Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley 2
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Beat Sean O’Malley, Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus plus (80)
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling, Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Marlon Vera and Andre Soukhamthath.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
O’Malley’s striking is really close to a top of the scale 80. I thought it was an 80 going into the 1st Dvalishvili fight. It’s close. Right on the bubble. I’m going against the narrative here in saying the first fight was close and I actually thought O’Malley won rounds 1, 3, and 5. O’Malley has also been resting his body for almost a year now. He’s a very live underdog here. I won’t be surprised at all if he wins.
Chris’ Pick: Dvalishvili by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dvalishvili -125
Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison
- Julianna Pena
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Amanda Nunes and Sarah Moras. Beat Cat Zingano and Nicco Montano. Split decision over Raquel Pennington.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Kayla Harrison
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 18-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Ketlen Vieira, Aspen Ladd, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Very real chance I’m under rating Harrison’s striking. It could be a 70, but she’s been so dominant with her wrestling, we rarely see her stand up. I think Pena’s cardio is going to be the difference here. I don’t think Harrison can go hard for 5 whole rounds at 135 lbs. Think she’ll run out of gas.
Chris’ Pick: Pena by 4th round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pena -200
Joe Pyfer vs Kelvin Gastelum
- Joe Pyfer
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, Alen Amedovski, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 170 lbs. 12-9 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Daniel Rodriguez, Chris Curtis and Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I can’t grade Gastelum’s striking a 70 after Rodriguez out struck him 127 to 105.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pyfer -300
Patchy Mix vs Mario Bautista
- Patchy Mix
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 20-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Sergio Pettis, Andre Ewell, Tony Gravely, an 11-1 grappler, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Knocked out a 19-1 wrestler. Split decision over a 20-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. Beat Ricky Simon, Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler. Split decision over Jose Aldo.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Mix’s striking is right on the bubble between 65-70 for me. Probably a tad closer to 70, but I could be wrong. He under performed the market last time out.
Chris’ Pick: Bautista by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bautista -125
Kevin Holland vs Vicente Luque
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 170 lbs. 14-9 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Gunnar Nelson and Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Vicente Luque
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 15-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Themba Gorimbo, Michael Chiesa, and Tyron Woodley. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holland -135
Joshua Van vs Bruno Silva
- Joshua Van
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Rei Tsuruya, Cody Durden, and Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Rodriguez, JP Buys, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted Tyson Nam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Van by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Van -300
Brendan Ribeiro vs Azamat Murzakanov
- Brendson Ribeiro
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Diyar Nurgozhay, Antonio Arroyo, and a 6-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter and a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Caio Machado.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Azamat Murzakanov
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Devin Clark, Tafon Nchukwi, Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Murzakanov out struck Menifield 43 to 15. Very legit 70 tool as I know without a doubt Menifield’s striking is no worse than a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Murzakanov by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Murzakanov -250
Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcin Tybura, Derrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Robelis Despagne, Andre Arlovski, Chase Sherman, and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Cortes-Acosta neutralized Spann’s take downs and out struck Spann 59 to 22. But I’m not ready to say Cortes-Acosta showed up improved because I think Spann is towards the end of his career and has regressed. But I could be wrong.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Spivac -225
Khaos Williams vs Andreas Gustafsson
- Khaos Williams
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randy Brown.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, Miguel Baeza, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over Rolando Bedoya.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andreas Gustafsson
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Joilton Lutterbach.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a 10-2 wrestler, and an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Gustufsson has a little bit of hype and I might be under rating him a tad. Could have 60 tools. For a bit, I thought Giles striking might have elevated to a 70 after he out struck Carlos Prates but that seems to be an outlier as Mike Malott was able to out strike him 59 to 34.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Williams -350
Wang Cong vs Ariane da Silva
- Wang Cong
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat Wu Yanan and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ariane da Silva
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Casey O’Neil, Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat JJ Aldrich and Mandy Bohm. Split decision over Melissa Gatto.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Hard for me to deny giving da Silva a 70 grade on her striking when she out struck Jasmine Jasudavicius 41 to 24 in her last fight. If there were any questions about Cong’s striking being a 70, she put those to rest as she out struck Brasil 102 to 30 in her last fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cong by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cong -125
Jeka Saragih vs Joo Sang Yoo
- Jeka Saragih
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out Lucas Alexander and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Joo Sang Yoo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Saragih getting submitted by Westin Wilson in less than 2 minutes raised a big red flag with me. Not because Wilson is bad. He’s a pretty good grappler. It’s because it was so quick, but also paired with the fact that Saragih was out classed on the ground by Anshul Jubli. Very possible Yoo’s wrestling could be as high as a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Yoo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yoo -250
Quillan Salkilld vs Yanal Ashmouz
- Quillan Salkilld
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anshul Jubli, a 3-1 grappler, and a 6-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Yanal Ashmouz
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sam Patterson and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Salkilld by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Salkilld -135
MarQuel Mederos vs Mark Choinski
- MarQuel Mederos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-3 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Landon Quinones and a 5-0 wrestler. Split decision over Austin Hubbard.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Mark Choinski
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted 4-1 grappler. Beat 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Mederos by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mederos -125
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