Lerone Murphy vs Josh Emmett
- Lerone Murphy
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos. Beat Dan Ige, Edson Barboza, Josh Culibao, Douglas Silva de Andrade, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Gabriel Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Josh Emmett
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 8-3 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bryce Mitchell, Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Beat Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. Split decision over Calvin Kattar.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
For a moment, I thought Murphy had elevated his striking to a 75 because of what he did to Barboza. But he only out struck Ige 37 to 32. And the grappling exchanges went back and forth. Matter of fact Ige had almost 5 minutes of control time vs Murphy with just over 2 minutes. Murphy was dropped by Ige and almost knocked out. I don’t trust his chin against Emmett.
Chris’ Pick: Emmett by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Emmett -135
Joanderson Brito vs Pat Sabatini
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Jack Shore, Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Almeida, Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat TJ Laramie, Tucker Lutz, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Sabatini is like a featherweight version of Khamzat Chimaev. The approach is similar. Blitz, go as hard as you can trying to get the finish as fast as possible. Sabatini is now 8 fights into his UFC career and we don’t have much video of him at all on the feet. I’m projecting his striking to be a 65, but very possible it’s as low as a 65. Very real possibility too that his grappling leveled up to a 75 with what he did to Pearce. Question though is could he sustain that pace for 15 minutes.
Chris’ Pick: Brito by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brito -200
Cortavious Romious vs Changho Lee
- Cortavious Romious
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Changho Lee
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhawupasi Daermisi and an 11-1 grappler. Split decision over Long Xiao.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Romious by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Romious -135
Brad Tavares vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 15-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou. Split decision over Omari Akhmedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 12-10
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Andre Petroski, Kevin Holland, and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Edmen Shahbazyan, Bryan Barberena, Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Meerschaert by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Meerschaert -125
Luis Gurule vs Ode Osbourne
- Luis Gurule
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter, a 12-4 wrestler, and a 9-3 wrestler. Split decision over Nick Piccininni.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara. Split decision over Charles Johnson.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Gurule by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gurule -250
Torrez Finney vs Robert Valentin
- Torrez Finney
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker and a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-0 grappler. Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Robert Valentin
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker, a 10-3 wrestler, and an 11-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Valentin’s grappling could be as high as a 65, but it’s hard to tell as he gassed out trying to submit Ryan Loder in the 1st round of their fight.
Chris’ Pick: Finney by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Finney -200
Diana Belbita vs Dione Barbosa
- Diana Belbita
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Wins: Beat Maria Oliveira and Hannah Goldy. Majority decision win over a 0-2 fighter in 2017.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Dione Barbosa
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Ernesta Kareckaite and Karine Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
It’s possible Belbita’s wrestling could be as low as a 55. Belbita also only has 7 UFC fights in the last 6 years.
Chris’ Pick: Barbosa by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Barbosa -200
Rhys McKee vs Daniel Frunza
- Rhys McKee
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-6-1
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chidi Njokuani.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert in 2016, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Daniel Frunza
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler, a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 16-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Despite the ugly 0-4 UFC record and the boring split decision loss to Njokuani, McKee showed up with dramatically better wrestling and clinch work in the Njokuani fight. He also out struck Ange Loosa 70 to 45, so his striking tool is a very legit 65. Could be even as high as a 70. He might be the UFC’s most skilled 0-4 fighter in history.
Chris’ Pick: McKee by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McKee -350
Loma Lookboonmee vs Istela Nunes
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed. Beat Bruna Brasil, Denise Gomes, Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Istela Nunes
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-5
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Sam Hughes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Lookboonmee has been fighting once a year since 2022. But despite that, she has gotten better. Based on her out striking Brasil 47 to 22, I have no choice but to finally upgrade her striking to a 65. Nunes has really, really improved on her wrestling. Tool is close to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Nunes by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nunes -175
Victor Henry vs Pedro Falcao
- Victor Henry
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rani Yahya and Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision wins over Tony Gravely and Kyler Phillips.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Pedro Falcao
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 14-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Henry by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Henry -250
Uran Satybaldiev vs Martin Buday
- Uran Satybaldiev
- Age: NA
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 striker. Submitted a 9-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Martin Buday
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Josh Parisian. Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jake Collier and Chris Barnett. Split decision wins over Andrei Arlovski and Lukas Brzeski.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Satybaldiev takes this fight on a few days notice and normally fights at 205 lbs. His tools won’t play as well against a real heavyweight in Buday.
Chris’ Pick: Buday by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Buday -135
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Talita Alencar
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Kanako Murata and Maria Oliveira. Split decision over Emily Ducote.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Talita Alencar
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-1-1
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Stephanie Luciano to a draw.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Rayanne dos Santos.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Alencar by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Alencar -225
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