-Kevin Lee: Al Iaquinta is really, really under rated. I think he’s in the top 5 or top 7 of best lightweights in the division. If you count his fights on the Ultimate Fighter, he’s 12-3 in the UFC. He’s improved a lot the past few years. Took on Khabib on 1 day’s notice and didn’t look horrible. Khabib won, but it wasn’t the usual domination we see from Khabib fights. In Iaquinta’s first fight with Lee, he was able to use his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet and out struck Lee to win. But 4 years later, Lee’s striking has gotten amazingly better. In my opinion, Lee would’ve beaten Tony Ferguson if he didn’t fight with staph and gas out. He nearly knocked Ferguson out in the 1st round. That’s how much better his striking has gotten. This is going to be a stand up fight. But this time, it’s going to be Lee who wins the striking exchanges. I think Lee is going to knock Iaquinta down and then jump on a submission. 3rd round.
-Dan Hooker: 2 surprising facts in this fight. 1) This is Edson Barboza’s 20th UFC fight. Crazy how time passes by. He’s 13-6 in the UFC. That’s a lot of mileage and damage on his body. Especially the damage he’s taken in his last 2 fights against Khabib and Kevin Lee. 2) Dan Hooker is well rounded. His pro record is 17-7. 9 wins by knockout. 7 by submission. You might think, oh, he probably got all those submissions against cans outside the UFC. Nope. Hooker is 7-3 in the octagon and 2 of his 7 wins have been by submission. Hooker is really big for 155 lbs. Not sure he can out strike Barboza, but I’m confident he’ll be able to grab Barboza and out grapple him. Hooker goes to the path of least resistance and submits Barboza in the 2nd round.
-Rob Font: Very interesting fight in that Sergio Pettis is at a cross roads. He started his UFC career at 135 lbs. Went 3-2. Was the smaller guy. Which was an issue for him because he’s a volume striker with not much power. He got out grappled by a bigger Alex Caceres and knocked out by Ryan Benoit. Then he cut down to 125 lbs and went 5-2. He got outwrestled by champ Henry Cejudo and out grappled by #1 contender Jussier Formiga. Not much to be ashamed about. He now moves back up to 135 lbs. He’s still 25 years old. Still developing and it is possible he figures out how to tap into more power. But Pettis is going to run into the same problems in this fight that he did with Benoit. Font has way more power. And based on their styles and skills, this fight will play out on the feet. And Pettis might score more punches on Font by being faster and more technical. But Font is eventually going to find Pettis’ chin and it’ll be game over. Font by knockout in the 2nd round.
-Charles Oliveira: I just don’t believe that Jim Miller is back. Yes, he looked great finishing Alex White, but White isn’t that good. Yes, the 4 losses in a row Miller had were against very good opponents. But he’s 35 years old with 41 pro fights. That’s a ton of miles on his body. And Oliveira is another one these really good opponents that Miller has been losing to lately. Stylistically, I see Oliveira, who’s still in his prime at 29 years old, being able to grab Miller and out grapple him. I even see Oliveira picking up the submission win in the 2nd round.
-Dwight Grant: Grant is going to have an easy time here. Grant has plus striking. 8-1 pro record. Zak Ottow has average wrestling with above average submissions. But he hasn’t improved his take downs. And has shown that he can’t even take down strikers like Li Jingliang and Sage Northcutt. He’s not going to be able to take Grant down either and Grant is going to knock him out in the 1st round.
-Andrea Lee: Pretty good fight here. And I think this is the time to see who Jessica-Rose Clark really is. Pro record is 9-5. She’s 2-1 in the UFC. She’s best known for beating Paige Vanzant. But I’m skeptical of the win, because I don’t think Clark would’ve been able to get it done had Vanzant not broke her arm in the fight. She barely beat Bec Rawlings. I just don’t think she’s that good. She’s well rounded, but has no plus tools. Her striking is her best skill and it’s average. Lee has way more upside. She’s also well rounded, but has better skills than Clark everywhere. I see the fight playing out on the feet and Lee clearly outpointing Clark to pick up the decision win.
-Bobby Green: UPSET SPECIAL 1: I like Drakkar Klose. He’s started his UFC career with a 3-1 record. He’s got above average wrestling and average striking. Those are is best tools. 30 years old. And maybe possible that he’s still developing and we could see an improved version in this fight. But I’m picking Green based on what Klose has done so far. Which is that he wins fights where he can grab his opponent. Push him against the fence. Take him down. But then he fought David Teymur, who had enough take down defense to keep the fight on the feet and Teymur easily won the decision. Green is 32 years old. A solid mid tier gate keeper. Well rounded. And has plus take down defense. He’s even known for stopping the take downs of Jacob Volkmann and Pat Healy when they were in their primes. Green will stuff the take downs and out point Klose to cruise to a decision win.
-Jared Gordon: This should be a close fight. Joaquim Silva has shown that he can beat high level grapplers. But Gordon’s take downs are more potent than those of Reza Madadi or Andrew Holbrook. Gordon has plus wrestling and decent stand up. Silva probably does have better stand up, but because I see Gordon being able to take Silva down, I have Gordon winning by decision.
-Gerald Meerschaert: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Very interesting, very close fight here. This is one of the fights on this card I’m more excited about. Both Meerschaert and Jack Hermansson I think are potential dark horses to become title contenders. Now, Hermansson is well known for his top game. He’s had success taking guys down and pounding them out on the ground. But the fighters he’s beaten in the UFC didn’t have very good take down defense or grappling. I think Cezar Ferreira provided a good litmus test for how good Hermansson’s grappling and wrestling is and Ferreira submitted Hermansson. But Hermansson still has a 4-2 record. Meerschaert though really opened my eyes in his last fight, upsetting elite prospect Oskar Piechota. Meerschaert gets better every fight. 30 years old. His striking has gotten way better. And stylistically in this fight, I think Meerschaert actually takes Hermansson down. And submits him in the 2nd round.
-Dan Ige: I’m not really that impressed with Jordan Griffin’s resume. 17-5 pro record. Only has 1 win over quality competition and that was his last fight where he broke out and submitted Maurice Mitchell on the Contender Series. Other than that, he’s one of those guys that beats up cans and loses when he gets a step up in competition. Ige is solid prospect that might be able to do something in the division. He’s well rounded. Got out struck by Julio Arce in his debut. Came back in his next fight with his hands looking even better knocking out Mike Santiago in less than a minute. Griffin is mostly a grappler. His stand up is okay, but Ige’s going to have the advantage there if Griffin can’t get it on the ground. I don’t think he will and I like Ige to win by decision.
-Adam Milstead: Even though Milstead lost his last fight, he really impressed me because it was a close, split decision lost to undefeated top prospect Jordan Johnson. Milstead also has a win over UFC heavyweight Chris de la Rocha. Milstead is primarily a striker but showed much improved grappling by being able to hang with Johnson. He takes on Mike Rodriguez, who’s a below average prospect. Striker. And I’m confident to say Milstead is better than Rodriguez everywhere. Path of least resistance would be to take Rodriguez down. I think Milstead does that and cruises to a decision win.
Zak Cummings: Cummings is one of the more under rated fighters in the UFC. He’s quietly compiled a 6-3 record in the UFC. Is 34 years old though. He’s moving back up to 185 lbs. Probably a good move. Body is getting older, harder to cut weight. Cummings takes on 37 year old Trevor Smith. He’s been a decent lower tier gate keeper with a 5-5 UFC record. I think Cummings’ and Smith’s grappling cancel each other out. Fight stays on the feet. And Cummings knocks Smith out in the 2nd round.
-Juan Adams: Adams has star potential because of his striking technique, speed and power. He’s only had four pro fights though. All four have been 1st round knockouts. So there are questions about how well rounded he is, how good his cardio is, etc. But the UFC wants to make sure he has as smooth a debut as possible by matching him up with Chris de la Rocha. 1-2 in the UFC. 39 years old. Average to below average tools, but he’s decently well rounded. I don’t see de la Rocha being able to take Adams down and it’ll be another Adams 1st round knockout.