Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 14-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Volkanovski, Bobby Green, and Gleison Tibau. Submitted Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Alexander Volkanovski, Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 155 lbs. 11-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner. Beat Drew Dober and Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Makhachev definitely proved he has 75 striking in his last fight with Poirier.
Chris’ Pick: Makhachev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Makhachev -200
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Beat Sean O’Malley, Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus plus (80)
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raoni Barcelos. Submitted Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Bekzat Almakhan, Nathan Maness, a 12-0-1 grappler, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus plus (80)
Both are matched up really well here but I give Dvalishvili the slightest of edges with his cardio and experience in big fights.
Chris’ Pick: Dvalishvili by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dvalishvili -135
Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill
- Jiri Prochazka
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Reyes, Volkan Oezdemir, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Submitted Glover Teixeira. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute, and Ovince St Preux. Beat Glover Teixeira, Thiago Santos, and Darko Stosic.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Prochazka actually out struck Alex Pereira in their first fight 26 to 22. So it seemed like okay, Pereira knocked him out, but fight was close up to that point. Then Prochazka fights Aleksandar Rakic. Prochazka gets the KO but Rakic lands more 56 to 45. Okay, looks like Rakic’s striking leveled up to a 75 grade. Prochazka rematches Pereira and this time it’s not close. Pereira beats him on the feet 21 to 6. And also, 70 striker Magomed Ankalaev fights Rakic and striking was close to equal. All that said, it looks like the truth is that Rakic had 70 striking all along and Prochazka hasn’t been the same since Pereira knocked him out the first time.
Chris’ Pick: Hill by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hill -250
Jailton Almeida vs Sergei Spivac
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov and Danilo Marques. Submitted Alexandr Romanov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler. Beat Derrick Lewis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcin Tybura, Derrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -200
Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-6 at 185 lbs. 13-8 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Reinier de Ridder
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 18-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Gerald Meerschaert, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, a 17-1 grappler, and a well rounded 23-4 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 30-6 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
De Ridder’s grappling is definitely a 70 after seeing him submit Meerschaert. Wish I could’ve seen more of his striking. Possible it’s a 70 tool.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holland -135
Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Aguirre. Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri, Cameron Saaiman, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Reyes Cortez Jr.
- Striking: near plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cristian Quinonez and Chris Guttierez. Beat Trevin Jones, Khalid Taha, and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I’m very confident Quinonez’s striking is at least a 60. And even though Barcelos seemed to have taken a step back in the Kyler Phillips fight, he showed that might have been an outlier as he out struck Quinonez 38 to 26.
Chris’ Pick: Talbott by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Talbot: -300
Zachary Reese vs Azamat Bekoev
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Jose Medina.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Azamat Bekoev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 18-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Split decision over Dylan Budka.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m confident Medina’s tools are no worse than 55’s. And Reese did out strike him 57 to 30. But that number is largely propped up by Reese’s fast start in the 1st round out striking him 20 to 4. Reese might be another one of these fighters that blitzes in the 1st round and looks great when he gets the finish, but slows down after the half way point of the fight. Lucas Fernando’s fight with Cesar Almeida on the Contender is really helpful in evaluating Bekoev. Because Fernando actually out struck Almeida, despite losing the fight. And Bekoev fought Fernando right after his Almeida fight. Worth noting that Bekoev is taking this fight on a week’s notice.
Chris’ Pick: Bekoev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bekoev -175
Billy Elekana vs Bogdan Guskov
- Billy Elekana
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker and another 4-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Bogdan Guskov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, a well rounded 13-3 fighter and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I saw Elekana in the PFL. Wasn’t too impressed. Didn’t throw many combinations. He is fast though and think his striking is closest to a 60 grade, but could be as low as a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Guskov by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Guskov -250
Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 11-1-1
- Key draws: Fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafa Garcia, Leonardo Santos. Submitted Mark O. Madsen, Jared Gordon, and Michael Trizano. Beat Joe Solecki, Damir Ismagulov and Nad Narimani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Diego Ferreira
- Age: 39
- UFC record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Beneil Dariush.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Pettis. Knocked out Michael Johnson. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I’m pretty sure Ferreira has 65 striking. Striking with Johnson was close to equal. But then he takes on Rebecki, who closed as a -470 favorite over Ferreira, and the numbers on the feet are lopsided with Ferreira out landing him 94 to 46. Wow. So what happened? Striking in the 1st round was close 24 to 21. But then Rebecki got a bad cut in the 2nd round and probably couldn’t see well. That’s when Ferreira started taking over. The numbers say I could be wrong and a 70 grade for Ferreira’s striking is possible, but I think a 65 is more plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dawson -200
Ailin Perez vs Karol Rosa
- Ailin Perez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Dariya Zheleznyakova. Beat Joselyne Edwards, Lucie Pudilova, and Ashlee Evans Smith
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Pannie Kianzad, Joselyne Edwards, and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio. Majority decision over Lina Lansberg. Split decision over Yana Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Perez’s 70 wrestling was reaffirmed in her last fight with how she submitted Zheleznyakova in 3 minutes.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Perez -125
Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov
- Rinya Nakamura
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 10-2 fighter and a 9-2 grappler. Beat Carlos Vera, Fernie Garcia, and a 23-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Muin Gafurov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-6
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-1 grappler, a 5-1 grappler, and a 10-2-1 grappler. Beat Kyung Ho Kang and an 11-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
If Gafurov got taken down repeatedly by Kang, he’s going to have problems with Nakamura.
Chris’ Pick: Nakamura by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nakamura -250
Bernardo Sopaj vs Ricky Turcios
- Bernardo Sopaj
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-4 wrestler and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 6-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ricky Turcios
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision wins over Kevin Natividad, Brady Hiestand, and Steve Garcia.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Sopaj was so impressive in his UFC debut, took it on just a few days notice. Was beating Vinicius Oliveira, but then started to run out of gas towards the end of the 2nd round.
Chris’ Pick: Sopaj by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite shoud be at: Sopaj -300
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Clayton Carpenter
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden, Nathan Maness, a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Allan Nascimento.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Clayton Carpenter
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Lucas Rocha, Juancamilo Ronderos, a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I’m very confident in where I graded Ulanbekov’s grappling, especially after what he did with Durden.
Chris’ Pick: Ulanbekov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ulanbekov -500