
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas 2
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Loopy Godinez, Angela Hill, and Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana. Beat Viviane Araujo. Split decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luana Pinheiro. Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Virna Jandiroba, Randa Markos, and MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
It’s been established that Rose Namajunas has 75 striking and 70 grappling at 125 lbs. Ribas is a small flyweight, but last time out against Namajunas, her striking leveled up to a 75 grade. Now she moves back down to 115 lbs where that tool should play up even more. I also still question Dern’s cardio in a 5 round fight outside of her win over Hill. I’ve seen her gas out a lot.
Chris’ Pick: Ribas by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ribas -250
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov, Michel Pereira, and Geoff Neal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Morono, Gunnar Nelson, and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Impa Kasanganay and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Jeremiah Wells, a 17-1 grappler. Beat Jared Gooden, Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Ponzinibbio is probably starting to regress. Or, he could’ve just had a bad night against Muslim Salikhov. Slight chance of that as he’s had consistent 70 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Harris by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Harris -125
Cesar Almeida vs Razak Abdul Alhassan
- Cesar Almeida
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Roman Kopylov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dylan Budka. Beat Ihor Potieria and a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Joaquin Buckley and Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Alessio di Chirico, and Niko Price.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I had Almeida’s striking as a 70, but Potieria actually out struck Almeida 42 to 41, so unless Potieria’s striking has elevated to a 70 I think a 65 grade for Almeida is most plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -300
Chris Curtis vs Roman Kopylov
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brendan Allen.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley, Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Split decision over Marc Andre Barriault. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Fremd, Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Cesar Almeida.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
After Kopylov’s last fight with Almeida, I can’t defend a 70 grade for his striking anymore as Almeida out struck him 51 to 32.
Chris’ Pick: Kopylov by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kopylov -135
Christian Rodriguez vs Austin Bashi
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat Cameron Saaiman, Raul Rosas Jr, and a 5-1 striker. Split decision over Isaac Dulgarian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Austin Bashi
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 14-3 striker. Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat an 8-1 grappler and a 9-3 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I know Bashi has a lot of hype, but I highly doubt his grappling is a 70. Coming into the Contender, I thought it was a 60 tool. After seeing him beating Ramos, ok, probably a 65 tool, but not a 70. Striking tool definitely isn’t any better than a 60. Even a slight chance it’s a 55. Rodriguez also has experience beating very hyped prospects as he has a win over Rosas Jr.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -250
Uros Medic vs Punahele Soriano
- Uros Medic
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matthew Semelsberger, Omar Morales, Aalon Cruz, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 170 lbs. 5-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nick Maximov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula, Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat Miguel Baeza, Jamie Pickett, and a 7-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Soriano had a weird welterweight debut. Baeza looked good in the 1st round, had a couple decent submission attempts in. Appeared to gas himself out after the 1st and then Soriano took over after that. I had Soriano with 60 tools at middleweight. Very possible the cut to 170 lbs plays his tools up to 65’s, but he was losing the 1st round to Soriano.
Chris’ Pick: Medic by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Medic -135
Felipe Bunes vs Jose Johnson
- Felipe Bunes
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 13-7
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker, a well rounded 7-0-1 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wresting: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jose Johnson
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 16-9
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-1 grappler. Lost to a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a 4-1 wrestler, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Chad Anheliger and a 6-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Hard to grade Bunes as he fought Joshua Van in his UFC debut and Van had his typical slow start when Bunes out struck him 29 to 15. But then Van turned it up in the 2nd out landing him 47 to 20.
Chris’ Pick: Bunes by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bunes -200
Ihor Potieria vs Marco Tulio
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua and an 8-0 striker. Beat Robert Bryczek.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Marco Tulio
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 striker, a well rounded 22-7 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat a 5-2 striker and a 6-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Tulio showed up as a monster -470 favorite over Matthieu Duclos on the Contender, because the market thinks Tulio has well rounded 65 tools. And the market could be right, but currently, I think his wrestling is more of a 60. Slight, small chance Potieria’s striking could be a 70 due to him out striking Cesar Almeida 42 to 41. Small chance Potieria has 65 wrestling.
Chris’ Pick: Potieria by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Potieria -135
Trey Ogden vs Thiago Moises
- Trey Ogden
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jordan Leavitt.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Loik Radzhabov, Kurt Holobaugh, Daniel Zellhuber, and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mitch Ramirez and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Melquizael Costa, Christos Giagos, and Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Ogden’s improvement seems like it’s for real. He’s a much better fighter than he used to be. I see this fight going similar to how Moises’ last fight with Ludovit Klein went.
Chris’ Pick: Ogden by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ogden -250
Jacobe Smith vs Preston Parsons
- Jacobe Smith
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Preston Parsons
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and Evan Elder.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Oban Elliott’s last fight was against Basil Hafez and Elliott dominated the fight showing he’s much better than I thought. So then measuring Elliott’s 65 striking and 70 wrestling against Parsons, it seems Parsons is also probably better than I thought. Smith closed as a -900 favorite over Christien Savoie on the Contender, has a ton of hype. Demolished Savoie. But I’m decently confident I have him graded accurately, small sample size, but the striking with Savoie was equal. I think Savoie was actually a little better than I thought he’d be. Smith will probably be favored, but keep in mind, he’s taking this fight on less than a week’s notice.
Chris’ Pick: Parsons by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Parsons -135
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Nicolle Caliari
- Ernesta Kareckaite
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-1-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over a 3-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Nicolle Caliari
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Corinne Laframboise, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Kareckaite’s plus cardio makes her striking really close to a 65 with the way she turns it on in the latter part of fights.
Chris’ Pick: Caliari by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Caliari -135
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs Bruno Lopes
- Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 striker and an 11-4 wrestler. Majority decision over Brendson Ribeiro.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bruno Lopes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues and a 13-2 striker. Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Slight chance Gadzhiyasulov’s wrestling could be a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Gadzhiyasulov by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gadzhiyasulov -135
Fatima Kline vs Viktoriia Dudakova
- Fatima Kline
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker and a well rounded 6-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Viktoriia Dudakova
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sam Hughes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Maria Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Dudakova’s grappling is really close to a 70. Only ingredient she’s missing for the tool to be a 70 is better cardio. Kline’s wrestling is right on the bubble between a 60 and a 65 but I think it’s closer to a 65 as when she made her UFC debut against Jasmine Jasudavicius she took it on really short notice.
Chris’ Pick: Kline by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kline -200
Nurullo Aliev vs Joe Solecki
- Nurullo Aliev
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler. Beat a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Majority decision wins over Rafael Alves and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jared Gordon.
- Key Wins: Submitted Carl Deaton, Austin Hubbard, and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Jim Miller. Majority decision over Alex da Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Solecki by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Solecki -225