Dillashaw vs Garbrandt II, Johnson vs Cejudo II, Swanson vs Moicano Fight Picks

-Cody Garbrandt: I say this a lot. History shows whoever wins the first fight almost always wins the second fight. But Garbrandt vs TJ Dillashaw is one of the exceptions. And an exception is especially more likely to take place when the winner of the first fight won by a flash knockout. Junior dos Santos knocked out Cain Velasquez their first fight. Matt Serra knocking out Georges St. Pierre their first fight. I think Garbrandt was too emotional, got too over confident after dropping Dillashaw in the first round. And got caught. Plus, Garbrandt saying he had lingering back issues is legitimate because he did pull out of the first time they tried to make that fight due to his back. And I watched Garbrandt vs Dillashaw, Dillashaw vs Dominick Cruz, and Garbrandt vs Cruz. And Garbrandt is a better striker than Dillashaw. Dillashaw has power, but he’s usually more volume, more technique with Garbrandt having about equal technique but more power. I think a fully healthy Garbrandt rebounds and knocks Dillawshaw out in the 2nd round.

-Demetrious Johnson: I don’t see any path to victory for Henry Cejudo. I know he’s still developing in MMA. But Johnson is better everywhere. Maybe close to an equal in wrestling. Yes, Cejudo’s striking is better. Power is starting to show up. But Johnson will have a big advantage in the striking. And for the vast majority of rematches, whoever wins the first fight, wins the rematch. Similar fight will take place. Johnson will knock Cejudo out in the 2nd round.

-Renato Moicano: In theory, this could be a competitive fight. Moicano’s been using his striking in a lot of his recent fights. Cub Swanson has more power. Could knock Moicano out. But Cub can be out boxed when his opponent is more patient and stays on the outside, similar to what Frankie Edgar did. And unfortunately for Cub, Moicano is even more patient and put on a clinic in his last fight against rising contender Calvin Kattar. But I don’t even think the fight plays out on the feet because the best way to beat Cub is to submit him and that’s actually Moicano’s best tool. I think fight plays out on the feet and because that takes so much of Cub’s focus, Moicano will use that to grapple him to the ground and will catch Cub in a submission. 2nd round.

-Polyana Viana: Really interesting fight between two possible contenders at 115 lbs. JJ Aldrich has been getting a ton better in her past couple fights. 26 years old. Stepping into her prime. But she’s going against a scary, elite prospect in Viana. Very rare that a female fighter at strawweight has all 10 of her wins coming via finish. Viana’s best tool is her Brazilian ju-jitsu. But her stand up game’s been getting better. Aldrich’s best tool is her wrestling and also has better stand up. I think this fight plays out on the feet with Viana catching Aldrich with a KO in the 2nd. Just think Viana’s skills are on another tier.

-Kevin Holland: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Thiago Santos is a very effective gate keeper. Upper tier for sure. Scary knockout power. And has really improved his take down defense. But Holland is an elite prospect. 25 years old. Has knocked out very good competition. And he’s not just a great striker, but he’s patient and techinical, the kind that can frustrate Santos. I think David Branch laid out the perfect blueprint for Holland to follow to knock Santos out. It’s just a question of does he have the skill to execute it and pull the upset. And I think he does and will knock out an overly aggressive Santos in the 1st round.

-Pedro Munhoz: Brett Johns has a gaudy 15-1 pro record that’s been built mostly on being able to out wrestle fighters without much wrestling skill. Johns was exposed a bit in his last fight against Aljamain Sterling due to not being able to take him down and same will happen here. I still think Munhoz eventually gets a title shot at 135 lbs, but at worst, he’s a very good upper tier gate keeper. Johns will run into the same issues with Munhoz. Not being able to take him down. And Munhoz will go to work on the stand up where he’s got a big advantage that leads to a 2nd round knockout.

-Montel Jackson: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Yes, on paper, this fight looks like a mismatch and an easy win for Ricky Simon. Simon has a 13-1 pro record. Jackson’s pro record is 3-0. But I thought the same thing when Jackson fought Rico DiSciullo with a 9-1 pro record and I’m not making that same mistake, to underestimate Jackson, again. DiSciullo and Simon are similar fighters. Solid wrestling. Solid striking. No elite tools. Problem DiSciullo had against Jackson is that Jackson’s wrestling and striking were even better and I think the same will be the case against Simon. And don’t forget that even though the record shows Simon with a submission win in his UFC debut, it was against Merab Dvalishvili, a fighter with a 7-4 record, that Simon was about to lose a decision to, if not for a desparation submission win at the very end of the fight. I think Jackson is too quick here and has better tools and will cruise to a decision win.

-Bethe Correira: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Close fight. I’m going with Correira because I think she’ll out class Irene Aldana on the feet. Correira has fought a who’s who of top bantamweight fighters. Yes, she’s only won 1 out of her last 5 fights. But her overall pro record is 10-3. She’s still a solid upper tier gate keeper. And it’s not like Aldana is some great prospect. She’s 30 years old and has lost to Tonya Evinger and Leslie Smith. I just don’t see how she fares any better against Correira. Correira by decision.

-Matt Sayles: I’ll admit this is a shaky pick. One of my favorite fights on the card. Sayles and Sheymon Moraes are two very good prospects where I think both have a chance, not a guarantee, but at least a chance to become title contenders. So whoever wins this fight, it’ll be very good for their career. Sayles really opened my eyes in his last fight Yazan Hajeh. His striking is quick, technical, and has power. Moraes is actually a pretty similar fighter. But I’m giving Sayles the edge in that 6 of his 7 wins have come by knockout whereas Moraes only has 5 knockouts in 9 wins. Plus, Moraes is coming off a bad loss and I think the confidence edge is in Sayles favor too. I’ll go Sayles by decision.

-Jose Torres: UPSET SPECIAL 4: If Torres was able to keep the fight on the feet (for the most part) against Jarred Brooks, I have no doubt he’ll be able to do the same with Alex Perez, who does have pretty good wrestling, but not near the level of Brooks. Torres is widely considered the #1 prospect at 125 lbs. He’s good everywhere. And in this fight, he’s going to want to trade strikes with Perez where he has the biggest advantage and I think leads to a 2nd round knockout.

-Ricardo Ramos: Ramos is a really good prospect. 22 years old. But what’s most encouraging about him is how he’s developing his striking game. 6 of Ramos’ 11 wins have come via submission. Only 3 knockouts. But in his last UFC fight against a striker in Aiemann Zahabi, Ramos actually out struck him. Kyung Ho Kang is OK. But his 3-1 UFC record is misleading due to all 3 fighters he has wins over have been released. Kang has decent wrestling. Mostly a submission fighter. I think Ramos’ grappling is about on par with Kang’s and the fight will stay on the feet where I think Ramos will be good enough to take the decision win.

-Weili Zhang: Truth be told, Danielle Taylor is pretty good, but should be fighting at 105 lbs, not 115 lbs. But unfortunately, the UFC doesn’t have a 105 lb weight division yet. So it’s bad for Taylor because her best skill is her wrestling, but it’s hard to utilize that against much bigger fighters. Zhang is a near elite prospect at 115 lbs. 16-1 pro record. And she has a few very impressive wins outside the UFC finishing some solid prospects. She has a chance to be a star. Zhang is well rounded. And because of her size advantage and decent wrestling, will be able to keep the fight on the feet. And will knock Taylor out in the 2nd round.

-Marlon Vera: Not sure why Wuliji Buren is in the UFC. He’s got a 9-4 pro record. Lost in his debut to Rolando Dy, who has a 9-7 record. Yes, Vera doesn’t have a great pro record at 10-5 either, but there’s a vast difference in quality of competition and wins. Vera’s mostly known for his submissions, but I think he takes the path of least resistance. Buren is a grappler. Vera will have a big advantage on the feet. And Vera will easily dispatch Buren in the 1st round via the knockout.

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