Edson Barboza vs Sodiq Yusuff
- Edson Barboza
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 145 lbs. 17-13 overall UFC record.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Billy Quarantillo, Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker, and Beneil Dariush. Beat Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Sodiq Yusuff
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez. Submitted Don Shainis. Beat Alex Caceres, Andre Fili, and Mike Davis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
I know it would appear Yusuff is the A side. Young up and comer. 7 years younger than Barboza. He’s on the way up. But I’m convinced that Yusuff’s striking hasn’t moved past a 65 grade. His striking with Caceres was close to equal and I know Caceres doesn’t have 70 striking. Barboza is going to take down another potential contender.
Chris’ Pick: Barboza by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Barboza -250
Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo
- Jennifer Maia
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Casey O’Neill, Maryna Moroz, Jessica Eye, Alexis Davis, and Roxanne Modafferi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Andrea Lee, Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa ,and Alexis Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Even though Maia upset O’Neill, I don’t think anything has changed with Maia’s skills. I think it had more to do with O’Neill being a tad over rated. And on the Araujo side, her loss to Amanda Ribas has more to do with Ribas leveling up. I know Araujo’s striking is a 70 because her fight before Ribas was against champ Alexa Grasso and the striking was close to equal.
Chris’ Pick: Araujo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Araujo -275
Adrian Yanez vs Jonathan Martinez
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Kelley, Randy Costa, Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cub Swanson, Frankie Saenz, and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Said Nurmagomedov, Vince Morales, Alejandro Perez, Thomas Almeida, and Zviad Lavishvili.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Alright, so, Yanez got knocked out by Rob Font last time out. Bad result, right? Well, yes and no. Yes, he lost the fight. But in the 3 minutes the fight lasted, albeit a small sample, Font only out struck Yanez 27 to 25. And I’m convinced Font’s striking is a 75. So I have no choice but to finally upgrade Yanez’s striking tool to a 70 grade. And his 70 power is going to be way too much for Martinez.
Chris’ Pick: Yanez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Yanez -250
Michel Pereira vs Andre Petroski
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Submitted an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Wellington Turman. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Pereira has become much more efficient, being smarter on how he uses his energy. And for one of the first times, he’ll likely be the fighter with better cardio. Especially since Petroski is stepping in on a week’s notice. I expect Pereira to stuff take downs and cruise.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pereira -400
Christian Rodriguez vs Cameron Saaiman
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat Raul Rosas Jr and a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Cameron Saaiman
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell, a 6-0 grappler, and well rounded 5-1 fighter. Majority decision over Mana Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Saaiman has a lot of hype, looked great in his last fight, but let’s not forget, the fight before that, he barely squeaked out a majority decision win over Martinez, who went 2-2 in the UFC and got let go. Is it possible Saaiman shows up improved? Of course, he’s 22 years old, but based on what I’ve seen so far, Rodriguez has the better tools.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -225
Darren Elkins vs TJ Brown
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 17-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and Mirsad Bektic. Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- TJ Brown
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted Erik Silva, a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Kai Kamaka.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Elkins lost to Jonathan Pearce. Was taken down and controlled on the floor. But curiously, Elkins didn’t do too bad on the feet. Pearce only out struck him 66 to 49. Maybe Pearce was more reckless going for the finish, not feeling a threat. Or maybe Elkins striking is actually a 60 grade. And that question is really important because if his striking is a 60 grade, he’ll have a shot against Brown.
Chris’ Pick: Brown by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Brown -150
Tainara Lisboa vs Ravena Oliveira
- Tainara Lisboa
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Rose Clark.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ravena Oliveira
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Not much video on Oliveira out there, but the one fight I did find, she took on Sheila Amaral, about a year and a half ago. Amaral was making her pro debut and currently now has an 0-2 pro record. That said, I expected Oliveira to steamroll her, but instead the fight was competitive. Now, maybe Amaral turns out to be good and is just off to a bad start. But more than likely the fight shows that Oliveira is about average, is just a late notice opponent. And Lisboa should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Lisboa by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lisboa -450
Terrence McKinney vs Brendan Marotte
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Breeden, Matt Frevola, and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Brendan Marotte
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
It was shocking to see how much recency bias the market had when McKinney closed only a -290 favorite over Breeden. I thought McKinney should’ve been a -750 favorite. So how dominant was McKinney? He out struck Breeden 16 to 1. He was going to fight Chris Duncan, but Duncan pulls out and in steps Marotte on a week’s notice. Not much video on Marotte out there but he trains with the New England Cartel. But the chances of him having the skills needed to slow down McKinney are slim.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: McKinney -500
Irina Alekseeva vs Melissa Dixon
- Irina Alekseeva
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Stephanie Egger. Beat a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Melissa Dixon
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This is going to be an interesting fight as I can see Dixon wanting take downs and top control and Alekseeva being content to work her grappling from the back. But most likely, it’s a stand up fight where I’m more confident Aleksseva’s striking is a 60 than Dixon.
Chris’ Pick: Alekseeva by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Alekseeva -125
Chris Guttierez vs Heili Alateng
- Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa and Vince Morales. Beat Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Heili Alateng
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Gustavo Lopez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Croom and a 5-1 striker. Beat Chad Anheliger and Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’m finally coming around on Guttierez. I can’t deny his striking anymore after he out landed Pedro Munhoz 75 to 52. Tool is really close to a 70. And it seems like his wrestling has improved to a 65 too as Munhoz went for a takedown, got nowhere, and didn’t attempt another one. Guttierez should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Guttierez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Guttierez -300
Emily Ducote vs Ashley Yoder
- Emily Ducote
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-8
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: split decision loss to Kanako Murata.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 wrestler and a 10-2 striker. Submitted a well round 6-1 fighter. Beat Jessica Penne.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ashley Yoder
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to MacKenzie Dern and Randa Markos.
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Granger.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Even though Ducote was out classed by Angela Hill on the feet, she really bounced back against Loopy Godinez. Ducote lost, but the striking was close to equal so it looks like Ducote showed up improved. It’s possible Yoder shows up improved here as well. First fight in over two years. But she’s 35 years old with 10 UFC fights and I think she is who she is at this point.
Chris’ Pick: Ducote by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ducote -275