Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley
- Kamaru Usman
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 15-3
- Key Losses: Majority decision losses to Khamzat Chimaev and Leon Edwards.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Andre Fialho, Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Nursulton Ruziboev, Alex Morono and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Buckley -125
Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick
- Rose Namajunas
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-2 at 125 lbs. 13-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Amanda Ribas and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira, Sabina Mazo, DeAnna Bennett, and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Jamey-Lyn Horth, Dione Barbosa, Andrea Lee, Gillian Robertson, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Manon Fiorot out struck Erin Blanchfield not too long ago and that fight firmly established that Blanchfield’s striking is just a 70. So when Blanchfield fights Namajunas and the striking is close to equal, I think yes, it’s possible Blanchfield improved on the feet. But Namajunas has 18 UFC fights. I think it’s more likely she’s starting to regress. And Namajunas’ grappling also looked like a 65 in the Blanchfield fight. But! I could be wrong if Blanchfield has improved her striking to a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Namajunas by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Namajunas -175
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Petroski
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dylan Budka, AJ Dobson, Dalcha Lungiambula, Brad Tavares, and Charles Byrd.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Dylan Budka, Josh Fremd, and Wellington Turman. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Shahbazyan -135
Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos
- Cody Garbrandt
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-5 at 135 lbs. 9-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Trevin Jones and Dominick Cruz.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cristian Quinonez and Chris Guttierez. Beat Payton Talbott, Trevin Jones, Khalid Taha, and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Garbrandt by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Garbrandt -250
Mansur-Abdul Malik vs Cody Brundage
- Mansur Abdul-Malik
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nick Klein, Dusko Todorovic, and Wesley Schultz.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez, Zachary Reese and Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
This might go against the narrative but I think it’s possible Abdul-Malik’s striking could be a 60. Because he was out struck by Klein 26 to 6.
Chris’ Pick: Abdul-Malik by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Abdul-Malik -200
Oumar Sy vs Alonzo Menifield
- Oumar Sy
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted George Tokkos. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Da Woon Jung and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-5-1
- Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute. Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Dustin Jacoby. Split decision over Julius Walker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Sy’s striking tool is indeed a legit 70 as he out struck Jung 78 to 25. He looks like a future title contender.
Chris’ Pick: Sy by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sy -500
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
- Paul Craig
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-6-1 at 205 lbs. 9-10-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomed Ankalaev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Rodolfo Bellato
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jimmy Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 4-1 striker. Submitted a 5-1 striker and an 11-4 striker. Beat a 15-5 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Craig by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Craig -135
Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee
- Michael Chiesa
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 170 lbs. 13-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Max Griffin, Tony Ferguson, and Beneil Dariush. Beat Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Court McGee
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 10-12
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Key Wins: Beat Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
It was already impressive enough as it was when all McGee needed was one take down to submit Means. But even more impressive was that McGee out struck Means 14 to 5. Despite being 39 years old, McGee has never been this good.
Chris’ Pick: McGee by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McGee -135
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho
- Malcolm Wellmaker
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cameron Saaiman, a 13-2 striker, and a 5-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Kris Moutinho
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 17-12 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker. Beat a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I understand the logic of making this fight. Moutinho is famous for being etxra durable in his fight with Sean O’Malley. But that was one good night. 4 of Moutinho’s 6 losses have been via KO. On the other hand, Wellmaker has these two flashy KO’s, but there’s nothing in the numbers that tell me Wellmaker’s striking is any better than a 60. Saaiman was actually out striking Wellmaker 9 to 6 up until the knockout.
Chris’ Pick: Wellmaker by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Wellmaker -200
Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa
- Cody Durden
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-5-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted Matt Schnell and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jose Ochoa
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Lone’er Kavanagh gets a ton of hype. Well, in Ochoa’s UFC debut, the striking between him and Kavanagh was 50 to 49. Doesn’t get much closer. Ochoa also stuffed both take down attempts. And it’s also possible that I’ve been under rating Kavanagh, so I could be under rating Ochoa as well.
Chris’ Pick: Durden by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Durden -225
Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jack Shore and Merab Dvalishvili. Knocked out Javid Basharat and Raphael Assuncao. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Cameron Smotherman
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat Jake Hadley. Split decision win over a well rounded 2-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Credit to Smotherman who’s really good and coming in on less than a week’s notice. But if Serhiy Sidey had success taking him down, I’m pretty sure Simon will too.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Simon -250
Phil Rowe vs Ange Loosa
- Phil Rowe
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Neil Magny.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price, Jason Witt, Orion Cosce, and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ange Loosa
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Beat Rhys McKee and AJ Fletcher. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Loosa showed huge, huge improvements in his wrestling in his last fight with Gabriel Bonfim. Slight chance I’m over rating it, but probably not.
Chris’ Pick: Loosa by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Loosa -350
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Kanako Murata and Maria Oliveira. Split decision over Emily Ducote.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Veronica Hardy.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 grappker. Knocked out a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Beat Hailey Cowan. Split decision over Ivana Petrovic.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Horth by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Horth -300