-Kevin Lee: UPSET SPECIAL 1: This is what I call a filet mignon type of main event. As in a high quality, sizzling upper echelon fight. And not every UFC card, much less pay per views, have them. Lee’s ascension has really reminded me of the rise of Robert Whittaker. With young fighters, sometimes at a point in their career, they turn a corner and evolve into a completely different and better fighter. Whittaker recently completed that transformation and I think Lee is the next to do it. Lee signed with the UFC when he was 21 years old. Started his UFC career with a pretty average 4-2 record. 3 of his 4 wins were via decision. Win #5 came from a decision over Efrain Escudero. Again, nothing special. At this point, Lee was showing gatekeeper potential. Not being able to finish average fighters like Jesse Ronson, Jon Tuck, Escudero. Not showing contender potential at all. But out of nowhere, he appeared to turn a corner against hot prospect Jake Matthews by knocking him out in the first round. Another finish against an unknown, but very talented Magomed Mustafaev. But it’s Lee’s performance in his last 2 fights that make me thing he’s elevated his game past Tony Ferguson. Francisco Trinaldo is not a name with star power, but going into his fight with Lee, he quietly accrued an 11-3 record. And Lee had no problem laying waste to Trinaldo, submitting the wrestler in the 2nd round. Most impressive was the Michael Chiesa win, as I picked Chiesa to win. But Lee proved me wrong and finished Chiesa in the 1st. Now don’t get me wrong, Ferguson has earned this headlining spot and his ranking. He’s 12-1 in the UFC and has won 9 straight. But I haven’t seen the same ascension in Ferguson’s skills that I’ve seen in Lee’s. And if you look at Ferguson’s last 5 wins, they’re not as impressive. A submission win over Gleison Tibau who was at the end of his career. A decision win against Josh Thomson who was coming off 2 losses in a row and also near the end of his career. Submission win against Edson Barboza which is solid. Submission win over Lando Vannata which is not that great considering Vannata took the fight on short notice and Ferguson struggled with him the first round. And then a decision win against a depleted Rafael dos Anjos who really struggled to make the 155 lb weight for the fight. Again, good resume, but doesn’t show Ferguson’s skills are where Lee’s are. I think Lee is going to catch Ferguson with a strike and will submit him in the 2nd round.
-Demetrious Johnson: I’m happy that Johnson’s fight against Ray Borg is not the main event. It doesn’t deserve to be. Mainly because Johnson is cherry picking the easiest fights possible. He had an opportunity in July for the biggest fight and pay day of his career to fight former 135 lb champion TJ Dillashaw, but he refused and instead of wanted to fight Borg. Now, not only is Borg the easier fight, it’s also the shrewd move by Johnson. Because Borg is 23 years old. Still developing. Very talented, but he’s not ready for a title shot. Johnson wants to take Borg out now before he’s ready, which makes it harder for Borg to get a title fight when he’s really ready, and even if he gets it, Borg will also have to overcome the mental hurdles of doubt of having already lost to Johnson before. It is a smart move by Johnson. But it also means that this is a very predictable fight and one of the main reasons that Johnson isn’t that popular or much of a draw. Johnson will finish this fight though however he wants.
-Derrick Lewis: UPSET SPECIAL 2: This fight is a coin flip and could really go either way. If it was happening a couple years ago, I’d say Fabricio Werdum wins this fight easy. But Werdum is 40 years old now. And based on how quickly Stipe Miocic knocked him out, I think Werdum’s chin is now suspect to young power. But it’s not a easy, cut and dry win for Lewis either. There’s some question marks. Such as his inability to knock out and finish experienced, durable fighters such as Mark Hunt and Roy Nelson. And I could also see Werdum clinching with Lewis, getting a take down and submitting him. But I’m inclined to think that doesn’t actually happen based off of Nelson not being able to do it to Lewis when they fought. So I think the fight stays on the feet and I think we see a 1st round knock out for Lewis, which probably gets Lewis 1 win away from a title shot, after Francis Ngannou gets his.
-Kalindra Faria: Faria has been well known on the prospect scene for awhile, although her stock took a hit a couple years ago when she lost to Jessica Aguilar. Faria bounced back pretty well in her next fight losing a close split decision to UFC title contender Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Since, she’s won 3 in a row. 2 against pro debuting fighters and a decision win over journey woman Carina Damm. So she’s not on the hottest streak, but Faria will have no problem dispatching her opponent Mara Romero Borella. Borella has won 5 fights in a row, but the only reason the UFC signed her is because they needed an opponent for Faria on a week’s notice. Borella has a 11-4 record. Lost to 1-0 fighter Stephanie Egger, lost to journey woman Jin Tang. And in the last 5 wins, failed to finish very poor competition. Borella has shown a track record to lose to fighters way beneath Faria’s skill level which makes me think she’s in over her head here. This looks like a 1st round knockout for Faria.
-Beneil Dariush: Not sure why the UFC booked this fight, because it’s not much of a fight. Sure, Evan Dunham is coming in with a 4 fight win streak. But the 4 wins are all decision wins. And they’re against over the hill opponents such as Rodrigo Damm, Ross Pearson, and Joe Lauzon. Plus a win over 145 lb fighter Rick Glenn who took the fight on short notice and fought at 155 lbs. And Dunham is 35 years old, past his prime. Dariush has a 8-3 UFC record, has big wins over Michael Johnson, James Vick and Rashid Magomedov. Dunham has no chance. Dariush will knock him out in the 1st.
-Tom Dusquesnoy: The first set of odds I see for this fight is a pick em lol. Very funny and very easy fight to pick. Might not look like it on the surface with Duquesnoy having a 15-1 record and Cody Stamann having a 14-1 record. But the quality of wins Duquesnoy has is way better than Stamann’s. Duquesnoy is widely viewed as one of the very top prospects in all MMA largely because before signing with the UFC, he was taking fight after fight against elite prospects and finishing most of them. Meanwhile for Stamman, his first win in the UFC against Terrion Ware was probably the biggest in his career. Bottom line, Duquesnoy will have no problem winning this fight from wherever he wants. He’s well rounded and good at everything and he has a long track record of beating fighters with Stamann’s resume and skill set. I’ll pick a Duquesnoy knockout in the 2nd round.
-Nik Lentz: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Lentz is a +295 underdog?? Dude never gets any respect haha. Most aren’t that familiar with Lentz due to him fighting regularly on the prelims, but Lentz has been sneaky in putting up a 11-5 record in the UFC, so he’s a very good gate keeper. Now, it’s possible Will Brooks is decent and could last in the UFC, but he’s been booked against tough competition. And Lentz isn’t any easier. I have a feeling with Brooks being 1-2 in the UFC and back against the wall, he’d want to go back to his bread and butter, wrestling, but unfortunately for Brooks, he won’t be able to do that with an equally skilled wrestler in Lentz. This fight is going to stay on the feet and I see Lentz winning by a clear decision.
-Lando Vannata: Really interesting fight between a really good prospect who’s gotten off to a 1-2 start in the UFC, losing to top competition, versus a really good lightweight who happens to be on a 3 fight losing streak, losing to 2 top contenders and a split decision loss to another top prospect. And it’s kinda a shame the two are matched together because it’s likely the loser gets released from the UFC. It’d make Vannata 1-3 or would give Bobby Green his 4th loss in a row. Coin flip of a fight. Green belongs in the UFC and is still capable of being a gatekeeper. His win over Josh Thomson, his last win, was the highlight of Green’s career so far. But I have to pick the younger, up and comer Vannata. He’s 25 years old. Made his UFC debut on short notice against contender Tony Ferguson and held his own the first round. Lost a close fight via decision to fellow top prospect David Teymur. I got to give Vannata the edge because it’s very likely at his age, he’s going to be way better than how we saw him in his last fight. I think the fight will play out on the feet and Vannata will be faster and more creative and will make the difference in winning the decision.
-Poliana Botelho: Pearl Gonzalez has 8 amateur fights. 8 pro fights. And out of the 16 total fights she’s had, Gonzalez has only fought 2 quality opponents. Cortney Casey-Sanchez and Cynthia Calvillo. Gonzalez also lost to 1-1 Sasha Mrvic and 2-1 Munah Holland. Classic case of a fighter padding their record and resume off of pro debuting fighters and below average competition. Tomato cans. Yes, Gonzalez did beat Cortney-Casey, who’s now in the UFC too, so Gonzalez is no complete dud. But based on Gonzalez not putting up too much of a fight against young up-and-comer Carvillo, I think she’ll have the same issues with another young up-and-comer in Botelho. Botelho only has 6 fights in her career, but she knocked out 3 very good opponents in her last 3 fights. 28 years old. Coming into her prime. Botelho is a different type of fighter than Carvillo, but I think she’s going to be faster and has more power than Gonzalez. I expect a 2nd round knockout from Botelho.
-Walt Harris: Harris is a really interesting fighter in the sense that even though he’s 34 years old, he’s clearly getting better every fight with only 15 pro bouts on his resume. I’d even say that Harris could be a dark horse title contender with his explosiveness and athleticism. His main weakness he’s been getting better has been against opponents that clinch with him, push him against the fence, take him down, etc. Cyril Asker is one of those types of fighters that can do that but in Harris’ last fight with Asker, Harris was able to stay away from the clinch and knocked Asker out in less than 2 minutes. Harris’ opponent Mark Godbeer is an average prospect. Got into the UFC a little late, being he’s 33 years old. 1-1 record in the UFC so far. But based largely on how Harris has looked in his last couple fights, I don’t see Godbeer bringing anything to the table that is going to slow Harris’ momentum up the heavyweight ladder. I like Harris by 2nd round knockout.
-Magomed Bibulatov: I love these top prospect vs contender type fights. Well, John Moraga, kind of still being a contender, now that he’s been reduced to a 6-5 UFC record, but all 5 losses have been to the best of the best of the 125 lb division. I’m picking Bibulatov because he’s one of the best flyweight prospects in the world, most known for first round knockout over fellow elite prospect Giovanni Santos Jr. And Bibulatov also has big wins over other top prospects in Said Nurmagomedov and Taylor Lapilus. I think Bibulatov is the stronger wrestler and will grind this fight out like he’s done so many times. Bibulatov by decision.
-Brad Tavares: This a battle of gatekeepers! Easy fight to pick. Tavares is coming off a win over Elias Theodorou, who is basically a younger version of Thales Leites and Tavares had no problem. Kept the fight on the feet. Kept the distance. Picked Theodorou apart. I see the same fight playing out here. Plus in Leites’ last loss to Krzysztof Jotko beat Leites in the same exact way I see Tavares beating him. Decision win for Tavares.
-Marco Beltran: Beltran easy here. Beltran’s 8-5 record is deceiving based on how early in his career he fought above his weight class. And to prove my point, I’ll point out the big win Beltran scored a few years ago against rising 135 lb contender Marlon Vera. Meanwhile with Matt Schnell, I’ve never been impressed with him. He hasn’t beat a single decent prospect, unless you count his win over Klayton Mai. I picked Schnell to win his last fight against Hector Sandoval, but boy was I wrong haha. Sandoval blew Schnell out of the water. I don’t see Schnell winning this fight anywhere and think that Beltran submits him in the 1st round.