MW: #1 Anderson Silva (16-0) vs. MW: #3 Chris Weidman (5-0) – for Middleweight Title
Pick: Chris Weidman – Like many people, I’ve gone back and forth with this pick all week. And normally, there wouldn’t be any logical opinion available to pick against Anderson Silva. But his opponent Chris Weidman makes the exception. To me, I can shake the two Chael Sonnen fights from my mind. I can’t. Chael Sonnen is not the fighter Chris Weidman is. Weidman is more athletic, has better submission game and most importantly is much younger and in his prime. Is Anderson the greatest fighter of all time? Yes. Has he gone on an unbelievable streak? Yes. But that streak won’t help him win this one, individual fight. Chris Weidman’s resume in the UFC is very similar to other UFC champions in other weight classes. He’s undefeated. Has finished at least half of his fights in dominating fashion. And the couple fights he won by decision, was on 2 weeks notice beating 2 top 10 opponents in Alessio Sakara and Demian Maia. Anderson’s kicking is a big part of his game and he won’t be able to use them in this fight, because if he does, Weidman will take him down. Every time Anderson was taken down by Sonnen in their two fights, besides the triangle submission Anderson locked in, in the 5th round of the 1st fight, Anderson wasn’t able to do anything off of his back. Also, all the UFC fighters going on record and picking Chris Weidman, they’re not doing that because the UFC is telling them to hype the fight. The fighters wouldn’t be doing that unless they really believe it. Especially Georges St. Pierre. Make no mistake, these fighters are in business for themselves and they don’t want to look stupid. The biggest way however, I could see Weidman losing this fight, is if he becomes intimidated by Anderson like so many have before. This past week, I rewatched the Silva vs. Okami fight. I thought Okami would have a chance in the fight Okaming Silva by pushing him against the cage, single leg takedown and then lay on him, but Okami tried only once in the fight to do that and never got the takedown. The cast majority of the fight, Anderson kept him at a distance and Okami was too afraid to close the distance like he normally does. Weidman can be confident all he wants now, but once he steps into the spotlight, he could become intimidated and not close the distance. But, for most of the fighters that are currently UFC champions, they were underdogs going into their title fight. They could have been intimidated by the moment, but they weren’t. I ultimately don’t think Weidman will be intimidated, being that he’s too young to know any better, and that is what will make the difference in him doing the unthinkable.
FW: #4 Frankie Edgar (0-1) vs. FW: #27 Charles Oliveira (2-1)
Pick: Frankie Edgar – Coming into the UFC, Oliveira looked like a blue chip mma prospect. But he’s had 3 opportunities in taking steps up in competition. Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone, and Cub Swanson. And Oliveira got finished by all 3. Well, Frankie Edgar is better than all 3 of them. This fight won’t be close. The UFC set this fight up to make Frankie Edgar look good on a very big stage.
MW: #22 Tim Kennedy (6-2) vs. MW: #25 Roger Gracie (2-0)
Pick: Roger Gracie – My slight upset pick of the night. Well, besides me picking Weidman lol. Tim Kennedy is a decent fighter, but he has the look of a gatekeeper to me. Finishes fighters that don’t belong in the big leagues. Wins by decision against tougher fighters, loses anytime he faces elite competition. Gracie has looked like a very good prospect to me and he’s very big at middleweight. Lots of people are picking Kennedy because they think he’ll keep the fight on the feet. I disagree. Gracie will get it to the ground and win.
MW: #9 Mark Munoz (7-2) vs. MW: #10 Tim Boetsch (4-1)
Pick: Mark Munoz – This is another fight I’ve been going back and forth on all week. Munoz has had a long lay off and battled depression. Boetsch was on the roll of his career and then had a very lackluster loss to Costa Philippou. To me, the difference is that Boetsch’s 2 biggest wins are a comeback win over Yushin Okami and a split decision win over Hector Lombard. Now, Okami was dominating Boetsch, before Tim made his big knockout comeback. And Lombard has now been exposed as over rated and cutting to welterweight. His other 2 wins over lesser guys, were decision wins. To be an elite fighter, you need to show you can finish other fighters that aren’t on your level. Mark Munoz is a guy that does that and I think will do that to Boetsch.
FW: #5 Cub Swanson (9-4) vs. FW: #9 Dennis Siver (2-0)
Pick: Cub Swanson – Dennis Siver is a very live dog here. People forget how badly he beat up Nam Phan last December. But I think Cub is on another level and is an elite fighter who is finally fulfilling his potential. I think if Cub can get the fight to the ground, he’ll submit Siver.
MW: #15 Chris Leben (12-8) vs. MW: #28 Andrew Craig (2-1)
Pick: Andrew Craig – Almost anytime you have a fighter start to go on a downward spiral in their career, very rarely do they make it back. And Leben’s resurgence looks less impressive these days because Aaron Simpson and Yoshihiro Akiyama have been exposed for not being as good as we thought they were at the time. Craig does have a 2-1 record in the UFC so far, but his loss to Ronny Markes is nothing to be ashamed about as I think Markes is a future title contender at middleweight. Craig is going to win impressively here.
LW: #45 Norman Parke (1-0) vs. LW: #47 Kazuki Tokudome (1-0)
Pick: Norman Parke – The UFC is giving their UK vs. Australia Ultimate Fighter winner a real lay up here. Colin Fletcher was a tougher opponent than Tokudome.
HW: #17 Gabriel Gonzaga (9-6) vs. HW: #22 Dave Herman (1-3)
Pick: Dave Herman – Upset Alert!!! If I was a betting man, this is the fight I would lay some money on. Gonzaga is a big favorite. But I think Herman will win because he does have potential. Sure, his record is 1-3, but his 3 losses were to Big Nog, Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve. Gonzaga has a lot of mileage. He’s 34. And he’s already shown that he will quit when he retired from MMA a couple years ago before deciding to return. I think we’re going to see the best Dave Herman in this fight and a jaded Gabriel Gonzaga. So I got Herman by decision.
LW: #18 Edson Barboza (5-1) vs. LW: #71 Rafaello Oliveira (2-4)
Pick: Edson Barboza – Oliveira doesn’t deserve this fight but he’s getting because John Makdessi got hurt. Barboza will end Oliveira’s UFC career here. Easily. First Round.
WW: #25 Seth Baczynski (4-1) vs. WW: Brian Melancon (0-0, #69 WW Prospect)
Pick: Seth Baczynski – Melancon doesn’t belong in the UFC. He’s only getting this fight because he was on the Strikeforce roster and every Strikeforce fighter is getting at least one shot in the UFC. Baczynski is ready for a fight with a top 15, top 10 welterweight in the UFC. He’s not going to waste much time with Melancon.
WW: #19 Mike Pierce (8-3) vs. WW: #67 David Mitchell (1-2)
Pick: Mike Pierce – If you watch the UFC, you probably have heard of Johny Hendricks by now. But what you probably don’t know is how close Mike Pierce was to becoming Johny Hendricks. Back in 2011, Pierce fought Hendricks and lost a close split decision. Then Pierce lost a close split decision to Josh Koscheck, which Hendricks won by split decision. Other than those close 2 loses, Pierce hasn’t lost since 2010 and is quietly one of the best welterweights in the world not too many people have heard of. Some people are saying Pierce is being buried on the prelims because he’s boring. But I think the UFC is doing Pierce a favor here giving him such a bad opponent. It’s the perfect opportunity for Pierce to finish Mitchell in spectacular fashion so they can air it on TV later tonight and then be able to promote Pierce on TV next time out. But yeah, this fight, Pierce wins by whatever he wants.