-Brian Ortega: What’s Cub Swanson done in his last 6 fights? Lost to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. No shame in that. Other 4 fights? All decision wins. 3 of the 4 decision wins are against fighters no longer in the UFC. The only quality win Swanson has is against rising contender Doo Ho Choi. But no finish. Just a decision win. Despite calls for Swanson to get a title shot, the reality is that he hasn’t beaten top contenders. And unlike Choi, I think Brian Ortega is far enough in his development to not only beat Swanson, but submit him. Might as well call it in the 3rd round since that’s how Ortega has won his last 4 fights haha. Four 3rd round finishes in a row. And I think it’s even possible that the last win Ortega picked up, against Renato Carneiro, I think Carneiro at this point could beat Swanson too. Either way, Ortega is going to win this fight.
-Jason Knight: This is a spotlight fight for Knight. The UFC clearly booked this to make Knight look good and build him up as a contender. Despite his last fight where he was knocked out by Ricardo Lamas. That’s the only explanation I can find for Gabriel Benitez being booked in the co main event with a 3-2 UFC record and coming off a loss to Enrique Barzola. This is Knight all day by whatever he wants, but I’ll guess knockout. First round.
-Marlon Moraes: I really thought that John Dodson was going to beat Moraes, but man, Moraes really opened my eyes in that fight. Aljamain Sterling is a really good prospect. 6-2 in the UFC. The 2 losses were via split decision to contenders Rafael Assuncao and Bryan Caraway. He’s really good. But Sterling has yet to beat an elite fighter. And yeah, I know that Sterling did beat former champion Renan Barao in his last fight but Barao isn’t the same dude as he was when he was champion. Barao went into that fight with Sterling losing the last 3 out of 5 fights. Moraes did lose a split decision to Assuncao in his UFC debut, but the fact that he was able to beat a top 3 guy in the division in Dodson makes me think that Moraes has the edge to take a close decision over Sterling.
-Darrell Horcher: Scott Holtzman got into the UFC way too late in his career. He’s 34 years old. Has been 3-2 in the UFC so far. He’s at his ceiling development wise. Horcher is more in his prime. 30 years old. But most importantly, he has a track record of being able to beat tough opponents and Holtzman is pretty similar to other fighters Horcher has no problem beating. So I’m picking Horcher by decision.
-Eryk Anders: Really, really good fight here between 2 elite 185 lb. prospects. Markus Echeimberg has already beaten 2 UFC vets in Paulo Thiago and Ildemar Alcantara. Plus a super impressive first round submission win over undefeated Ian Heinisch. But I’m picking Anders due how dominant he looked against a quality gate keeper in Rafael Natal, who had a 9-6 UFC record when he fought Anders. Echeimberg is really well rounded, but I think the explosiveness of Anders will be too much and I see Anders picking up a 2nd round knockout.
-Benito Lopez: On paper, Lopez and Albert Morales look to be pretty close to equal. Both have similar resumes outside the UFC. But the big difference for me is Morales’ lack of success in the UFC so far. Morales has 1 win, 2 losses and 1 draw. And he’s going against Lopez who’s undefeated with much more confidence. And he should have the UFC jitters out of the way having beaten a really tough opponent on Dana White’s contender series. Look for Lopez to pick up a decision win.
-Alexis Davis: Not sure why the UFC is booking this fight again. Davis beat Liz Carmouche via decision back in 2013. I see the same type of fight playing out here. Plus Carmouche has been really unactive. She’s only been fighting once a year for the past 4 years. And she’s hasn’t shown much growth or development. Davis by another decision.
-Luke Sanders: I’ve never been on the Andre Soukhamthath hype train. He’s 29 years old. UFC signed him when he had a 11-3 record, which is OK, but not great. But he was fighting poor competition. And is now 0-2 in the UFC. Sanders on the other hand is a pretty good prospect, despite being older at 31 years old. He’s fought and beat much better opponents, including defeating current UFC fighter Terrion Ware in RFA. I don’t think Sanders is going to become elite, but he’ll be good enough to pick up the decision win here.
-Alex Perez: When you look at Perez’s resume, having a pro record of 18-4, it’s impressive. But unfortunately, the vast majority of his wins have been against tomato cans. Perez does have a split decision win over Ray Elizalde and a submission win over Kevin Gray, which is ok. But when it comes to picking this fight, Perez’s opponent has an even worse resume. Carls de Tomas. UFC signed him way too soon. 21 years old. All his wins have been over poor competition. And 3 of those 6 wins, de Tomas could’ve even finish the fight, won by decision. Not the resume of a fighter that goes on to have a successful UFC career. Not excited about either fighter, but I’ll take Perez by decision.
-Merab Dvalishvili: Really hard fight to pick because both fighters are big question marks. Dvalishvili at the start of his career looked like he was a wrestler that could win fights by taking opponents down, but didn’t know what to do once he got them there. Couldn’t finish tomato cans. But he now has 2 finishes in a row, including a signature knockout win that took 15 seconds over Raufean Stots, who was undefeated at 8-0 before losing to Dvalishvali. Opponent Frankie Saenz has a 3-3 UFC record, but is 37 years old and has lost 3 in a row. I’m doubting Saenz’s ability to bounce back at such an old age and I think the younger, probably stronger fighter in Dvalishvali will figure out a way to grind to a decision win.
-Iuri Alcantara: Really tough fight to pick. Very close. Alcantara has been a solid gatekeeper for a long time. 10-5 record in the UFC. But he’s now 37 years old. His opponent Alejandro Perez looks to have the same upside, that of a gatekeeper. 28 years old. 4-1 record in the UFC, plus 1 draw. But the opponents Perez has beat in the UFC is nothing to write home about. Perez’s biggest win was against Jose Quinonez (who Perez lost to outside the UFC), Quinonez has a 3-1 record in the UFC. The rest of Perez’s wins haven’t been that impressive. Alcantara is a finisher. He beats fighters all the time that don’t belong in the UFC. And Alcantara’s submisison win over Luke Sanders back in March is still fresh in my mind. And I question how Perez could have got submitted by such a lackluster fighter as Patrick Williams is. So for all those reasons, I think Alcantara will pick up a 2nd round submission.
-Davi Ramos: Ramos is a really good prospect best known for submitting current UFC Juan Puig in 36 seconds in his pro debut, back when Puig had a 5-1 pro record. Ramos also knocked out current UFC fighter Jose Quinonez in his 3rd pro fight. Ramos lost his UFC deubt to Sergio Moraes, but Ramos took the fight on short notice at 170 lbs (Ramos usually fights at 155 lbs.) So Ramos’ fight against Chris Greutzemacher will be his lightweight UFC debut. Greutzemacher is 1-1 in the UFC. Lost to Chas Skelly. No shame in that. Beat Abner Lloveras by decision. Ho hum. I feel like Ramos has beaten more impressive fighters already and Greutzemacher won’t present anything Ramos hasn’t seen already. Plus even though Ramos is 31 years old, because he’s only had 8 pro fights, he’s probably going to be improved in this fight. So I like Ramos to get a 2nd round submission in this fight.
-Trevin Giles: Once upon a time, Antonio Brago Neto was one of the hottest prospects in MMA. Neto put himself on the map by submitting 27-3 Maiquel Falcao. Then after he tapped out UFC vet Brock Larson in the first round, the UFC signed him. But this was back in 2012. So far, Neto has gone 1-1 in the UFC. An impressive submission win over Anthony Smith. And then a lackluster loss to Clint Hester. And the Hester loss was 3 and a half years ago. Yeah, long lay off! At 30 years of age, Neto has a chance to get his career back on track, but it’s hard to see him as a possible title contender now. Especially after losing to Hester who has a 4-3 record in the UFC. But I don’t think Neto gets back on track against current top prospect Trevin Giles. 10-0. 25 years old. And won by 2nd round knockout in his UFC debut. Both fighters are talented and that makes it a really intriguing fight for me, but I have to pick Giles due to Neto not fighting in forever. Look for Giles to get a decision win here.