-Derrick Lewis: UPSET SPECIAL 1: To be transparent, this pick is largely influenced by the odds and who I would bet on. And I see Daniel Cormier at -700, -800 and there’s just no way I’d lay that type of money on Cormier winning the fight. Because Lewis absolutely has a real, puncher’s chance to win. Yes, more than likely, Cormier will win. And it’s even possible Cormier takes Lewis down and pummels him on the ground to win in the 1st round. But there are question marks for me. First is Lewis’ size advantage. Lewis will be so much bigger. Will Cormier have problems taking Lewis down? And what if Lewis catches Cormier in the 1st round? I still remember Cormier fighting Anthony Johnson the 1st time. And Johnson caught Cormier and almost knocked him out. I just wonder if it’s possible for Lewis to do the same. Is it possible Cormier thinks Lewis is an easy fight? Is it possible Cormier’s hand is worse than he’s letting known publicly. For all these reasons, I think yeah, Lewis does have a real shot at winning the fight. It’s still more likely Cormier takes Lewis down and the fight is over. But there’s just no way I’d pick him at -700. So because of that, I’m picking a 2nd round Lewis knockout.
-Chris Weidman: Confidence wise, got to give the advantage to Weidman. Jacare Souza is coming off a loss to Kelvin Gastelum. Weidman’s last fight was a submission win over Gastelum. However, Weidman hasn’t fought in a year and a half. It’s an interesting fight. Two ground specialists who have been able to grow leaps and bounds in their striking. I see the fight playing out on the feet. Maybe Jacare has a slight advantage. But the big reason I’m picking Weidman is because I think his wrestling will be the difference. Like, maybe Weidman beats Jacare on the feet. But even if he doesn’t I think he can take Jacare down and that his wrestling and top game are good enough to stay out of Jacare’s submissions to pick up the win via decision.
-Jared Cannonier: UPSET SPECIAL 2: I question how healthy Cannonier’s weight cut is going to be given that he’s so big, he debuted in the UFC at heavyweight, now making his middleweight debut. But he did have a fight coming up later in November and he got moved to fight Branch, so we’ll see. But assuming his weight cut goes well, I see an upset happening here. Yes, David Branch did upset Thiago Santos and knock him out. But I think that was a fluke. There’s no other fight in Branch’s career that says he can duplicate what he did. I just think Santos gave Branch’s stand up zero respect. I just don’t see Branch able to replicate the stand up success. Cannonier is going to out strike Branch and will have the take down defense to keep the fight on the feet. I’m actually going to pick a Cannonier knockout in the 2nd round.
-Karl Roberson: Roberson is a fighter that shows a ton of talent and potential. Only 7 pro fights. 2-1 in the UFC. Roberson reminds me a lot of Thiago Santos, who, ironically, knocked out Jack Marshman just last year. Marshman is mostly a striker, above average, but he can be out struck. I see this fight going fast and furious and ending with a 1st round Roberson knockout.
-Israel Adesanya: Derek Brunson is one of the most aggressive fighters in the UFC. 8 of his last 9 fights have ended in the 1st round. But for all of his impressive 1st round knockouts, he’s still lost 3 out of his last 5 fights. And it’s because there’s holes in his striking. Adesanya is mostly a counter puncher, so this is a very good matchup for him. I see Adesanya staying patient, and staying out of Brunson’s reach. And landing the counter knockout punch in the 2nd round.
-Jason Knight: Not sure who Knight is anymore. Just last year, Knight was 4-1 in the UFC, 25 years old and looked like a future contender. Now, he’s lost 3 fights in a row. Jordan Rinaldi is a solid bounce back opponent for Knight because not only does Rinaldi have a 13-6 pro record and 1-2 UFC record, stylistically, he’s very similar to Knight, except Knight’s skills are better everywhere. I think Knight’s biggest advantage will be on the feet and expect most of the fight to take place there where Knight will out point Rinaldi for the decision win.
-Sijara Eubanks: I see it time and time again. Vast majority of rematches in the UFC, whoever won the first fight, wins the rematch. I expect that trend to continue here. And Roxy Modafferi has had a career renaissance, with her improving her wrestling and ground and pound. But Modafferi will again fail to take Eubanks down. Fight will play out on the feet. And Eubanks this time is going to knock Modafferi out in the 2nd round.
-Julio Arce: Really good fight between two potential contenders at 145 lbs. When the UFC signed Arce, he looked to me like an average, one-dimensional prospect who relied on his wrestling too much. But in his first three UFC fights, he’s really impressed me in rounding out his game, even picking up a knockout on the Contender Series. Sheymon Moraes has plus striking, but he does have a sizable flaw on the ground and that happens to be where Arce excels the most. I see Arce being able to take Moraes down and submitting him in the 2nd round.
-Lyman Good: Not sure how far Good can get in the UFC. The fact that he lost a close split decision to rising contender Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos shows he could have potential. But one thing I do know for sure is Good won’t have any problems dispatching opponent Ben Saunders, who’s taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. Saunders has been a durable lower tier gate keeper for a lot of years, but in the last few fights, his chin is starting to give out. I see Good blitzing Saunders and knocking him out in the 1st round.
-Lando Vannata: Vannata might have a 1-3 UFC record, but he’s had some tough luck. Losing to Tony Ferguson in his UFC debut and possible contenders in David Teymur and Drakkar Klose. He even fought Bobby Green to a draw in a fight that I thought Vannata won. He takes on Matt Frevola who’s mostly a grappler. Average prospect. Got knocked out by Marco Reyes in his UFC debut. I just don’t see a pathway for Frevola to win. I don’t see his grappling being any better than Vannata’s. And on the feet, Vannata will have a huge advantage. So I’m going with a Vannata 2nd round knockout.
-Shane Burgos: Easy fight. UFC booked this because they believe in Burgos and wanted to give him a soft bounce back fight after his first career loss, which was also a knockout. Kurt Holobaugh’s best skill is his grappling, but Burgos will have the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet and knock Holobaugh out in the 1st round.
-Brian Kelleher: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Too much, too soon for Montel Jackson. Jackson’s got a 6-1 pro record. 26 years old. Coming off a loss to Ricky Simon and the UFC actually gives Jackson a step up in competition. Probably says more about what they think of him and that they just needed an opponent for Kelleher. I don’t see a problem for Kelleher here. Jackson is pretty one dimensional at this point. A striker. Kelleher is very well rounded and will probably take the path of least resistance. Grapple with Jackson. Take him down. And will likely submit him in the 2nd round.
-Adam Wieczorek: Wieczorek takes this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. But I still see him winning this fight pretty easily. His opponent is Marcos Pezao who’s making his heavyweight debut. Sometimes, moving up in weight is good. A fighter can be more healthy, have better cardio not being effected by a brutal weight cut. But heavyweight is where these things apply the least. Because of the gap between 205 lbs and 265 lbs. Pezao is moving up from light heavyweight to heavyweight, but he’s still going to be a much smaller fighter against Wieczorek, who’s about 240 lbs. Using this size advantage, Wieczorek will be able to grapple Pezao to the ground and submit him in the 1st round.