Stefan Struve: I don’t really buy into “MMA math” but I found the following links interesting: Alexander Volkov won a split decision against Tim Johnson.Tim Johnson won a split decision over Daniel Omielanczuk. So it could be possible that Volkov, Johnson, and Omielanczuk for close to the same level. What did Struve do in his last fight? Submitted Omielanczuk in the 2nd round. So there’s that. I also don’t buy into Volkov as a rising contender. Mainly because his 2 losses to Tony Johnson and Cheick Kongo in 2015 are still fresh in my mind. What’s crazy is that Struve is 29 years old, and already has 18 fights in the UFC with a 12-6 record. Heavyweights usually reach their prime a little later in life than other weight classes and it’s possible Struve is now hitting his stride. Not sure Struve has a title fight is his future. Too recently it’s been shown he can be outstruck like he did against Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem. And he can be taken down and outwrestled like he did losing to Jared Rosholt. So he has flaws in his game he still needs to clean up 18 fights into his UFC career. But despite the flaws, Struve has been consistent in beating lower tier heavyweights and I feel that Volkov is in that class. So I like Struve by submission.
Rob Wilkinson: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Leading up to Wilkinson’s 11th pro fight, he was still a mystery, despite the 10-0 record. Because even though he looked good in finishing 9 out of 10 fights, the best guy he beat had only a 2-0 record. So when he submitted Alexander Poppeck in the first round, that’s when he announced he could be a top prospect. Because you never really know how good a fighter is until they’re matched up with better quality opponents. Siyar Bahadurzada is a vet, but hasn’t been very active. He’s only fought 1 time in the last 4 years. 2-2 record in the UFC. 33 years old. And hindsight has shown his 2 wins over Paulo Thiago and Brandon Thatch we’re as big of a deal as we all thought at the time. Wilkinson is coming in with a shorter, 1 month camp, but I think he’ll be fine in besting Bahadurzada. After the Poppeck, my reservations on Wilkinson are gone. He’s 25 years old. And fighters that have been as inactive as Siyar has, typically have rust. I like Wilkinson by decision.
Marion Reneau: Reneau is now 40 years old. But athletically, she doesn’t seem to be slowing down yet, probably because her MMA career started later than most. Last 3 fights, she fought former title contender Bethe Correira to a draw, knocked out Milana Dudieva and lost a close split decision to Ashlee Evans-Smith. Not too bad. Meanwhile, Talita Bernardo is taking this fight on very short notice and most of her wins have been against opponents with a losing record, or pro debuting fighters. The one quality prospect Bernardo fought was against undefeated Juliana Velasquez and Bernardo lost via decision. Same result that I think will happen in this fight. Reneau via decision.
Bryan Barberena: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Really good fight. Really close fight. I’d say both fighters are at similar stages of their development. Leon Edwards is a few years younger at 25 years old. Both have really impressive wins. Edwards beating Vicente Luque and Albert Tumenov. Barberena has wins over Warlley Alves and Sage Northcutt. For me, this fight really comes down to the stylistic matchup. Barberena lost to Colby Covington because Covington kept the fight on the feet and outstruck Barberena. Edwards lost to Kamaru Usman due to Usman taking Edwards down. Edwards will want to keep the fight on the feet, but I think Barberena will be able to take him down like Usman did. And that will be the difference in a close fight.
Darren Till: Closer than the experts think. Bojan Velickovic definitely has some underdog appeal. He’s 2-1 in the UFC. He fought top prospect Michael Graves to a draw. He lost a split decision to Sultan Aliev, who could be good. And he’s coming off a knockout over Nicholas Musoke. And yes, Till is 2-0 in the UFC so far, but he couldn’t beat Nicolas Dalby as they fought to a draw. Plus even though Till is a top prospect, he’s still really young at 24 years old and is still developing. Like I said, close fight. But I’m going to pick Till, because he is undefeated after all. He’s well rounded and knows how to win close fights. Till will win by decision.
Mairbek Taisumov: It’s been a long time since there’s been such an easy fight to pick. Besides Cyborg vs Tonya Evinger. So easy to pick this fight. Felipe Silva might be OK. Best fighter he took on before making it to the UFC was 3-1. First round knockout over Shane Campbell is nice. There might be some promise in Silva but he got to the UFC late, being that he’s 33 years old. And he’s running into a buzzsaw in Taisumov. Taisumov is 5-1 in the UFC with 4 knockouts in a row. 28 years old, in his prime. Pretty good chance he becomes a title contender in the next couple years.
Michel Prazeres: Prazeres has the profile on a classic gatekeeper, despite the 6-2 UFC record. The reason why I don’t think he’s a title contender is because he’s already 34 years old and only 1 of his 6 wins was a finish. Which is why the UFC isn’t pushing him. Unfortunately, this fight will not change much for Prazeres and is very predictable. His opponent Mads Burnell, I didn’t really buy into him being a good prospects until his last fight when he submitted Fernando Bagordache in the 1st round. And Bagordache is pretty good. Burnell is 23 years old. But is resume lacks wins over quality opponents. Bagordache was the only decent prospect Burnell has beat. Plus Burnell failed to finish 3 fights against low quality competition. And to cap off why I think Burnell has no chance to win this fight, he’s a featherweight. But is taking this fight on short notice at lightweight. Yeah, no dice. Only real question is this fight is if Prazeres can finish Burnell. It’s possible, but more likely Prazeres by decision as usual.
Rustam Khabilov: Not a big fan of what Desmond Green’s done in the past couple years. Lost 2 out of 3 fights. Won 4 fights in a row to get to the UFC, but only 1 of the 4 wins was a finish. Plus 1 of them was a split decision win. And yet another split decision win in Green’s debut UFC fight against Josh Emmett. I’m not sure if Khabilov is a title contender at 155 lbs. He might be. The lack of finishes concern me in that regard. But with Khabilov having a 7-2 record in the UFC, I feel like he beats guys that have the fighting profile of Desmond Green all day long. Real question is whether Khabilov can finish the fight. I’m leaning towards saying no. Khabilov by decision, like usual.
Aleksandar Rakic: Pretty standard fight to pick. In Francimar Barroso, we have a 37 year old gatekeeper with a 4-2 record in the UFC. None of the 4 wins was that impressive. Rakic is 25 years old making his UFC debut. And although he’s only had 1 fight against a quality opponent, he still has finished 8 of the 9 fights hes been in. Normally, it’s really tough for a debuting fighter to beat a gatekeeper, but Barroso is not that good. I expect Rakic to win and possibly even get a knockout.
Zabit Magomedsharipov: At first glance, this fight looks like a squash. Mike Santiago steps in for Nick Hein on short notice, with a 19-9 record outside the UFC. But if you look closer, you find an inspiring story behind Santiago’s arrival. Back at the beginning of 2014, Santiago lost to Frankie Perez and his record became 10-9. That’s not the record of a prospect. That’s the record of someone taking fights on the side to make some extra money. But Santiago didn’t buy into that profile. Instead he continued to try and improve. And incredibly reeled off 9 wins in a row in the past 3 years including the highlight, a knockout over top prospect Mark Cherico on Dana White’s new Contenders Series. And gets a UFC contract. Like, this is literally movie script material. And Santiago isn’t old! He’s not a vet who’s barely hanging on, he’s 28 years old and coming into his prime. But unfortunately for Santiago, he’s fighting a prospect who I feel will become a contender and fight for the 145 lb title in the next 2-3 years. And I don’t say that of many debuting fighters. 26 year old Magomedsharipov has gone on a really impressive run the past couple years finishing Mukhamed Kokov, Abdul-Rakhman Temirov, and Sheikh-Magomed Arapkhanov. 3 prospects that I think are going to eventually sign with the UFC. To me, this is one of the more compelling fights of 2017 and it’s a shame that it’s buried on the prelims. And a lot the books have Magomedsharipov as a big favorite, but this is closer than the experts think. Santiago is a live dog here. But I got to pick Magomedsharipov. I can’t pick against his track record and think he pulls out a decision win.
Abdul Kerim-Edilov: In the pro wrestling world, this fight would be known as a squash match. Meaning that this fight was booked to as a showcase for Kerim-Edilov to illustrate why he’s one of the best light heavyweight prospects in the world. He’s 25 years old. And he has 10 wins in a row where he’s finished all fights in 3 minutes or less. Plus Kerim-Edilov has many wins over quality competition including a knockout over rising UFC contender Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Kerim-Edilov’s opponent Bojan Mihajlovic is 0-2 in the UFC and is 37 years old. I’d be surprised if this fight last longer than 3 minutes.
Andrew Holbrook: On the surface, Holbrook’s resume in the UFC looks forgettable. But mixed into his 2-2 UFC record, with 2 of the wins coming via split decision, is a win over elite prospect Jake Matthews, who had a 4-2 record before losing to Holbrook. I know a split decision over a 23 year old fighter isn’t much for Holbrook to hang his hat on, but his opponent Thibault Gouti has had even less. Normally, a fighter with a 0-3 record in the UFC gets released, but Gouti is French and the UFC would love to have more French fighters on the roster. But unfortunately for Gouti, he hasn’t been able to hang, getting finished in all 3 losses, 2 of the 3 being in the first round. I expect Holbrook to make this a boring, grinding fight and pick up the decision.