-Amanda Nunes: So easy to pick this fight. Raquel Pennington is getting this title shot more because of how the 135 lb division has been cleaned out. Not because people are clamoring for this fight because they think Pennington has a good chance. Ketlen Vieira will pose a way bigger threat. But this fight, it’s just a style nightmare for Pennington. She has solid wrestling, solid submissions. Decent stand up. Only path to victory for Pennington is if she can somehow take Nunes down. Because Nunes has knockout power and Pennington doesn’t. But if a in-her-prime Sara McMann wasn’t able to take Nunes down back in 2015, I highly doubt Pennington will be able to. Quick knockout in the 1st round for Nunes.
-Jacare Souza: Kelvin Gastelum has been getting better. 26 years old. 3-1 in the UFC at 185 lbs, technically 2-1 because his win over Vitor Belfort was turned into a no contest due to a positive test for weed. Most of Gastelum’s career, he’s been well rounded. No real standout tool, he’s just good everywhere and exploits his opponent’s weaknesses. But because of the lack of elite skills, when he goes against fellow well rounded fighters, he can have a tough time winning. Evidence being that he’s had 13 fights in the UFC and 4 of them were split decisions. Almost all champions and even contenders are good everywhere, so for Gastelum to take the next step, he’s got to be elite somewhere. And I think the elite skill he’s working on is his stand up. In his last 2 fights, he almost knocked out Chris Weidman and did knockout Michael Bisping. Gastelum isn’t going anywhere. He’s going to continue to get better. He’ll eventually fight for the title. But it’s not his time now and this is a bad matchup for him with Jacare. Jacare is now elite at striking. I doubted him in his last fight against Derek Brunson and Jacare really proved me wrong, beating Brunson at his own game. So right off the bat, I think Jacare’s striking beats Gastelum’s. But the path of least resistance is how Weidman beat Gastelum. Which is take him down and submit him. So with how much is on the line in this fight, I think Jacare plays it safe. Clinches Gastelum. Takes him down. And submits him in the first round, finally securing Jacare his long overdue title shot.
-Amanda Bobby Cooper: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Very, very surprising the UFC is matching up potential star MacKenzie Dern against Cooper. Very surprising considering how much Dern struggled to beat Ashley Yoder by split decision. A fight Dern probably would’ve lost had it not been for Yoder gassing out at the end of the fight. And Yoder is at the bottom of the 115 lb division. Yoder is now 0-4 in the UFC. They gave Dern the softest opponent possible to look good. And Dern showed she’s not ready for the elite yet. Cooper is very good. She’s 4-2 in the UFC. Has only lost to rising title contenders Tatiana Suarez and Cynthia Calvillo. 26 years old. I just don’t see how Dern beats Cooper. Dern showed in her fight with Yoder that her striking is wild and needs a lot of work in technique. But most importantly, she needs to work on her wrestling and take down grappling. Like, she’s great when she gets her opponent on the ground, but she struggled big time in taking Yoder down. Cooper has solid wrestling. I think Cooper keeps the fight on the feet where she’s going to have a big advantage in the striking. Cooper is by far the toughest opponent Dern has gone against and I’m very confident in saying Dern is not ready for it. Cooper by decision.
-John Lineker: Brian Kelleher is a great story. Journeyman fighting on the regional circuit wins 6 in a row, gets a short notice fight and makes good on it by upsetting and submitting upper tier gate keeper Iuri Alcantara. Despite the feel good story and the 3-1 UFC record for Kelleher, I just don’t see how he beats an elite fighter in Lineker. Lineker started out at 125 lbs in the UFC. Went 6-2. But has elevated to another level at 135 lbs. Probably because the 125 lb weight cut was so brutal (and most of the time, he didn’t make the 125 lb weight). But at 135 lbs, he’s not as drained, cardio is way better. Has more power. Has gone 5-1, with wins over contenders like Rob Font and John Dodson. Only lost to 135 lb champion TJ Dillashaw. How is Kelleher supposed to win? Keller does not have any stand out tools. Yes, he has a great guillotine, but his other submission skills are good, not great. His striking is good. Wrestling is good. He’s well rounded. And in order to beat elite fighters, you need elite tools, elite skills. Kelleher doesn’t have them and at 31 years of age, he’s likely reached his ceiling in development. So I’m going with Lineker by 2nd round knockout.
-Lyoto Machida: Both Machida and Vitor Belfort are on the brink of retirement. But Machida has easily shown to be the more relevant and competitive. Especially after Machida’s win over top prospect Eryk Anders. Belfort hasn’t looked the same since not being allowed on TRT and was very lackluster in his last fight in beating fellow retiring fighter Nate Marquardt. This is an easy fight to pick and Machida will use his trademark boring elusiveness to outpoint Belfort to a decision win.
-Karl Roberson: We all know what Cezar Ferreira brings to the table. He’s a decent mid tier gate keeper. 8-4 UFC record. 33 years old. Only 2 of his UFC wins have been finishes. His best tool is his wrestling. Submissions are average. Striking is below average. How does he lose? When he gets blitzed, he can be knocked out in the first round. Matter of fact, 4 of his 6 pro losses have been 1st round knockouts? So what is opponent Roberson good at? Blitzing and finishing in the 1st round. And 5 of his 6 pro wins have via blitz and 1st round finish. And those wins weren’t over a bunch of nobodies. He fought decent prospects before the UFC. Plus finishes on the Contender Series and a finish in his UFC debut. This match up screams 1st round knockout Roberson.
-Alexey Oleynik: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Count me as not a believer in the upside of Junior Albini. He’s got a well rounded skill set, but he feasted on tomato cans before signing with the UFC. Yes, he knocked out Timothy Johnson, who’s pretty good. But with knockouts, especially at heavyweight, fighters can get lucky. If we’re to believe that Albini is this great striker and rising prospect, how does he explain getting out struck by 39 year old Andrei Arlovski who had lost 5 fights in a row at that point. Meanwhile, Oleynik is ultra under rated. Maybe one of the most under rated fighters in the UFC. He’s the rare fighter who still competes at a high level despite his age of 40 years. 4-2 in the UFC. All 4 wins were finishes. 3 of the 4 in the 1st round. He’s only lost to contender Curtis Blaydes and to Danel Omeilanczuk via bad majority decision. Should be 5-1 in the UFC. In any case, Oleynik is so good, it’s possible he wins a few more and gets a title shot. He’s that good and Blaydes is that good. Anyway, in this fight with Albini, it’s easy. Oleynik is going to do what he does. Have no problems taking Albini down and submitting him in the 1st round.
-Davi Ramos: Nick Hein is a very one dimensional wrestler. How one dimensional? In his last 10 wins, Hein has only finished 1 opponent. 9 out of the last 10 wins have been via decision. And it’s not like Hein is young and developing. He’s 34 years old. This is who he is. Yes, he does have a 4-1 record in the UFC, but he’s beat low quality competition that had no take down defense. Ramos is 31 years old, but I consider him to be a prospect because he’s only had 9 pro fights. I think he’s still getting better. And he has phenomenal Brazilian ju-jitsu. So stylistically, it’s a very bad fight for Hein. Because if he tries to takes Ramos down, it’ll be a big mistake, putting the fight where Ramos wants it. I predict Hein taking Ramos down because, how else does he win fights? And I predict Ramos submits him in the 1st round.
-Sean Strickland: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Razor close fight. Both fighters are very similar. Volume strikers. They lose when they can be outwrestled and outgrappled. I’m going to make this pick a little bit on projection as I see Strickland as still developing at 27 years old and Elizeu dos Santos as more of a finished product at 31. Plus there’s also performance evidence that Strickland has the edge. Strickland has only lost to title contenders Santiago Ponzinibbio and Kamaru Usman. Dos Santos has lost to Nicolas Dalby who’s been released by the UFC and won a close split decision over Lyman Good. If Good was almost able to outpoint and outstrike dos Santos, it makes me think Strickland will get the job done and win via decision.
-Warlley Alves: I’m not sure what Alves’ upside is at this point. 27 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Has a submission win over title challenger Colby Covington. Has beaten very good opponents in Alan Jouban and Nordine Taleb. He’s only lost when he’s been outwrestled. Alves’ wrestling is good, not great. Stand up is average. Submissions are his stand out tool. Alves’ game plan usually is to take his opponent down and submit them. So Alves needs to improve his wrestling and striking, but whatever the upside is, this fight against Sultan Aliev is a gimmie for him. Aliev’s career looked promising years ago, but injuries have derailed him. He’s only fought twice in the last four years. And he’s primarily a striker. A striker who was out struck and knocked out by lower tier gate keeper Kenny Robertson back in 2014. Alves will have no problem taking down Aliev in this fight and is going to submit him in the 2nd round.
-Jack Hermansson: Thales Leites has been a really strong gate keeper at 185 lbs, but at 36 years old and losing the last 4 out of 6 fights, I think he’s heading towards the end. Styles make fights and this fight against Hermansson is not good for Leites. How has Leites lost his last 4 fights? By his opponents keeping the fight on the feet and being out struck. And usually Hermansson will use his dominant wrestling to take his opponents down, but in this fight, he’lll use his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet where he has better striking than Leites. Because of this, I’m going with Hermansson via decision.
-Ramazan Emeev: Super easy fight to pick here. Alberto Mina. Been around the prospect circle for awhile. But perhaps too long, as Mina is now 35 years old. He’s one of those fighters that has not been able to stay very active. Since 2010, last 8 years, Mina has only fought 5 times. Yes, he is 3-0 in the UFC, but those are also his last 3 fights since 2014. To make matters worse, he’s fighting a monster of a prospect in Emeev. Looking at Emeev’s profile outside the UFC, it’s not spectacular. Doesn’t have the hallmarks of a blue chip prospect. But he really opened my eyes in his UFC debut against a very good fighter in Sam Alvery. And yes, Alvey did fight on less than 2 weeks notice, didn’t make weight, and was probably depleted in the fight. But still, Alvey is a very big 185 lb fighter (who recently has moved up to 205 lbs). And Emeev rag dolled Alvey in that fight with his wrestling. Now Emeev is cutting down to 170 lbs where he’s going to be even bigger. And he takes on Mina, who’s got solid striking, decent brazilian ju-jitsu. But lacks in wrestling. Take down defense, not great. The UFC brass might see a potential star in Emeev and needs them as they’re heading into the Russian market. To me, they made this fight to make Emeev look like a star. Emeev by 1st round submission.
-Markus Perez: Despite Perez losing his UFC debut, I still view him as an elite prospect. He’s very well rounded. 27 years old. Has already beat some big names outside the UFC. And the debut fight he lost was close, taken on really short notice and against rising contender Eryk Anders. I really don’t know why the UFC signed James Bochnovic. He beat up on tomato cans on the regional circuit. He didn’t beat a single decent prospect. Bochnovic is a submission specialist. Perez has strong enough wrestling to keep the fight on the feet and because Bochnovic’s stand up is so rudimentary, Perez is going to knock him out in the 1st round.