Bin Xie vs Masuto Kawana
- Bin Xie
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Masuto Kawana
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Split decision loss to a 10-8 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a 6-0 striker and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Kawana’s wrestling was better than I thought. The tool is close to a 65, but the reason it’s still a 60 for me is he doesn’t have the cardio to carry it at that high a level through the whole fight. He gassed pretty bad in the middle of the 2nd round. Bin’s striking took a step forward in his fight with Yibugele with Bin out landing him 109 to 48.
Chris’ Pick: Kawana by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kawana -175
Ming Shi vs Huaxiang Dong
- Ming Shi
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-3 grappler, a 10-3 striker and a well rounded 14-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Huaxiang Dong
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat Feier Huang and a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I think Ming’s cardio is questionable. See Huaxiang having an edge there.
Chris’ Pick: Huaxiang by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Huaxiang -125
Shin Haraguchi vs Kangjie Zhu
- Shin Haraguchi
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter and Sang Won Kim. Beat Jae Hyun Park.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kangjie Zhu
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to a 10-10 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 grappler. Beat a well rounded 14-3 fighter and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Haraguchi closed as a monster -700 favorite going into his fight with Jun Young Hong. I thought the number was a tad high, thought fair value for him was more -400. That said, Haraguchi underperformed. He won the fight with ground control. Had the cardio to wrestle Hong for all 3 rounds. But Hong kept getting back up and Haraguchi got nowhere close to getting a submission on the ground. I’m close to downgrading his grappling to a 60. I wasn’t the only one who thought Ando had 60 tools as the Ando closed as a -125 favorite over Kangjie. But then Kangjie dominated from start to finish out striking Ando a preposterous 60 to 13. Ando’s striking is probably a 55 instead, but Kangjie definitely has 65 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Kangjie by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kangjie -175
Xiaocan Feng vs Miki Motono
- Xiaocan Feng
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Feier Huang and a 7-3 grappler. Submitted Miki Motono. Beat a 14-5 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Miki Motono
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-4
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Even though Xiaocan clearly had a size advantage over her last opponent, who usually fights at 105 lbs, I still thought Xiaocan looked improved from the last time I saw her against Motono.
Chris’ Pick: Xiaocan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Xiaocan -325
Samandar Murodov vs Jonathan Piersma
- Samandar Murodov
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 19-3 wrestler. Beat a 9-0 grappler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jonathan Piersma
- Age: 28
- Pro Reccord: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
It’s possible I could be over rating Murodov a tad, but he was so impressive in his Road to UFC fight against a well rounded 19-4 fighter. The opponent missed weight by 4 lbs. But Murodov still took him down and spent the whole fight in top control before getting the submission at the end of the 1st round. I’m pretty confident Piersma’s striking isn’t better than a 55. I watched his last fight against a 4-0 striker and Piersma got hit a lot.
Chris’ Pick: Murodov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Murodov -300