Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 15-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Brady. Beat Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Gabriel Bonfim
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Khaos Williams, Trevin GIles, Mounir Lazzez, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out Randy Brown, a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat Ange Loosa. Split decision over Stephen Thompson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
It now appears that maybe Muhammad had an off night against Jack Della Maddalena when he was out struck 167 to 116 because he bounced back and was out struck by a closer margin with Ian Machado Garry 66 to 52. This fight will probably go the distance as the last time Muhammad by knocked out was 10 years ago.
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bonfim -135
Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 14-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Renier de Ridder and Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Marvin Vettori, Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Chris Curtis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Dylan Budka, AJ Dobson, Dalcha Lungiambula, Brad Tavares, and Charles Byrd. Beat Andre Petroski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Shahbazyan -135
Tom Nolan vs Fares Ziam
- Tom Nolan
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Martinez, a 12-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Charlie Campbell. Beat Slava Borshchev.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nazim Sadykhov and Matt Frevola. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Mike Davis, Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini. Split decision over Claudio Puelles.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Pretty sure Ziam leveled up his wrestling to a 70 after his win over Sadykhov.
Chris’ Pick: Nolan by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nolan -135
Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna
- Bryce Mitchell
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles. Knocked out Kron Gracie. Beat Said Nurmagomedov, Dan Ige, Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Bobby Moffett.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Santiago Luna
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Quang Le. Beat Angel Pacheco.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
On the one hand, when Luna closed as a crazy -800 favorite against Pacheco, he really under performed. Pacheco was able to get back up repeatedly and even won the 1st round. On the other hand, Mitchell is new to 135 lbs and his chin hasn’t been tested yet at the new weight class.
Chris’ Pick: Mitchell by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mitchell -200
Junior Tafa vs Iwo Baraniewski
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Christian, Sean Sharaf, Parker Porter, and a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Iwo Baraniewski
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane, Ibo Aslan, and a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Baraniewski by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Baraniewski -225
Alessandro Costa vs Matt Schnell
- Alessandro Costa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Stewart Nicoll, Kevin Borjas, Jimmy Flick and a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a 12-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-9 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Su Mudaerji, Louis Smolka, and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -250
Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis
- Marcus McGhee
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Journey Newson. Knocked out Gaston Bolanos, JP Buys, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Jonathan Martinez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- John Yannis
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Cameron Smotherman.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Siraj and Nick Aguirre. Split decision over a 7-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
McGhee might have lost his last fight to now champ Petr Yan, but crazy stat, McGhee actually out struck Yan 62 to 58. So there’s a very real possibility I’m not grading his striking high enough, very close to a 75.
Chris’ Pick: McGhee by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McGhee -500
Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Charles Johnson.
- Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Rodriguez, JP Buys, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted Hyun Sung Park and Tyson Nam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Edgar Chairez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Submitted CJ Vergara, Daniel Lacerda, and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker. Split decision over Felipe Bunes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Silva by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -135
Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler
- Priscila Cachoeira
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josiane Nunes, Ariane Lipski, Gina Mazany, and Shana Dobson. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Chelsea Chandler
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julija Stoliarenko and a 3-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Josiane Nunes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Chandler by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chandler -135
Joanderson Brito vs Jordan Leavitt
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Jack Shore, Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Isaac Thomson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Kurt Holobaugh, Matt Sayles, and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Knocked out Victor Martinez. Beat Yadier del Valle. Split decision over Trey Ogden.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Brito by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brito -200
Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duban
- Jeisla Chaves
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Split decision win over a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Yuneisy Duban
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Duban by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Duban -225
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi
- Ketlen Souza
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Split decision losses to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill.
- Key Wins: Submitted Yazmin Jauregui. Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat Bruna Brasil and Marnic Mann.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ariane Carnelossi
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Na Liang and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Istela Nunes. Beat Piera Rodriguez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Souza by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Souza -300