-Josh Emmett: UPSET SPECIAL 1: After doubting Emmett’s prospect resume, he’s made a believer out of me. How impressive is his knockout over Ricardo Lamas? Since Lamas joined the UFC in 2011, he’s only lost to 3 fighters. Let’s see if you’ve ever heard of them. Chad Mendes. Max Holloway. And Jose Aldo. And now Emmett. Lamas is now 9-4 in the UFC. Jeremy Stephens is a quality, upper tier gate keeper, but he’s no contender. He’s 7-5 in the UFC at 145 lbs. Besides losing to the elite of the division, he’s also lost to Charles Oliveira and Renato Moicano. So he can be outstruck. Emmett has momentum. He’s got belief. I think Emmett wins by decision because Stephens’ chin is so durable. But definitely like Emmett to outstrike Stephens and hurt him with a few significant strikes.
-Jessica Andrade: This fight isn’t close. Tecia Torres is a very good 115 lb fighter. But I don’t think she’ll ever become champion because her tools aren’t sharp enough to finish opponents. Her best attribute is that she’s super fast. And a very technical, volume striker. But out of 10 pro wins, she only has 1 submission win. 9 decision wins. She outpoints her opponents. Andrade he super explosive. Super powerful. I picture Andrade having a hard time catching and striking Torres on the feet, so I see Andrade taking Torres down and ground and pounding her in the 2nd round for the win.
-Ovince St. Preux: Razor close fight. Pretty similar fighters. Both are 34 years old. St. Preux is 10-5 in the UFC. Ilir Latifi is 6-3 in the UFC. Latifi has less fight milage on his body. I give the slight edge to St. Preux for a couple reasons. First, Latifi doesn’t have any big time wins on his resume. Anytime he’s taken a step up, he gets beat. Meanwhile St. Preux has quality wins on his resume like Corey Anderson, Marcos Pezao, Shogun in 2014, Patrick Cummins, Nikita Krylov. That’s a long list of quality names. Plus Latifi can be knocked out. He’s been knocked out by Jan Blachowicz and Ryan Bader. He can be outstruck. St. Preux, path to beating him is weathering the storm and waiting for him to gas out towards the end of the fight. So match up wise, I think St. Preux can knock Latifi out. So I’m going with OSP by 2nd round KO.
-Mike Perry: Perry is still an elite prospect. He’s got to get better at pacing and not gassing out in the later rounds when he’s not able to knock his opponent out early. But the UFC really likes Perry and this is clearly a bounce back fight on a silver platter for Perry. His opponent Max Griffin is 32 years old. 1-2 in the UFC. Clearly the UFC wants to see Perry knock some one out on FOX and that’s what they’ll get. Perry. 1st round knockout.
-Brian Kelleher: UPSET SPECIAL 2: I just think Renan Barao is done. When champions lose the belt, they’re often never the same. But Barao’s downward spiral has been particularly quick. Since losing the belt, Barao has lost 3 of his last 5 fights, only beating lower tier fighters in Philippe Nover and Mitch Gagnon. Kelleher is 2-1 in the UFC so far. Losing to Marlon Vera, who is pretty good. But also finishing Iuri Alcantara and Damian Stasiak who are both pretty good. Kelleher is on a roll. Barao is probably wondering how much longer he’s going to keep fighting. With there being that much of a difference in confidence, I see Kelleher knocking Barao out in the 2nd.
-Sara McMann: Both fighters are towards the end of their careers. McMann is 37 years old. Marion Reneau is 40. But both still serve as really quality gate keepers. McMann is 5-4 in the UFC. Reneau is 4-2. I think McMann has fought tougher opponents. But I really like McMann in this fight because Reneau is mainly a striker with average take down defense. McMann is still a world class wrestler, so I see McMann taking this fight where she’s most comfortable without much danger from Reneau on the ground. So I this going to McMann by decision win.
-Angela Hill: Now, normally, all things being equal, I would pick the fighter that is 26 years old and still developing over the fighter that’s 33 years old and approaching decline. And I think this is a close fight that could go either way. Maryna Moroz is 3-2 in the UFC. Hill is 2-5 in the UFC, but the record is a bit deceiving considering that Hill has lost to a who’s who of top female 115 lb fighters. Champ Rose Namajunas. Carla Esparza. Tecia Torres. Jessica Andrade. Those are pretty brutal matchups. Hill also picked up a win in between her 2 UFC stints to beat top prospect Livia Souza (who just signed with the UFC) in Invicta. But the reason I’m picking Hill is because of the style matchup. Moroz is a submission specialist. Pretty good grappling, not great wrestling. Hill is way better at wrestling and I think that helps her to keep the fight on the feet where Hill is going to have a striking advantage. Like I said, close fight, could go either way but I’m going with Hill via split decision.
-Alan Jouban: This is clearly a fight the UFC booked to get Jouban back on track. Jouban might be 35 years old, but he’s one of these fighters that started his MMA career pretty late and only has 21 pro fights on his body. So it’s possible he could fight for another 3-5 years. Jouban is 6-4 in the UFC. Lost 2 in a row to two really good opponents in Niko Price and Gunnar Nelson. And has big wins over Mike Perry and Belal Muhammad. Ben Saunders has a 8-5 record in the UFC, but it’s a bit deceiving. For some reason, Saunders has been matched up against either fighters towards the end of their career like Joe Riggs or fighters that get 2 or 3 fights in the UFC and get released. What’s the biggest win in Saunders’ UFC career? A knockout over Marcus Davis back in 2009. Since then, a split decision win over Kenny Robertson who’s gone 4-4 in the UFC. You get the picture. Jouban has better striking than Saunders, so much so that Jouban is going to knock him out in the 2nd.
-Oliver Aubin-Mercier: Interesting fight here. Aubin-Mercier is a world class wrestler with pretty good submission skills. Gilbert Burns is a world class ju-jitsu player with pretty good wrestling skills. Aubin-Mercier has a 6-2 UFC record, 28 years old. Burns is 5-2 in the UFC. 31 years old. So both fighters are somewhat similar. But I give Aubin-Mercier the edge here because the better wrestler can usually dictate where the fight goes. And it’s been proven twice that Burns is not as good submitting fighters off his back when he lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michal Prazeres. So I think the fight stays on the feet a little. Burns has the better striking, Aubin-Mercier takes Burns down. Does enough to keep him on the ground and stay out of danger. And do enough to pick up the decision win.
-Marcin Prachnio: Really tough fight to pick as Sam Alvey has consistently been one of the better gate keepers in the UFC. But now Alvey is moving up to 205 lbs, which is a pretty big jump. He’s only 31 years old, but has a ton of mileage on his body. 41 pro fights. And Prachnio is a very good prospect. In his prime at 29 years old. Only 2 years younger, but has fought 26 times less than Alvey! Prachnio has beaten very good prospects. Matej Batinic. Knocked out Alex Machcado, Jake Butler and Gilberto Galvao. I think this fight is going to come down to whether or not Alvey can dictate where the fight goes. If Alvey can slow Prachnio down. Push him against the fence. Grapple him. Tire him out. But that’s not really Alvey’s strength. His striking is his best asset. And that plays right into the type of fight Prachnio will want. So I’m picking Prachnio by decision, just because Alvey is so tough and durable.
-Rani Yahya: Yayha is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. Probably one the best 9-3 UFC record fighters you’ve never heard of. Still only 33 years old. Yayha only struggles with opponents he can’t take down. like Joe Soto. And this is going to keep him from getting a title shot. But he’s still a very good upper tier gate keeper. And I totally believe he’ll be able to take Russell Doane down. Doane is probably better than his 3-4 UFC record indicates, but this is a terrible style matchup for him as he’s a stand up fighter and doesn’t do well on the ground. This is Yahya all day. 1st round submission.
-Eric Shelton: Shelton might be 1-2 in the UFC so far, but he’s pretty good. His 2 losses came via split decision to two of the better prospects in the 125 lb division. Plus on the Ultimate Fighter, Shelton lost a majority decision to title contender Tim Elliott. Shelton’s 27 years old. Coming into his prime. I think he’s likely to settle in as a mid tier gate keeper. Not impressed with Alex Perez though, even coming off a submission win in his UFC debut. It came against Carls Tomas who’s not good enough for the UFC with where he’s currently at. Perez just doesn’t have a track record of beating quality opponents like Shelton does. And when Perez faces average competition, like Jared Papazian, he loses. He has more developing to do it and might get better being 25 years old, but for now I’m confident in Shelton picking up the decision win.
-Manny Bermudez: Albert Morales doesn’t seem like a bad fighter. 2 of his 3 losses in the UFC came against contenders. He fought rising contender Alejandro Perez to a draw. 26 years old. But how Morales looked in his last fight with Benito Lopez makes me think that Bermudez will find a way to win. Bermudez and Lopez have similar resumes. Same age. Both undefeated. Lopez is more well rounded though. Bermudez more heavy in submissions. I think Morales is lacking confidence. Will have a ton of pressure knowing a UFC loss likely means he’ll be released. And I think Bermudez will have a big enough grappling advantage to dictate where the fight is and will lead him to a decision win.