-Luke Rockhold: The fact that Rockhold is fighting David Branch really goes to show how UFC middleweights still fear Rockhold in not taking the fight with him. Before losing the title to Michael Bisping, Rockhold finished a who’s who of the best in the world at 185 lbs. Chris Weidman. Lyoto Machida. Bisping in their first fight. Tim Boetsch. There’s a consensus in the industry that Rockhold didn’t take Bisping seriously and is the big reason he lost. That once Rockhold fights for the title again, he’s pretty likely to win it back. Meanwhile, Branch doesn’t pose a threat to Rockhold anywhere. And his main strength of grinding, pushing a fighter against the fence, getting takedowns, will be neutralized by Rockhold. In Branch’s last fight he picked up a split decision win over Krzysztof Jotko. That win was Branch’s ceiling. The biggest type of win I’d expect him to get. He’s 35 years old. Not much development left. I don’t think I need to continue. You probably get the idea that Branch doesn’t have much of a chance. Rockhold by 2nd round knockout.
-Mike Perry: It’s a shame that Thiago Alves pulled out of the fight with Perry. Putting that aside, Alex Reyes is one of the better debuting short notice fighters the UFC could find. Reyes is a decent prospect. He started out his career losing twice to pro debuting fighters, so he started out 0-2. Since then, he’s won 13 fights in a row including finishes over solid prospects Victor Meza and especially Gil Guardado. But there’s a few big, obvious reasons why Reyes doesn’t have much of a chance. First, he’s taking the fight on a few days notice. Second, Reyes usually fights at 155 lbs. This fight’s at 170 lbs. And third, Perry is a rising star in the UFC that not only has a title shot in the future, we’re talking about a guy that could become champion. He’s probably the top prospect at welterweight right now. Perry’s only weakness so far is that he needs to clean up the technical aspects of his striking as shown in his only loss to Alan Jouban. Other than that, Perry is very well rounded with massive knockout power. In this fight, we’re looking at a first round knockout folks.
-Anthony Smith: Smith’s record might not look that great, being 27-12 overall, but don’t let that fool you. He’s gone 10-1 in his last 11 fights, going 3-1 in his 2nd UFC stint (he previously got 1 fight in the UFC years ago and was released). The head kick knockout over solid prospect Andrew Sanchez was especially impressive. Smith is also 29 years old and coming into his prime. Meanwhile, Hector Lombard is 39 years old and has lost 3 fights in a row and lost the last 4 out of 6. I feel bad for saying this, but I think his career is done. Fighters usually towards the tail end of their career also start to lack confidence and Smith’s confidence and hunger couldn’t be any higher right now. I think Smith gets the knockout in the 2nd round.
-Gregor Gillespie: Gillespie isn’t the best lightweight prospect in the world, but he’s pretty good. 30 years old. One of his biggest wins I think came when he had a 2-0 record and was brought in to make 6-1 Justin Harrington look good, but upset Harrington and submitted him in the first round. The Sidney Outlaw fight wasn’t Gillespie’s best but he got the split decision win. Now Gillespie is 2-0 in the UFC with a decision win over a pretty good fighter Glaico Franca and just knocked out Andrew Holbrook in 21 seconds. His opponent Jason Gonzalez is one of those fighters where you never know which Gonzalez is going to show up on fight night. The Gonzalez who’s finished Christos Giagos, Chris Padilla, and JC Cottrell. Or the Gonzalez that loses fights he shouldn’t like he did against Shane Lees and Dionisio Ramirez. Thing is, I could see Gonzalez pulling the upset. But Gillespie is pretty similar to Drew Dober, Gonzalez’s last opponent he lost to. I can see Gillespie coming out in a flurry, same as Dober, and knocking out Gonzalez. That’s what I’m picking because it’s most likely to happen.
-Kamaru Usman: Really easy fight to pick. On the surface, it looks like it could be a close fight. Usman is 5-0 in the UFC. Sergio Moraes is 6-1 in the UFC. And Moraes is 6-0 at 170 lbs. But it’s not going to be a close fight at all. There’s a big difference in the quality of wins both fighters have racked up. On the one hand, Usman has wins over potential contenders Leon Edwards, Warlley Alves, and Sean Strickland. On the other, Moraes’ biggest wins are over Omari Akhmedov, Zak Ottow, and Neil Magny*. And I put the asterisk there because when Moraes fought Magny back in 2013, Magny wasn’t the same fighter that he is now. Magny started his career 1-2 in the UFC losing to Moraes and Seth Baczynski. But then Magny took a leap in development and is now 12-4 in the UFC. Like if they had a rematch, I’m really confident Magny would win. But my main point is that Usman’s 5-0 record is way better than Magny’s 6-1 record because of who Usman has beat. And Moraes is supposed to be this submission artist, but the record shows he doesn’t have a submission win since 2013. And the truth is that Usman has beat multiple fighters already better than Moraes, so this is Usman all day. The only question I really have is has Usman developed since we last saw him and will it translate into a finish? Possibly. Maybe. Maybe I can see an Usman knockout by the 2nd round. He should be getting better.
-Justin Ledet: Another really easy fight to pick right here. Justin Ledet has some top prospect pedigree. Off to a 2-0 start in the UFC. 28 years old, coming into his prime. But the biggest reasons it’s an easy pick has more to do with his opponent Azunna Anyanwu. Anyanwu is 36 years old. Fighting on a couple weeks notice. And he’s never been more than a journeyman since picking up decent wins over Chris Birchler (now a light heavyweight) and Shawn Teed. Anyanwu is going to get overwhelmed here. I see Ledet taking Anyanwu down and submitting him in the 1st round.
-Oliver Aubin-Mercier: Really good fight between 2 dark horse, potential contenders in the lightweight division. Both Aubin-Mercier and Tony Martin are at close to the same point in their careers. Aubin-Mercier is 28 years old with a 5-2 UFC record. Martin is 27 years old. 4-3 record. For me, this fight comes down to the style matchup. Aubin-Mercier is a phenomenal wrestler and his specialty is the ground game. And that happens to be Martin’s big weakness. I don’t think Martin will be able to keep the fight on the feet and I think we’re looking at another Aubin-Mercier submission. 2nd round.
-Anthony Hamilton: Normally when you have a 37 year fighter like Hamilton fighting a 27 year fighter like Daniel Spitz, usually, I’d pick the younger fighter. But Spitz is not that good of a prospect. He’s very green and hasn’t beaten anybody of significance. Hamilton probably won’t last much longer in the UFC, not just because he’s 37, but also has a 3-5 record in the octagon. But he’ll knock out opponents that don’t belong in the UFC and I think that’s Spitz. Hamilton by first round knockout.
-Uriah Hall: UPSET SPECIAL: Yes, Krzysztof Jotko has a shiny 6-2 record in the UFC. But it’s padded. Meaning that 5 of Jotko’s 6 wins have been against fighters that the UFC has released already. And out of those 5 wins, 4 of them were via decision. So in other words, Jotko has been failing to finish average fighters. Which doesn’t bode well against Hall who’s is a good gatekeeper with knockout power. I think Hall knocks Jotko out in the 2nd round.
-Gilbert Burns: Real coin flip of a fight here. Both fighters are 31 years old. Very similar records in the UFC. Burns is 4-2 and Jason Saggo is 3-2. But I feel confident picking Burns here because he’s shown an ability to not only beat pretty good competition, but finish them with his elite submission skills. Saggo really hasn’t. The only decent fighter he’s beat in the UFC so far was Leandro Silva and Saggo only won by split decision. Plus, the only fights Burns has lost is when his opponent is able to outmuscle, wrestle and grind him. And Saggo isn’t that type of fighter. Look for Burns to be able to get the take down and tap Saggo in the 1st round.