-Henry Cejudo: UPSET SPECIAL 1: At 125 lbs, I’d never seen Demetrious Johnson taken down. John Dodson got close. He took Johnson down, but couldn’t keep him down. But Cejudo is a wrestling gold medalist. And Cejudo showed the only flaw Johnson had in his game was having no answer against a superior wrestler. I see the exact same scenario playing out between Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw. Now, Dillashaw might be a champion, but he’s not invincible. He has a 12-3 record in the UFC. He lost to Dodson. Mostly from being out struck, but that was before Duane Ludwig. He was out struck by Dominick Cruz who’s very similar to Dillashaw. Pretty close to same skill set. And he got out grappled by Rafael Assuncao. And Dillashaw did win a rematch against Assuncao, but Assuncoa’s take downs are nowhere near the level of Cejudo. Looking over who Dillashaw has fought, he’s never taken on a wrestler of Cejudo’s caliber. I think it’s very likely Cejudo takes Dillashaw down. And then what is Dillashaw going to do? Plus, this is Dillashaw’s first ever cut to 125 lbs. How much of a toll is it going to take on his body? How much strength and power is he giving up? Dillashaw can absolutely win this fight. He has ways to win. He could stuff Cejudo’s take downs or have the ability to scramble back to his feet and knock Cejudo out. But I’m going with Cejudo because the more likely out come is that Dillashaw has no answer for the take downs. Same as Johnson. Cejudo by decision.
-Greg Hardy: Allen Crowder might have a 9-3 pro record, but it’s a bit padded. He’s lost to a fighter with a 4-2 record. And the best opponent he’s ever beat had a 3-1 record. Crowder is somewhat well rounded. His wrestling and submissions are below average, but he does have some skill there. Probably more than Hardy at this point. Crowder’s stand up is his best skill but it’s an average tool. Power is average. Hardy is going to be too fast and too powerful. Yes, Hardy probably needs to sharpen his take down defense, scrambles, grappling, etc to beat the best in the division. But Crowder will pose no threat in those areas. This fight will be more of the same. 1st round Hardy knockout.
-Gregor Gillespie: Not sure why Yancy Medeiros is going back to 155 lbs. He went 3-0 at 170 lbs and looked the best I’ve ever seen him. Then got knocked out by Donald Cerrone. And now he’s coming back to 155 lbs where Medeiros has a 3-4 UFC record. Gillespie has opened eyes and revealed himself to being an elite prospect. 5-0 in the UFC. 12-0 pro record. 5 knockouts. 5 submissions. He’s good everywhere. Plus wrestling. Plus submissions. Above average striking. He’ll beat Medeiros wherever he wants. Maybe he tries to knock Medeiros out to make a statement, but if he struggles at all, he can just take Medeiros down and submit him. I’ll go Gillespie by 1st round submission.
-Joseph Benavidez: I really thought Alex Perez was going to beat Benavidez. Boy, was I wrong. Benavidez blew Perez out of the water within 4 minutes. I’m thinking Demetrious Johnson finally no longer being champion and blocking Benavidez from getting a title shot, probably had something to do with it. And remember folks, Benavidez has a win over new champion Henry Cejudo that happened just 2 years ago. Cejudo’s last loss. Benavidez is going to be pretty motivated on the verge of another title shot. Dustin Ortiz has improved a ton the past couple years. He’s had a breakthrough in his striking and unlocking power. That’s what’s done it for him. His last 2 wins over possible contenders Alex Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau were huge. Ortiz absolutely deserves this spot. But stylistically, he’s going to have a hard time here. Ortiz has plus wrestling. Plus power. But his striking technique, accuracy, speed is average. Benavidez will use his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. Benavidez is going to be faster and more technical and will win by decision.
-Paige Vanzant: It’s easy to forget Vanzant is only 24 years old. She’s still developing and getting better. I think she would’ve ended up beating Jessica-Rose Clark had she not broken her arm. The UFC made this fight with Vanzant vs Rachael Ostovich as a good bounce back fight for Vanzant. Ostovich is an average prospect. Not very consistent. She has above average grappling. That’s her best tool. The rest of her tools are below average. Ostovich’s only pathway to win is some how taking Vanzant down and I don’t see her being able to do that with all the experience Vanzant has. Fight stays on the feet and Vanzant out points Ostovich to cruise to a decision win.
-Glover Teixeira: I really like Karl Roberson. Like his potential. Has plus striking. Close to plus grappling. He’s got a real foundation of tools to build on. Only 8 pro fights. 3-1 in the UFC so far. But he normally fights at 185 lbs. This fight against Teixeira will be at 205 lbs. Teixeira has had a full camp. Roberson is taking this fight on a week’s notice. Even though Teixeira is 39 years old, he’s still an elite upper tier gate keeper. And Teixeira is really good everywhere. I see Teixeira doing what Cezar Ferreira did to Roberson. Taking Roberson down and submitting him in the 1st round.
-Donald Cerrone: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Quick knockouts can sometimes be fluky. Not always, but sometimes. To me, I think Alexander Hernandez’s UFC debut knockout over Beneil Dariush was a little bit of that. Hernandez’s resume shows an above average prospect. Better than I thought he would be coming into the UFC. And he did beat a pretty good mid tier gate keeper in Oliver Aubin-Mercier. But he didn’t look as dominate. Now he’s facing off against Cerrone and it’s too much, too soon. Cerrone really impressed me in his last fight against Mike Perry. I haven’t seen him look this good in a couple years. Not sure why Cerrone didn’t stay at 155 lbs in the first place. He got knocked out by Rafael dos Anjos. But he also had wins over Edson Barboza, Eddie Alvarez and Ben Henderson. He’s really, really good at 155 lbs. Question is, he’s 35 years old, and how does Cerrone’s body handle cutting down to lightweight for the first time in 3 years. Not sure, but I am sure, he’s going to be good enough to knock Hernandez out in the 1st round.
-Joanne Calderwood: UPSET SPECIAL 4: A lot of times when fighters struggle to make weight, then move up a weight class, the results are a big step up. And that’s what happened in Calderwood’s 125 lb debut. For years, she struggled mightily to make 115 lbs. But looked like a completely different fighter against Kalindra Faria, who’s pretty decent. Calderwood is known for her muay thai, but she now trains at Tri Star and it seems she’s made improvements in her bottom submission game. Ariane Lipski gets a lot of hype. She’s a striker. And she’s fought some decent opponents outside the UFC. I just think striker vs striker, Calderwood has tons more experience in big fights than Lipski and that the confidence and experience will carry Calderwood to a decision win.
-Alonzo Menifield: Striker vs grappler. I think Vinicius Castro runs into trouble early due to his below average striking. He’s going to try and take Menifield down as quick as possible. But I think Menifield knocks him out before that happens. Menifield 1st round knockout.
-Corey Sandhagen: There’s couldn’t be a bigger gap in the quality in competition than going from fighting John Lineker on a full camp, to Mario Bautista on 1 week’s notice. Sandhagen is 2-0 in the UFC so far. 2 knockouts. Including a win over solid mid tier gate keeper Iuri Alcantara. Bautista is pretty green. 6-0 pro record. Making his UFC debut. 5 of his 6 wins were against tomato cans. He is coming off the biggest win in his career against a 7-1 wrestler. Bautista’s best tool is his grappling and submissions. But this fight against Sandhagen will get ugly for him real quick when he discovers he can’t take Sandhagen down. Sandhagen by 1st round knockout.
-Te Edwards: UPSET SPECIAL 5: I want to preface this pick by saying I could be wrong here. Picking Edwards has more to do with projection. Dennis Bermudez could definitely win this fight. He’s 32 years old. But has lost 4 in a row and lost 6 out of his last 8. He’s lost 3 in a row by split decision. Usually, Bermudez’s main path to victory is with his wrestling. But Edwards is a standout wrestler himself who I think can keep the fight on the feet. I see Edwards being way more patient and taking his time in this fight and giving Bermudez more respect than he paid Don Madge last time out. Edwards has the superior stand up and will win by decision.
-Geoff Neal: This fight will come down to whether Belal Muhammad will be able to take Neal down. I don’t think he’ll be able to. Muhammad’s wrestling is above average, but not plus. He’s 5-2 in the UFC. Striking is average at best. Neal has plus striking and will definitely knock Muhammad out in the the 2nd round if he can stuff the take downs.
-Chance Rencountre: Rencountre got his shot in the UFC due to fighting Belal Muhammad on short notice. He now gets a full camp against Kyle Stewart. I see Rencountre as being an average prospect. 12-3 pro record. Has beaten a couple decent fighters. And I do give him credit for rounding out his game. Rencountre has 12 pro wins. 2 of them came via submission. But those 2 submission wins have happened in 2 of his last 3 fights. But his best tool is still his striking. Stewart is more well rounded than him, better than Rencountre on the ground. But I think Rencountre has the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet where he’ll have an advantage. Interesting fight in that if Stewart had a full camp, I might pick him to win. But he’s taking this fight on less than a week’s notice. Because of that, I’m going with Rencountre by 3rd round knockout.