Natalia Silva vs Cong Wang
- Natalia Silva
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo, Tereza Bleda. Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Rose Namajunas, Alexa Grasso, Jessica Andrade, Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Cong Wang
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat Tracy Cortez, Eduarda Moura, Wu Yanan and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Wang’s striking is a 75 for sure after she out struck Cortez 126 to 66. Silva’s striking is probably a 75, she did out strike Namajunas 50 to 226 after all. This fight could come down to who has the better cardio, but ultimately, it’s still hard for me to shake Wang’s upset loss to Gabriella Fernandes where she got knocked down. I have more confidence in Silva’s durability.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -135
Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Aguirre. Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri, Cameron Saaiman, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Henry Cejudo and Reyes Cortez Jr.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 135 lbs. 14-5-1 overall.
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Cody Garbrandt, Alex Perez, and Tim Elliott. Beat Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja. Split decision over Montel Jackson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Talbott by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Talbott -135
King Green vs Esteban Ribovics
- King Green
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 14-12-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jeremy Stephens and Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Terrance McKinney, Daniel Zellhuber, Grant Dawson and Al Iaquinta. Beat Jim Miller, Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch. Split decision over Lance Gibson Jr.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Esteban Ribovics
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edson Barboza, Terrance McKinney, an 11-3 striker, a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Beat Kamuela Kirk. Split decision over Daniel Zellhuber.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Green -300
Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams
- Roberto Soldic
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 21-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 14-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-4 grappler, a 9-2 striker, and a 7-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Khaos Williams
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randy Brown.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nikolay Veretennikov, Carlston Harris, Miguel Baeza, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over Rolando Bedoya.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Williams had been out for a year, returned against Verettenikov, and grazed the 70 striking grade for me but I could be wrong because the fight only lasted 3 minutes. Soldic is supposed to be really good but he’s only fought once in the last 3 years. And that one fight lasted less than 2 minutes. And his last fight before that, he got knocked out by a 14-7 striker. Very real chance his tools could just be 60’s.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Williams -250
Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov
- Ateba Gautier
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ozzy Diaz, Robert Valentin and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Andrey Pulyaev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Curtis, Josh Fremd, Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler. Beat Marco Tulio. Split decision over Cesar Almeida.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Diaz was having some success in the clinch with Gautier in the 1st round. Kopylov could have even better success there. Especially with the Utah elevation.
Chris’ Pick: Gautier by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gautier -135
Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez
- Alden Coria
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alessandro Costa and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Stewart Nicoll and Luis Gurule.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Imaol Rodriguez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Borjas, a well rounded 10-2 fighter, and a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -250
Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev
- Damian Pinas
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cesar Almeida, Wesley Schultz, an 8-1 striker, an 11-3 grappler, and a 6-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andrey Pulyaev
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nick Klein. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite the knockout, I can’t grade Pinas’ striking a 70 as Almeida out struck him 37 to 24. I know Pulyaev has 70 striking as he out struck Ateba Gautier 57 to 30.
Chris’ Pick: Pulyaev by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pulyaev -225
Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero
- Marcus McGhee
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Journey Newson. Knocked out Gaston Bolanos, JP Buys, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat John Yannis and Jonathan Martinez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Anthony Romero
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The last time Romero had significant cage time was a little over a year ago. He clearly had 55 tools. Possible he shows up with 60 tools. But he took the fight on 3 days notice. Fight is in elevation.
Chris’ Pick: McGee by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McGee -400
Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand
- Anthony Wint
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Terrance Chatman. Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Lucas Armand
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-1 striker and a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I watched Armand take on a wrestler just last year and I’m 100% this opponent’s wrestling wasn’t any better than a 60. And Armand really struggled to get up when taken down.
Chris’ Pick: Wint by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Wint -400
Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-6 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mingyang Zhang, Paul Craig, Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba. Beat Anthony Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Mick Parkin
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lukasz Brzeski. Submitted Eduardo Neves. Beat Mohammed Usman, Caio Machado, and Jamal Pogues.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Walker -225
Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead
- Jacobe Smith
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Niko Price. Knocked out Josiah Harrell, Preston Parsons, and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Bruce Whitehead
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Smith’s striking is creeping towards a 70 grade. It’s close.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smith -200
Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 5-6 at 170 lbs. 21-15 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Submitted Bryan Barberena. Beat Renato Moicano, Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damon Jackson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Chase Hooper, Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Kurt Holobaugh, Jim Miller, Oliver Aubin-Mercier, and Francisco Trinaldo. Split decision over Austin Hubbard.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -135
Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-8-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ismail Naurdiev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Loder. Beat Siyar Bahadurzada and Michel Prazeres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Naurdiev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Naurdiev -250
Court McGee vs Eric Nolan
- Court McGee
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 10-13
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Key Wins: Beat Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Eric Nolan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 9-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
In retirement fights, sometimes the fighter maintains their skills like a Cub Swanson but then sometimes the fighter shows up to the retirement fight with heavily regressed skills. So there’s some downside risk in McGee’s tools.
Chris’ Pick: Nolan by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nolan -135