Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland
- Israel Adesanya
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-1 at 185 lbs. 13-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Pereira, Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 14-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abus Magomedov, Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Nassourdine Imavov, Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Look, I know what the narrative is. Strickland has no chance. Adesanya is supposed to be the greatest middleweight of all time. Strickland got knocked out by Pereira, lost to Cannonier. But the facts are that Strickland has improved since the Cannonier loss. He out struck Imavov 175 to 104, showing 75 grade striking. And he showed that he could follow a game plan in the Magomedov win, by playing rope a dope in the 1st round. Was out struck 32 to 11 in the 1st. But then put his foot on the gas in the 2nd round, out landed Magomedov 56 to 15. If Strickland follows the likely game plan of mixing in some take downs, he’ll have a decent chance. And hey, I’ve cashed a couple nice tickets fading Adesanya. I also think Adesanya lost to Whittaker in their second fight and lost to Yoel Romero. On paper, not looking at the names, but just the skills, I give Strickland a slight edge by having the skill to take Adesanya down, same as Vettori was able to do. But I think Strickland has better cardio and better striking than Vettori. Specifically, Strickland is very good defensively. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Adesanya wins, but this idea that Adesanya should be a -600 favorite is bonkers.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Strickland -125
Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov
- Tai Tuivasa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I know Tuivasa is popular, but he’s been knocked out twice in a row. And now he has all this pressure of being in the co main event of a pay per view in Austrailia. The pressure of not wanting to lose 3 in a row. And Volkov’s striking is a proven 75. You know what you get with him. He’ll stay at range, use his reach advantage. I usually don’t feel that confident in heavyweight fights, but this one, I’m a tad more sure.
Chris’ Pick: Volkov by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Volkov -225
Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos
- Manel Kape
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Ode Osbourne, and a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker. Beat David Dvorak.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Felipe dos Santos
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The market closed with Kape as a -250 favorite over Dvorak, which I disagreed with. Market probably thinking Kape has 70 striking. But outside big 2nd round for Kape, the striking was close to equal. Which proves Kape’s striking is still a 65. Dos Santos is a worthy opponent, but the odds of him rolling in with the 65 striking tool he’d need to have a chance against Kape is low.
Chris’ Pick: Kape by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kape -225
Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Parker Porter and Juan Adams.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Austen Lane
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
The fight only lasted a minute, so totally a small sample size, but it looks like Tafa has elevated his striking to a 60. And that should be good enough to beat Lane, although it’s not my most confident pick as we haven’t seen much of Lane as well.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tafa -175
Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj
- Tyson Pedro
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Khalil Rountree. Knocked out Harry Hunsucker and Paul Craig.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Anton Turkalj
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 205 lbs. 1-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Despite Turkalj losing his last fight to Vitor Petrino, I was really impressed. Petrino has huge power and Turkalj’s chin held up. Cardio was great. Striking with Petrino was close to equal, which was a surprise. Pedro had a couple good fights, couple 1st round knockouts, where it looked like his skills took a step forward. But we have to keep in mind those wins were against Ike Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker. I think Turkalj is going to go grapple heavy here, test Pedro’s cardio, and will eventually catch him in a submission.
Chris’ Pick: Turkalj by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Turkalj -175
Carlos Ulberg vs Da Woon Jung
- Carlos Ulberg
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria, Nicolae Negumereanu, Tafon Nchukwi, an 8-2 striker, and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Da Woon Jung
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu and Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The key that led to Devin Clark upsetting Jung is the fact that Clark out struck him 26 to 7. Now, is it possible that Clark’s striking leveled up to a 60? Sure. But more likely, Jung’s striking is probably closer to a 60. But the big question in this fight is how good is Ulberg’s wrestling. Because Jung will test it and might get some take downs. Ulberg’s only UFC loss was when he gassed out trying to finish Kennedy Nzechukwu, so we’ll see how he manages his cardio here. But Ulberg should win, he has too much power and Jung was knocked out in his second to last fight.
Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ulberg -200
Jack Jenkins vs Jose Muriscal
- Jack Jenkins
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Don Shainis. Split decision over Jamall Emmers.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jose Mariscal
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat Trevor Peek and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Youssef Zalal. Split decision over Pat Sabatini.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The market closed with Jamall Emmers as a 2 to 1 favorite over Jenkins. Because they thought Emmers had 65 striking. I disagreed and thought Emmers and Jenkins both had 60 striking. Well, turns out I was right, striking was close to equal. But after the fact, I’m starting to think the more plausible thing that played out was Emmers having 65 striking all along, like the market thought, and Jenkins’ striking leveling up to a 65. Not the most confident in grading Jenkins striking there, I could be wrong, but I think that’s most likely where the tool is at.
Chris’ Pick: Jenkins by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jenkins -200
Jamie Mullarkey vs John Makdessi
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler. Split decision over Michael Johnson
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- John Makdessi
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Lando Vannata. Split decision loss to Yancy Medeiros.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Ignacio Bahamondes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I still think Mullarkey has some upside, but he’s been knocked out in 2 of his last 4 fights. Luckily for him, Makdessi’s not a KO threat.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mullarkey -250
Nasrat Haqparast vs Landon Quinones
- Nasrat Haqparast
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat John Makdessi, Rafa Garcia, and Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Landon Quinones
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Muhammadjon Naimov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 9-3 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Really close, coin flip type fight. I’m giving Haqparast a slight edge because I think his striking is closer to a 65. But Quinones is definitely a live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Haqparast by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Haqparast -125
Blood Diamond vs Charlie Radtke
- Blood Diamond
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Charlie Radtke
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 striker. Split decision over a 3-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (50)
- Grappling: average (50)
This matchup is tailor made to make Diamond look good. 0-2 start to his UFC career. Went against a couple wrestlers, one of them being Jeremiah Wells, and was controlled on the ground. But here, he takes on Radke who only has 50 grappling. So Diamond should finish this quick.
Chris’ Pick: Diamond by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Diamond -300
Gabriel Miranda vs Shane Young
- Gabriel Miranda
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Shane Young
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 16-5 fighter. Split decision over a 20-6 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I really made a mistake in under rating Miranda. Makes his UFC debut against Benoit St Denis, which we now know how good St Denis is. And the truth is Miranda didn’t do that bad. Got taken down, but I don’t think he minded playing his jiu jitsu game off his back. And striking was close to equal with St Denis as well. I really like Miranda against Young.
Chris’ Pick: Miranda by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Miranda -400
Kevin Jousset vs Kiefer Crosbie
- Kevin Jousset
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Split decision win over a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Kiefer Crosbie
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 16-11 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira. Beat a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Even though Alex Oliveira was released by the UFC, he can still fight, still has 60 tools. And Crosbie looked spectacular, has big power. Stayed composed, cardio looked fine. Oliveira is usually durable and Crosbie got him out in 4 minutes. On the flip side, I watched Jousset take on a 40 year old 11-1 fighter who I think had 55 tools. And Jousset got hit a lot. Allowed the opponent to push him against the fence for chunks of time. It wasn’t impressive. I think there’s going to be a massive power advantage for Crosbie.
Chris’ Pick: Crosbie by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Crosbie -400