Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Chris Curtis, Edmen Shahbazyan and Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Joseph Pyfer
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, Alen Amedovski, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Hermansson’s last loss to Roman Dolidze was of the fluky variety. Hermansson got stuck in an awkward position which led to the loss. Stuff like that doesn’t happen often. But Hermansson out struck Dolidze 43 to 12, Hermansson was clearly winning the fight. My point is that his skills are still intact and most importantly, he’s proven to be durable. Hermansson has only been knocked out once in the last 7 years, by Jared Cannonier. And Hermansson has great cardio, has gone 5 rounds. Pyfer has never gone 5 rounds and with how explosive he is, I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep up with Hermansson’s pace.
Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hermansson -200
Dan Ige vs Andre Fili
- Dan Ige
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Nate Landwehr and Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Andre Fili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lucas Almeida, Gabriel Benitez, and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision wins over Bill Algeo and Charles Jourdain.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ige by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ige -250
Ihor Potieria vs Robert Bryczek
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua and an 8-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Robert Bryczek
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 17-5
- Key Losses: Lost to a 6-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 16-5 fighter, a 7-1 striker, a 9-1 striker, a 7-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a 7-1 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Look. I’m aware I could be under rating Bryczek. I’m aware he skipped the Contender, UFC just signed him out right. And he makes his debut on the main card, third from the top. Usually those guys are good. He’s got five 1st round knockouts in a row. All less than 3 minutes. And that’s great. A lot of fighters can look great when they blitz their opponent at the start. But I watched his last fight that went over 3 minutes against a 6-4 striker. And I wasn’t that impressed. Well rounded, but all his tools were 55’s. That was 2021. Maybe he’s gotten better since then? But we haven’t seen it yet. Potieria steps in on less than a week’s notice. And he lost his last fight. But it wasn’t because Rodolfo Bellato is better. Potieria had him knocked down, had him beat, but got too aggressive going for the finish. Gassed out. I think both guys are aggressive here, both think they can get the 1st round KO.
Chris’ Pick: Potieria by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Potieria -250
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brad Tavares
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Dennis Tiuliulin, Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 15-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou. Split decision over Omari Akhmedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -175
Michael Johnson vs Darius Flowers
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-13 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dustin Poirier. Beat Marc Diakiese and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Darrius Flowers
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-2 striker, a 4-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Flowers surprised me by being able to take Jake Matthews down in the 1st round of their fight. But I think he put on too hard of a pace and ran out of gas in the 2nd.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Johnson -200
Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan
- Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Dustin Stoltzfus, Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and AJ Dobson. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Petrosyan’s last fight with Duncan has made me start to question whether his striking tool is really a 70. I thought Duncan had 65 striking going in, but the striking in the fight was close to equal. Being that the market had Duncan as a -165 favorite, I think what happened is Duncan is that good, with 70 striking as well. Could be wrong though. And I also think Petrosyan improved his wrestling to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petrosyan -200
Trevin Giles vs Carlos Prates
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Louis Cosce and Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Preston Parsons and Ryan Spann.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Carlos Prates
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I could be over rating Prates wrestling, it could be a 55. But that shouldn’t matter against Giles.
Chris’ Pick: Prates by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Prates -350
Bolaji Oki vs Timothy Cuamba
- Bolaji Oki
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Beat an 11-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Timothy Cuamba
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Okay. I’ll buy that maybe the market was right that Dylan Salvador has 60 striking. That said. Oki out struck him 29 to 12. Impressive.
Chris’ Pick: Oki by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Oki -350
Loma Lookboonmee vs Bruna Brasil
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed. Beat Denise Gomes, Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Bruna Brasil
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-3-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marnic Mann. Submitted a well rounded 2-0 fighter. Beat Shauna Bannon and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Brasil by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Brasil -175
Devin Clark vs Marcin Prachnio
- Devin Clark
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
- Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight. Beat Da Un Jung, Alonzo Menifield, and Mike Rodriguez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Marcin Prachnio
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ike Villanueva. Beat William Knight and Khalil Rountree.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I see no reason why Clark won’t be able to do the same thing to Prachnio that Vitor Petrino was able to do.
Chris’ Pick: Clark by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Clark -225
Jeremiah Wells vs Max Griffin
- Jeremiah Wells
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 12-3-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Court McGee, Warlley Alves, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Blood Diamond and a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler. Split decision over Matthew Semelsberger.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Max Griffin
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-9
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry. Split decision over Tim Means.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Wells by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Wells -300
Zac Pauga vs Bogdan Guskov
- Zac Pauga
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Jordan Wright, Markus Perez, a 5-2 wrestler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bogdan Guskov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-3 fighter and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Guskov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Guskov -175
Hyder Amil vs Fernie Garcia
- Hyder Amil
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 14-4 striker. Split decision win over a 9-7 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Fernie Garcia
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Garcia by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Garcia -125
Daniel Marcos vs Qileng Aori
- Daniel Marcos
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Saimon Oliveira and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out Cameron Else and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Johnny Munoz Jr, Jay Perrin, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Munoz Jr had some success taking Qileng down. Well, Marcos is an even better wrestler and should be able to use his wrestling to win.
Chris’ Pick: Marcos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Marcos -400