#14 Gegard Mousasi (4-1) vs. Ilir Latifi (0-0, #31 LHW Prospect)
Pick: Gegard Mousasi – I see this situation being very similar to when Nate Marquardt was pulled from a cable card and rising UFC prospect had to fight Charlie Brenneman instead. And Brenneman pulled the upset, largely because Story trained for one style of fighter in Marquardt but only on a few days notice, had to fight a completely different fighter. That same scenario is now unfolding for Gegard Mousasi. Because Latifi is so much more of a wrestler than Alexander Gustafsson. And the last time Mousasi fought a couple wrestlers, he got outwrestled and lost. I’m really tempted to pick Latifi. But with only a few days notice, I don’t think he’ll have the cardio to keep Mousasi down. I think Gegard will keep the fight on the feet and win at least two rounds with more technical, superior striking.
#9 Brad Pickett (5-3) vs. #14 Mike Easton (3-1)
Pick: Brad Pickett – This should really be the Main Event. But I digress. Really tough fight to pick. But I have to go with Pickett. He has a win over flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson and has only lost to top 10 fighters. Meanwhile Easton is coming off an uninspiring loss to Raphael Assuncao. And that close win over former UFC fighter Jared Papazian sticks in my mind too.
#21 Ryan Couture (4-1) vs. #22 Ross Pearson (5-2)
Pick: Ross Pearson – This fight is a very, very tall order for young Ryan Couture. Plus, just like Mousasi, it’s his UFC debut and he’s fighting a veteran who’s coming into his own in Ross Pearson. After a brief stint at featherweight, Pearson returned to lightweight and destroyed George Sotiropolous in the most impressive fight of his career. Meanwhile, Couture won a controversial split decision against K.J. Noons. I think Couture will continue to get better and improve but Pearson is too much, too soon. Hopefully this fight doesn’t wreck Ryan’s confidence.
#21 Robert Peralta (2-0) vs. #32 Akira Corassani (1-0)
Pick: Robert Peralta – Corassani comes into his second fight in the UFC after being on a very talented season of The Ultimate Fighter. But Peralta has devastating knockout power and is more talented. This fight shouldn’t last too long.
#22 Diego Brandao (2-1) vs. #24 Pablo Garza (3-3)
Pick: Diego Brandao – Since winning the Ultimate Fighter, Brandao looked like the next best thing at featherweight. But then he lost to Darren Elkins and people were wondering what happened to Brandao. Well, as Elkins creeps toward a title contention, it’s starting to look like not as bad of a loss. Brandao is still a young fighter and still has room to improve. Garza is coming into his own to coming off a big win over Mark Hominick, but Hominick was a shell of himself in that fight and I still remember that Garza is the guy that lost to Tiequan Zhang.
#23 Matt Mitrione (5-2) vs. #24 Phil De Fries (2-2)
Pick: Mat Mitrione – Mitrione is developing a knack for beating guys that don’t belong in the UFC, while losing to upper tier gatekeepers like Cheick Kongo and Roy Nelson. I think De Fries is somewhere in between and think because the division is so thin he’ll stick around, but Mitrione’s raw power should be good enough for a knockout here.
#15 Marcus Brimage (3-0) vs. Conor McGregor (0-0, #5 FW Prospect)
Pick: Marcus Brimage – I have no clue how this is not on the main card. Conor McGregor is heavily hyped and clocks in ranked #5 on my top featherweight mma prospects. Meanwhile Brimage is 3-0 in the UFC and has a big win over Jimy Hettes under his belt. I’m tempted to pick McGregor, but I think Jimy Hettes is a tremendous fighter who has a ton of upside and Brimages thoroughly beat him. So I have to pick Marcus Brimage.
#24 Michael Johnson (4-3) vs. Reza Madadi (1-1)
Pick: Michael Johnson – Johnson has to be one of the more inconsistent fighters in the lightweight division. You never know what you’re going to get with him. I’m tempted to pick Madadi in an upset, but his loss against Cristiano Marcello makes me question the legitimacy of him being a UFC prospect. Johnson will out strike Madadi to pick up the win.
#29 Michael Kuiper (1-1) vs. #37 Tom Lawlor (4-4)
Pick: Michael Kuiper – Tom Lawlor is better than his record indicates. I really think, just like a lot of people do, that Lawlor beat climbing contender Francis Carmont. Kuiper lost in his debut by being outwrestled by Rafael Natal, but looked good in his last fight knocking out Jared Hamman. I don’t think Lawlor has the wrestling Natal did, so I think this fight will take place on the feet where Kuiper has the advantage.
#44 Ben Alloway (1-0) vs. Ryan LaFlare (0-0)
Pick: Ryan LaFlare – Interesting matchup. LaFlare is an undefeated mma prospect who has finishes in all his fights but all of his opponents were tomato cans. So with a fighter like LaFlare, it’s difficult to know exactly how good he is until he fights better competition. Alloway has a win in the UFC, but I don’t think he’s that great. I feel like the Australian mma prospect scene is still suspect and the losses Alloway has were against bad fighters. So I’ll take LaFlare. At least he hasn’t lost yet.
Tor Troeng (0-0, #36 MW Prospect) vs. Adam Cella (0-0)
Pick: Adam Cella – This is my upset special on the card. Troeng has more experience, is in his hometown and Cella was last seen on the Ultimate Fighter being kicked in the face and knocked out from Uriah Hall. However, before Cella was knocked out, he was looking very good in the fight and was taking the fight to Hall. And the fight game is a young man’s game. Troeng isn’t the oldest fighter but he’s got a ton of fights under his belt, which means a lot of wear and tear. I think Cella has some real talent.
Chris Spang (0-0, #49 WW Prospect) vs. Adlan Amagov (0-0)
Pick: Chris Spang – Spang looked great in his last fight knocking out Nah Shon Burrell. Amagov has a questionable chin. I think that’s a formula for a Spang win.
Besam Yousef (0-1) vs. Papy Abedi (0-2)
Pick: Papy Abedi – This is definitely a loser leaves town fight. Abedi was really fed to the wolves in his first two fights, battling against Thiago Alves and James Head. Yousef really isn’t good enough to be in the UFC and this a good fight to give Abedi another try at making a run in the UFC.