Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega
- Alexander Volkanovski
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes. Beat Max Holloway twice and Jose Aldo.
- Tools: Volkanovski has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
- Brian Ortega
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Frankie Edgar. Beat The Korean Zombie.
- Tools: Ortega has plus plus striking (80) and plus grappling (70).
The numbers don’t lie. I’ll admit hesitating a little bit at giving Ortega an 80 striking grade. He’s been known as a jiu jitsu guy for awhile. When Ortega fought Korean Zombie, Ortega out landed Zombie at a 2 to 1 clip. Crazy. At the time, I thought okay, Ortega’s striking has taken a step forward to a 75 and Zombie’s striking has regressed to a 65. Zombie has been in a lot of hard fights. Taking a step back. But then a funny thing happened. Zombie fought Dan Ige and showed that his 70 striking is indeed still intact. Which means when Ortega out classed Zombie, he did it with plus plus 80 striking. And Ortega even answered questions I had with his cardio. That lack of cardio is really what helped Max Holloway beat Ortega. But Ortega went the full 5 rounds with Zombie, no problem. With Volkanovski, he’s really surprised me with how good his wrestling has become, arguably his best tool. His cardio is elite. His striking is elite. The only real hole in his game is knockout power, but he can make up for that with his durability and out lasting guys. When he fought Holloway for a 2nd time, it looked like Holloway was cruising until the 4th round where Volkanovski showed to have more in the gas tank and started taking Holloway down. The issue for Volkanovski in this fight is yes, he probably will have better cardio than Ortega. But he’s not going to want to take Ortega down. Not with Ortega’s grappling. I do know that Ortega has more power than Volkanovski and I think that’s the key to the fight. Holloway came close to knocking out Volkanovski twice. I think Ortega finishes the job here.
Chris’ Pick: Ortega by 2nd round knockout.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-0 at 125 lbs. 10-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia.
- Tools: Valentina Shevchenko has plus plus striking paired with plus power (80-70). She also has near plus plus wrestling (75) and plus grappling (70).
- Lauren Murphy
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-0 at 125 lbs. 6-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat Roxanne Modafferi. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Tools: Murphy has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
Normally, I’d say betting Shevchenko is like picking up free money. But there comes a point in time where the risk and price gets so ridiculous, the likelihood of free money isn’t worth it. Most books opened Shevchenko around -700 to -800. That range I think is a fair price. But the money has come in so heavily on Shevchenko, it’s forced the odds makers to more than double the Shevchenko price with some books having her at -1,500. There’s just no way that makes sense. Shevchenko’s biggest threat to losing here is probably getting injured during the fight, getting a big cut above her eye and not being able to continue. And fluky stuff like that can happen! But yeah, I don’t see any path to victory for Murphy here.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by 2nd round knockout.
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler
- Nick Diaz
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Wins: Beat BJ Penn in 2011.
- Tools: Diaz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Robbie Lawler
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 9-6 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rory MacDonald. Split decision over Johny Hendricks and Carlos Condit.
- Tools: Lawler has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
It’s impossible to know where Diaz’s skills are really at. He’s only fought once in the last 8 years. His last fight was with Anderson Silva at 185 lbs and I was really impressed with what Diaz did. If he was maybe 1-2 years removed from that fight, I’d grade his striking as a 65. But he’s almost 7 years removed from that fight. He’s 38 years old. Even though Lawler has lost 4 in a row and 5 of his last 7 fights, he still looked decent when he fought Colby Covington. He lost because he got taken down a few times and his cardio couldn’t hold up. He lost to Neil Magny for the same reasons. Wrestling and cardio. And his loss to Ben Askren was a bit fluky too. My point is that Lawler has been active and despite the losses, hasn’t been terrible. If this was a 5 round fight, I’d give Diaz a better shot at winning, but it’s 3 rounds, so Lawler should be okay.
Chris’ Pick: Lawler by decision.
Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Tools: Blaydes has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Rozenstruik has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
Rozenstruik has been training at American Top Team now for over a year. The question is, how much has his wrestling improved? Because that’s really what this fight comes down to. Can he get back up if/when taken down? I think what’s most likely is that it’s just not enough time to improve his wrestling enough to stop someone like Blaydes from taking him down. I remember when Rozenstruik fought Overeem and Overeem was able to take him down and keep him there. And Overeem had 65 wrestling at the time.
Chris’ Pick: Blaydes by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
Jessica Andrade vs Cynthia Calvillo
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 125 lbs. 7-2 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Andrade has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Cynthia Calvillo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 125 lbs. 5-1-1 at 115 lbs.
- Key Draws: Fought Marina Rodriguez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho. Knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Beat Jessica Eye, Cortney Casey, Joanne Calderwood, and Gillian Robertson. Beat Aspen Ladd in an amateur bout in 2014.Tools:
- Tools: Calvillo has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has plus grappling (70).
Andrade has shown great resilience the past couple years. She lost her title to Zhang Weili, got knocked out in less than a minute. Then bounced back and lost a close split decision to Rose Namajuans. Knocked out Katlyn Chookagian. But then got destroyed by Valentina Shevchenko, like every female flyweight does. I was originally going to pick Andrade, but I’m switching my pick to the underdog Calvillo. The main reason is that although Andrade’s power has translated to 125 lbs just fine, I don’t think that’s the case with her wrestling. Yes, Shevchenko probably has 75 wrestling. But she took Andrade down at will. Basically whenever she wanted. Andrade isn’t as strong at 125 lbs as she was at 115 lbs. I think Calvillo’s going to watch the Shevchenko fight and see a whole bunch of ways to take Andrade down. And with Calvillo at +220, it’s worth a roll of the dice.
Chris’ Pick: Calvillo by 2nd round submission.
Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Marlon Moraes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. Submitted Assuncao in a rematch.
- Tools: Moraes has plus striking (70). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Beat Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Tools: Dvalishvili has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus wrestling (70).
My original pick was going to be Dvalishvili via take downs, but I rewatched his fight with Stamann and it was a lot, lot closer than I remember. I’m confident in saying Stamann has 65 wrestling and Dvalishvili’s wrestling was slightly better, but Stamann kept getting back up over and over again. Which means I think Moraes will be able to get back up if taken down. But the bigger problem for Moraes is that Dvalishvili will have a way, way bigger gas tank. Because of the pace Dvalishvili will put on, the smart approach for Moraes is to go all in on the 1st round and blitz Dvalishvili. Moraes had success doing this on the way to his title shot and I think he gets back to doing that here. Anything close to Moraes at +200 is really good value.
Chris’ Pick: Moraes by 1st round knockout.
Dan Hooker vs Nasrat Haqparast
- Dan Hooker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
- Tools: Hooker has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Nasrat Haqparast
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat Rafa Garcia and Marc Diakiese.
- Tools: Haqparast has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Tons of value in this fight as Haqparast gets another shot at the big time. I say another shot because it seems the betting public might have forgotten just last year Haqparast got a step up in competition against Drew Dober and Dober knocked him out in a minute. And I also remember last year when Hooker went toe to toe with Dustin Poirier and lost a close fight. And I’m looking at the line seeing Hooker at -155 and I’m just wondering, what am I missing?? Hooker has 2 legit paths to win. He’s been using his 70 wrestling more and more. He could take Haqparast down. But I’m pretty sure he’ll want to make a statement on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Hooker by 2nd round knockout.
Chris Daukaus vs Shamil Abdurakhimov
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexei Oleinik and Rodrigo Nascimento.
- Tools: Daukaus has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Shamil Abdurakhimov
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura.
- Tools: Abdurakhimov has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Daukaus really fooled me. Even after making his UFC debut, knocking out Parker Porter, I was skeptical. It was because back in 2019, Daukaus fought a 14-5 striker, Azunna Anyanwu. I’ve seen Anyanwu fight a couple times. He’s not that good, but he’s durable. But when Daukaus fought him, he gassed out going for the finish. Didn’t get the knockout, had nothing left, and Anyanwu knocked him out in the 2nd round. Underwhelming. So I was surprised when Daukaus was able to knock out Nascimento and then really, really surprised he knocked out Oleinik. Seems Daukaus learned his lesson and is a more patient fighter. So, I’m now sold. Abdurakhimov hasn’t fought in close to 2 years. It’s possible his striking could be a 55. I’m not sure. I’m grading it as a 60 for now. But it’s not going to matter because I’m very confident in Daukaus’ striking tool being a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 1st round knockout.
Roxanne Modafferi vs Taila Santos
- Roxanne Modafferi
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-6 in her 2nd UFC stint.
- Key Wins: Beat Andrea Lee and Maycee Barber. Split decision win over Antonina Shevchenko.
- Tools: Modafferi has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Talia Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mara Borella Romero.
- Key Wins: Beat Gillian Robertson, Molly McCann, and a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Santos has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
Poor Modafferi. This matchup with Santos is very similar to her last opponent Vivi Araujo. Except Santos is even better on the ground than Araujo. And it’s possible Santos striking could be a 70 too. This won’t be pretty. And then I see some books with Santos at -360? That’s crazy. In my opinion, Santos should be around a -550 favorite.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 1st round knockout.
Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Fiorot has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Mayra Bueno Silva
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
- Tools: Bueno Silva has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average grappling (60).
Despite only being two UFC fights in, Fiorot is already looking like a potential title contender. The most important question of this fight is how good is Fiorot’s wrestling. And I have it graded as a 60, based on what did with Leonardo, who has 55 grappling. Fiorot even took Leonardo down. Bueno Silva showed improved striking in her last fight with de la Rosa. It’s now a 60. But for all this talk of Bueno Silva having big power, I don’t agree with that. She’s got 7 pro wins and only 1 knockout. The KOs just aren’t there. But even if I’m wrong and Bueno Silva does have 60 power, it’s not going to matter. The biggest problem for Bueno Silva in this fight is going to be Fiorot’s likely cardio advantage. Bueno Silva really slowed down in the 3rd against de la Rosa. Fiorot looks like she has plus cardio. Will put a pace on Bueno Silva and I think by mid fight Bueno Silva will fold.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by 2nd round knockout.
Uros Medic vs Jalin Turner
- Uros Medic
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aalon Cruz and a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Medic has above average striking (60) and average grappling (50).
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-1 at 155 lbs. 4-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Turner has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
What are the chances the both the striking and grappling of Medic is better than I think? Doesn’t happen that often. Looking at the grades on paper. Turner has two ways to win. Taking Medic down. Or he could out strike him? But is it possible Medic’s striking is more like a 65? It’s possible. Is it possible that his grappling is more like a 55? Sure. What’s interesting about Medic is that 6 of his 7 fights have lasted only 4 minutes or less. 5 of his 7 wins have lasted 3 minutes or less. So I ask myself what happens if Medic blitzes Turner, per usual, and doesn’t get Turner out of there? What happens in the middle of the 2nd round? I also see that Medic has two triangle submission wins. Which means he can be taken down. So, is it possible Medic’s striking is equal to Turner’s? Yes. But I think what’s likely here is that Turner will be able to take Medic down. Slow him down. Tire him out. Then start to look for the KO in the 2nd half of the fight. And with Turner priced at -105, there’s not too much risk.
Chris’ Pick: Turner by 2nd round knockout.
Cody Brundage vs Nick Maximov
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Brundage has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Nick Maximov
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Maximov has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
I’m really intrigued with Maximov. The guy fights at middleweight. But when his original opponent on The Contender dropped out, to make sure he got a fight, Maximov took on a heavyweight. And not just any heavyweight, but a quality heavyweight with a 11-2 record. And Maximov beat the guy everywhere. Out struck him. Out grappled him. Pretty incredible. And what’s even more incredible is that all 5 of Maximov’s other wins were over tomato cans. So I’m not entirely sure what he looks like against a quality opponent at middleweight. But it’s possible he’s even better than where I’ve currently graded him. And with Brundage, I watched his last fight. Took on a 4-1 grappler who I think had 45 striking. Brundage easily won the 1st with his striking, but the grappler came back to out strike him in the 2nd. Now, I’m not sure if it’s because Brundage started to gas out or if the grappler just made adjustments, but I’m going to grade Brundage’s striking as a 50 for now. Could be a 45 however. And Brundage won the fight with his grappling in the 3rd. I have the tool graded at 55. Can’t be a 60 based on what William Knight did to him. I think Maximov has really good cardio. I see him pushing the pace. Brundage was training to fight on The Contender on October 5 so he’s fighting 10 days earlier. Not sure how his weight cut will go but won’t be easy.
Chris’ Pick: Maximov by decision.
Matt Semelsberger vs Martin Sano
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jason Witt. Beat a 10-1 striker.
- Tools: Semelsberger has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
- Martin Sano
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 4-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought to a majority draw with a well rounded 4-2 fighter.
- Tools: Sano has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
The only reason I think Sano is getting a shot here is he trains with Nick Diaz. Sano hasn’t fought in 4 in a half years. He started his career 4-0 but went 0-2-1 in his last 3 fights. It’s going to be a really tall order for him to show up on a pay per view card like this and out strike Semelsberger. But I don’t like Semelsberger at -400. It’s too heavy because for all we know, maybe Sano has been getting better this whole time. Semelsberger should win but the unknown of whether or not Sano has improved is going to make me stay away from betting this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Semelsberger by decision.
Omar Morales vs Jonathan Pearce
- Omar Morales
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Beat Shane Young and Gabriel Benitez.
- Tools: Morales has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kai Kamaka III and a 5-1 striker.
- Tools: Pearce has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This fight is priced about right. Morales at -150. Because I’m not sure what to make of Pearce’s wrestling skills. At the time, his upset over Kamaka looked really good. But Kamaka has gone 1-2-1 in the UFC so far, making it seem as if Kamaka’s wrestling is probably a 50. Which means Pearce’s wrestling is a 55? Maybe. Or maybe it’s a 60. Maybe he could get a couple take downs on Morales. Maybe Pearce could knock Morales out. Pearce does have more power. But despite all those maybes, Morales is most likely to win the fight because he has better striking, he just needs his chin to hold up.
Chris’ Pick: Morales by decision.