Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski 2
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 12-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green and Gleison Tibau. Submitted Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Alexander Volkanovski, Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Alexander Volkanovski
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 12-0 at 145 lbs. 12-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yair Rodriguez, The Korean Zombie and Chad Mendes. Beat Brian Ortega, Max Holloway thrice, and Jose Aldo.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
I could be wrong with where I’ve graded Volkanovski’s skills at 155 lbs. But I think he beat Makhachev 3 rounds to 2 in their first fight. And I do think the wrestling is equal here. Yes, Makhachev had over 7 minutes of control time in the fight, but the vast majority of those minutes came from two instances where Volkanovski made mistakes that resulted in Makhachev locking up body triangles. If those body triangles don’t happen, then the fight would’ve been on the feet longer. Is it possible Makhachev’s wrestling is a top of the scale 80 grade? Of course. But after rewatching Makhachev’s Oliveria fight and the Volkanovski fight, I think it’s a 75 grade. As for the striking, Volkanovski did out strike him 58 to 45. Maybe Makhachev has 75 striking, but I think it’s more likely a 70 tool. Obviously, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Makhachev wins here. But I think Volkanovksi gained more confidence as the fight wore on and we see a continuation of the end of their first fight. Confidence can do amazing things. Look what Leon Edwards did in his third fight with Kamaru Usman. It wasn’t Usman dominating at all. Edwards leveled up. I think same thing happens here with Volkanovski.
Chris’ Pick: Volkanovski by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Volkanovski -150
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kamaru Usman
- Khamzat Chimaev
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Holland and Jingliang Li. Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, a 10-2 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Gilbert Burns.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kamaru Usman
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 15-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Leon Edwards.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
In the third fight between Leon Edwards and Usman, Edwards did out strike him 111 to 65. But each round was close. Edwards won a very close majority decision, but I think it had more to do with Edwards elevating his tools vs Usman regressing all of a sudden. And this fight is interesting because both guys have been welterweights. This matchup is at middleweight. And we’ve seen Chimaev at 185 lbs. His tools carry over. The question is will Usman’s. I think there’s a good chance they will. Or at least the striking will. At least because Chimaev isn’t a massive middleweight like Paulo Costa for example. I don’t think Chimaev will be able to get take downs. I think this is similar to Chimaev vs Burns, but Usman has the better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Usman by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Usman -200
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out Anthony Smith. Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Draws: Fought Jan Blachowicz to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Thiago Santos, Nikita Krylov, and Klidson Abreu.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus wrestling (75)
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba. Beat Anthony Smith.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I was thinking maybe Smith’s striking was starting to regress going in to his fight with Ryan Spann. Everybody saw it as a coin flip fight. Then Smith out strikes Spann 90 to 50. Wow. So Smith’s striking hasn’t gone anywhere. Is still a 70. And now let’s go back. Walker out landed Smith 81 to 38. Wow. Can’t deny that Walker’s striking has leveled up to a 75. I’ll admit I’ve been going back and forth on how good Blachowicz’s striking is. He’s not consistent there. He fights Ankalaev and the striking is close to equal. But I’ve been up in the air on how good Ankalaev’s striking is too. Then Blachowicz takes on Alex Pereira and it’s case closed. Pereira had 75 striking at 185 lbs. Moves up to 205 lbs against Blachowicz. And Pereira out strikes him 62 to 41. There’s no way Pereira’s striking is all of a sudden a top of the scale 80 after moving up a weight class. So Blachowicz has 70 striking and Ankalaev also has 70 striking. Now, I could see Ankalaev winning a decision by taking Walker down repeatedly. But it’s a 3 round fight. Walker has huge power. I just think the chances of Walker catching him are pretty good.
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Walker -200
Warlley Alves vs Ikram Aliskerov
- Warlley Alves
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mounir Lazzez. Submitted Colby Covington in 2015.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ikram Aliskerov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Phil Hawes and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Submitted Mario Sousa, Dennis Tiuliulin, and an 11-3 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Aliskerov knocking Hawes out in 2 minutes was impressive. Although I wish I was able to see more of him, being that his fight on the Contender also only lasted 2 minutes. It’s possible his tools could be as high as 70’s but I just haven’t seen enough yet. Alves steps in on 2 weeks notice. Has plateaued in his skills 14 fights into his UFC career. I’d be very surprised if Aliskerov loses here.
Chris’ Pick: Aliskerov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Aliskerov -400
Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov
- Said Nurmagomedov
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Stamann, Ricardo Ramos, and Mark Striegl. Submitted Saidyokub Kahkramonov. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Muin Gafurov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-1 grappler, a 5-1 grappler, and a 10-2-1 grappler. Beat an 11-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Gafurov was way better than I thought he’d be. It’s very rare that fighters make their UFC debut and show up with 65 striking, but that’s what happened. Striking between Gafurov and John Castaneda was close to equal.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nurmagomedov -125
Muhammad Mokaev vs Tim Elliott
- Muhammad Mokaev
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jafel Filho, Malcolm Gordon, and Cody Durden. Beat Charles Johnson and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Tim Elliott
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 12-10
- Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Victor Altamirano, Tagir Ulanbekov, Louis Smolka, Ryan Benoit, and Jordan Espinosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Mokaev will likely open as a big favorite, but I see this as a razor close fight where the only edge I give to Mokaev is the power. Elliott is routinely faded, despite cashing as an underdog quite a bit.
Chris’ Pick: Mokaev by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mokaev -135
Trevor Peek vs Mohammad Yahya
- Trevor Peek
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Erick Gonzalez, Khama Worthy, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Mohammad Yahya
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Slight outside chance Yahya has 60 striking but I doubt it. He doesn’t thrown enough volume. He usually opts to load up on power punches. And being that his wrestling is a 50, I can see why they matched him up with Peek who also prefers striking. At first, Peek’s loss to Mariscal didn’t look good. But then Mariscal takes on Jack Jenkins and upsets Jenkins, so now Peek’s loss doesn’t look so bad. And I could be wrong, but based on how the striking was close to equal between Mariscal and Jenkins, I think Peek’s striking remains a 65. I could be over rating Peek and under rating Yahya, could be the case. But I’d have to be wrong on both for this fight to be close.
Chris’ Pick: Peek by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Peek -250
Javid Basharat vs Victor Henry
- Javid Basharat
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler. Submitted an 11-1 grappler. Beat Mateus Mendonca, Tony Gravely, and Trevin Jones
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Victor Henry
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 23-6
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision wins over Tony Gravely and Kyler Phillips.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Basharat has a lot of hype and momentum and rightly so. But Henry is a very live underdog. And it’s possible Henry’s cardio might be better than Basharat’s and that could fuel him to pull off the upset. That said, I think Basharat having a little more power and doing a bit more damage will be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Basharat by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Basharat -125
Abu Azaitar vs Sediques Dumas
- Abu Azaitar
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 14-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a 12-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Sedriques Dumas
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker. Beat Cody Brundage.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Is Dumas’ wrestling really a 65?? I had it as a 55 going into the Brundage fight. Thought Brundage had 60 grappling. But Dumas grounded Brundage, had more than 11 minutes of control time over 3 rounds. So Brundage’s grappling is probably a 55 instead. But for Dumas to dominate like that, it means the wrestling should be a 65, although it’s possible I could be over rating him a tad. Also possible his striking leveled up to a 65 but we didn’t really see any stand up against Brundage. Azaitar returns for his first fight in over 2 and a half years. Normally I’d say a fighter coming back off a long layoff should show up improved, but Azaitar is 37 years old which makes that not as likely.
Chris’ Pick: Dumas by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dumas -135
Anshul Jubli vs Mike Breeden
- Anshul Jubli
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-1 fighter. Beat a 4-0 striker. Split decision over a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Mike Breeden
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-6
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Fight could go either way. Breeden will have more power, we’ll see how Jubli’s chin holds up. But the fight will probably come down to how good Jubli’s cardio is and whether he can grind out a win on the ground if he needs to.
Chris’ Pick: Jubli by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jubli -125
Nathaniel Wood vs Muhammad Naimov
- Nathaniel Wood
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez, Beat Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain, and Charles Rosa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Muhammad Naimov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-1 striker. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
A short notice knockout win over Mullarkey is already plenty good. But what makes the win even better is that Naimov also fought up a weight class. Now he moves back down to his natural weight class and with a full camp, it’s possible his striking could be as high as a 70. He’s worlds better since we saw him with Collin Anglin on the Contender Series. Could be a close fight depending on how good Naimov is, but Wood is most likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Wood by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Wood -300
Viktoriia Dudakova vs Jinh Yu Frey
- Viktoriia Dudakova
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Maria Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jinh Yu Frey
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision losses to Vanessa Demopoulos and Jodie Esquibel.
- Key Wins: Beat Ashley Yoder, Gloria de Paula, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’ve had Frey’s striking as a 60, but it looks like the tool regressed against Elise Reed. Frey is 38 years old now. I know Reed’s striking isn’t better than a 60 as Loopy Godinez routed Reed on the feet. I think the chances of Dudakova catching Frey in a submission is pretty good, but if not, she should be better than Frey on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Dudakova by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Dudakova -275
Bruno Silva vs Shara Magomedov
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares, Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Shara Magomedov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 16-4 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat a 21-5 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I can’t deny Silva anymore. He’s gotten way better, despite getting submitted by Brendan Allen in his last fight. I thought Allen would be able to take Silva down for sure. But instead Silva was able to stuff the take down attempts. And I know Allen has 75 grappling with how he out grappled Andre Muniz. It’s possible Magomedov could have 65 striking. His resume is really strong. But I watched one of his last fights and he got hit a lot, so I’m grading it a 60 for now.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -275