- #1 Ronda Rousey (0-0) vs. #6 Liz Carmouche (0-0)
Pick: Ronda Rousey – Seriously, anybody who is not picking Ronda Rousey to win this fight is hoping against hope that their +800 bet on Carmouche is going to make them a fortune. There’s no logical reason for Rousey to lose this fight. All of Ronda’s amateur fights and 5 of her 6 pro fights have ended within less than 60 seconds. Miesha Tate, who is easily the #2 best women’s bantamweight in the world, actually lasted over 4 minutes. Liz Carmouche is probably the least best female fighter signed in the UFC right now. Miesha Tate, Cat Zingano, Sara McMann, and Alexis Davis, all I think are superior to Carmouche. Carmouche has fought top competition twice. She lost to Marlos Coenen. Then lost to Sarah Kaufman. Yes, the same Sarah Kaufman who lost to Ronda Rousey in 54 seconds in Rousey’s last fight. Whether you think Rousey is going to win this fight is a boring debate. Nobody should be picking Liz Carmouche. The real debate should be whether or not Rousey will finish Carmouche in her average finishing time of less than a minute. My answer: because of Rousey’s track record, yes. Ronda Rousey will finish Liz Carmouche in 60 seconds or less. If that doesn’t happen, I will be surprised. Carmouche really didn’t earn this fight. She was just the only one with the guts to take it.
- #3 Dan Henderson (7-3) vs. #8 Lyoto Machida (10-3)
Pick: Dan Henderson – This fight is really a coin flip and I go back and forth on who I think is going to win. If Machida wins, I really won’t be surprised. This fight is really tough to pick because Dan Henderson is 42 years old, he’s coming off a serious injury and hasn’t fought since November of 2011. And Machida has looked good lately. But I don’t think Hendo has gone over the hill in a span of a year and usually the older veterans are less effected by long lay offs than the youger fighters are. And I think that with the right strategy, Machida is very beatable. Rampage Jackson, who was in the twilight of his career, didn’t look spectacular when he fought Lyoto, but he had the right strategy. Cut off Machida’s angles, rush him and go after him. The same thing Shogun did. I think Dan Henderson being as smart as he is, deploys the same strategy. And Hendo has the knockout power to finish the fight. But the clincher for me is the fact that Machida is telling everybody how he might be moving from light heavyweight to middleweight. To me, he’s already thinking about losing and as soon as you do that, you give yourself permission to fail. It’s OK if I lose and here’s what I’m going to do. That’s the way a loser thinks.
- #2 Urijah Faber (3-2) vs. #19 Ivan Menjivar (4-2)
Pick: Urijah Faber – Poor Urijah Faber has now lost 5 title fights in a row. Lost his WEC featherweight title to Mike Brown. Lost the rematch. Lost to Jose Aldo. Moved down to bantamweight. Lost to Dominick Cruz. Lost to Renan Barao. But the good news for Faber is that when he hasn’t been fighting for a title, he’s been dominant. Menjivar is the perfect bounce back fight for Faber because Menjivar is older, is not as quick as Barao, Cruz or Aldo (speed is what’s been giving Urijah fits). Faber knows that the bantamweight division if the UFC is still new and thin. With a win over Menjivar and another contender, Urijah Faber will get one more shot at the bantamweight title. And that will be enough motivation for him to be sharp in beating Ivan Menjivar.
- #12 Josh Koscheck (15-6) vs. Robbie Lawler (0-0)
Pick: Josh Koscheck – Koscheck is on the decline, but Robbie Lawler is even more on the decline. Lawler has had a ton of fights, has lost a few fights recently and hasn’t cut down to welterweight in forever. Koscheck is coming off a close decision lost to the #2 best welterweight in the world in Johny Hendricks. Josh isn’t what he once was, but he’s still got a heck of a lot more fights left than Lawler does.
- #49 Josh Neer (2-2) vs. Court McGee (0-0)
Pick: Court McGee – This fight really doesn’t belong on the main card of a Pay Per View. Anyway, a lot of experts are really down on Court McGee saying he’s average and not very good. I think most of those people are just tired of covering the Ultimate Fighter and want it to be irrelevant so they don’t have extra work lol. What I saw from McGee’s last fight was a controversial loss to Nick Ring. And Ring is turning into a contender at middleweight. Now McGee is cutting down to the weight he should have been at all along. Plus he’s fighting a one-dimensional, over the hill, just content to be picking up a paycheck fighter in Josh Neer. I see Court McGee winning this fight pretty easily.
- #22 Lavar Johnson (4-3) vs. #25 Brendan Schaub (4-3)
Pick: Lavar Johnson – For those that haven’t been paying attention, Lavar Johnson has really been coming into his own lately. His only speed bump recently was losing to top 10 ranked Stefan Struve, where Johnson looked good for awhile. Fighting is 50% mental and Brendan Schaub’s mental game has been off ever since losing to Big Nog in Brazil. He shouldn’t have lost to Ben Rothwell. And he shouldn’t lose to Johnson. But he did lose to Rothwell because he’s lost his confidence. And he won’t be Lavar Johnson for the same reason.
- #26 Dennis Bermudez (2-1) vs. #30 Matt Grice (1-1)
Pick: Dennis Bermudez – Bermudez is a beast and really should have won the Ultimate Fighter is it wasn’t for him getting too excited and being triangled by Diego Brandao. Look for Bermudez to be a contender in the featherweight division in next couple years. Matt Grice is good, but Dennis is better than him everywhere.
- #29 Mike Chiesa (1-0) vs. Anton Kuivanen (1-1)
Pick: Mike Chiesa – The season of the Ultimate Fighter that Chiesa won has already shown other fighters that didn’t win that season to have done very well in the UFC so far. And Chiesa is the best out of that crop. Mike is unique because not only does he have a very good wrestling game, his jiu jitsu game is top notch too. Kuivanen will have nothing for Chiesa.
- #44 Caros Fodor (2-1) vs. #45 Sam Stout (7-7)
Pick: Caros Fodor – I feel really bad for Sam Stout after he lost his head coach Shawn Tompkins. Just like Mark Hominick, Sam Stout has not looked like the same fighter since that tragedy took place. And Fodor is really good and one of Strikeforce’s best lightweight prospects.
- #49 Nah-Shon Burrell (1-1) vs. Yuri Villefort (0-1)
Pick: Yuri Villefort – This fight is a toss up. Burrell has finished fights on the big show of Strikeforce, but Villefort’s raw talent will win out here.
- Jon Manley (0-0) vs. Neil Magny (0-0)
Pick: Jon Manley – Neil Magny really isn’t the expert striker everybody makes him out to being. Manley beat some pretty good prospects on the Ultimate Fighter. Not in the most exciting fashion, but he did still beat them.
- Brock Jardine (0-1) vs. Kenny Robertson (0-2)
Pick: Brock Jardine – Kenny Robertson is one of those fighters that is a world beater when he fights prospects on regional shows, but just chokes under the bright lights. Jardine I think is a pretty good prospect at welterweight and had a tough first fight against a very good Rick Story. I think Jardine will do enough to get the win.