-Marlon Moraes: Yes, it’s true that just a year and a half ago Rafael Assuncao did beat Moraes. And normally, I pick the fighter who won the first fight in the rematch. But it was a split decision win. Also, Moraes has gotten a lot, a lot better in the past year. He’s also knocked two of the best wrestlers in the division in Jimmie Rivera and Aljamain Sterling. I see Moraes having the same exact strategy. Blitz Assuncao and go for broke before Assuncao is able to slow the fight down and grapple him. I think same thing happens here and Moraes has his 3rd first round knockout in a row.
-Renato Moicano: Coin flip fight. Really could go either way. Moicano’s known for his grappling and submissions, but in the past few years has become a legit contender because of how improved his striking has become. He’s more of a volume puncher and goes with a higher pace. 0 knockouts in his career. Aldo is one of the toughest types of match ups for Moicano. Because Aldo has the best take down defense in the division. This fight is definitely going to play out on the feet. And I definitely could see Aldo knocking Moicano out. But I’m going to roll the dice and pick Moicano because I think he knows Aldo’s biggest weakness is his cardio and Moicano is going to strike at break neck speed. He’s going to land a ton. So I think Moicano out points Aldo for a close split decision win.
-Demian Maia: Not much to see here. Even though Maia is 41 years old and coming off 3 losses, the type of skills he has ages well. He lost to 3 of the best wrestlers at 170 lbs that were able to resist his world class grappling. Lyman Good has a 2-1 record in the UFC so far. Lost a close fight to rising contender Elizeu Zaleski. Knocked out Andrew Craig and Ben Saunders. Good’s best tool is his striking. Wrestling is average. I expect this fight to be over quick. Maia will grab Good. Take him down. And submit him in the 1st round.
-David Teymur: Teymur has started his UFC career 5-0. 2 knockouts. Only real flaw in his game to this point has been a lack of knockout power. He’s more of a volume puncher, as of now. Charles Oliveira is well known for having the most submission wins in UFC history. But I see Teymur winning this fight by being able to keep Oliveira at length and not allowing him to grab on. Teymur’s gone against two very good wrestlers in Drakkar Klose and Nik Lentz and passed with flying colors. No take downs. I see the fight playing out on the feet. Teymur uses his speed and technical striking to win by another decision.
-Johnny Walker: Stylistically, things look good in this fight for Justin Ledet. His best tool is grappling. And Walker has never beaten a high level grappler. However, Ledet’s grappling is average. His wrestling is close to average, but not quite there. Ledet has a 3-1 record in the UFC, but his wins haven’t been that impressive. Walker seems like he could be an elite prospect with contender potential, but he does have questions to answer on how well rounded he really is. But if Walker can blitz and knockout a striker the caliber of Khalil Rountree, on short notice, he’s going to have zero problems with Ledet. Another 1st round knockout for Walker.
-Livinha Souza: Grappler vs grappler fight. Souza is a highly touted prospect. 27 years old. Won her UFC debut. She takes on Sarah Frota, who’d I’d rate as an above average prospect. Interesting part of this fight is that the grappling probably cancels itself out here. Fight probably plays out on the feet. And the striking for both fighters has improved a lot the past couple years. But I’d give Souza an experience advantage. Not having the jitters. And I think her stand up is slightly better. Close fight, but I’ll go with Souza by decision.
-Anthony Hernandez: Two really good prospects here, although, some of the shine has probably worn off of Markus Perez. Beat Ian Heinisch outside the UFC. He lost a close fight to Eryk Anders on short notice. No harm done. But I expected more in his fight with Andrew Sanchez. Perez wasn’t able to take Sanchez down and had no answer for the striking. And I think same happens here in this fight with Hernandez. Hernandez is 25 years old. 7-0. Has 4 submission wins, compared to 2 knockouts so it might seem like he’s more of a grappler, but the submissions are due to guillotine chokes. So it’s possible his striking is just as good. Either case, Perez’s best tool is his grappling. So the choke isn’t likely to be there. More likely is that Hernandez is a better version in this fight than the last and he out strikes Perez to win by decision.
-Mara Borella: UPSET SPECIAL: Taila Santos looks like an elite prospect. 15-0 pro record. 25 years old. But I’m skeptical because her record is padded. 14 of her 15 wins have come against the lowest of the low of tomato cans. Her only legit win came on the Contender Series against a 7-1 fighter. Decision win. 10 of Santos 15 wins have come by knockout, but again, they were against really bad cans. Now she takes on Borella who has big time knockout power. And her stand up has gotten way better the past couple years. Santos will try and stand with Borella. And it’s possible Santos lands more. But Borella has the fight ending tool and I see her knocking Santos out in the 2nd round.
-Max Griffin: Griffin’s record in the UFC is 2-3, however his 3 losses came against Colby Covington, Curtis Millender, and Elizeu Zaleski. And Griffin out striking Mike Perry does look good. Griffin takes on former contender Thiago Alves. Alves has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and he doesn’t have a win over a real quality opponent since 2010. I don’t think Griffin has the upside of a contender. His ceiling is probably a mid tier gate keeper. But Griffin is going to be good enough to out point Alves for the decision win.
-Junior Albini: Despite his 1-2 UFC record, Albini is one of the better heavyweight prospects. He’s very well rounded and fast for his size. He takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik who’s got a 5-0 pro record and pretty green. He beat up 4 tomato cans before his last fight, a split decision win over a 9-0 fighter. Stylistically, this should be an easy fight for Albini. Rozenstruik is a pure striker. Has below average grappling and ground game. I see Albini taking Rozenstruik down and submitting him in the 1st round.
-Geraldo de Freitas: The word that comes to mind when seeing de Freitas’ resume is inconsistent. He’s got an 11-4 pro record. Which is not great compared to most of the fighters the UFC signs. And when I first started looking at him, I thought, okay, this is the best the UFC could do, finding an opponent for Felipe Corales on a week’s notice. But de Freitas has beaten some pretty good prospects. Tools wise, he’s well rounded and has finishes in 9 of his 11 wins. But he does have 4 losses and 3 of the 4 fighters are not that great. So who knows which de Freitas we get in this fight. But I’m picking him because Corales is green. Corales biggest win is over a fighter with a 5-1 pro record. Corales is 24 years old. 8-0 pro record. And is mainly a grappler. I see de Freitas being able to keep the fight on the feet and having a really big striking advantage. I’ll go with de Freitas by 2nd round knockout.
-Said Nurmagomedov: Both of these fighters are pretty one dimensional. Nurmagomedov has plus wrestling and that’s his main tool. Ricardo Ramos has close to plus grappling, although his striking is getting better and I’d say is now close to average. Ramos is really young at 23 years old. Nurmagomedov is 26 years old. Difference in this fight is going to be Nurmagomedov’s wrestling which will control where the fight takes place. Said will be good enough in the stand up to hang with Ramos but will mix in take downs and do enough on the ground to cruise to a decision win.
-Magomed Bibulatov: Really good fight between two potential contenders at 125 lbs. Rogerio Bontorin is making his UFC debut. Elite prospect. 26 years old. 14-1 pro record. Has plus grappling. Back in 2017, Bontorin had a set back loss to UFC vet Michinori Tanaka. At the time, I thought that was a good litmus test to show where he was at and that maybe his record was a little padded. As most of his wins came over cans. Then the UFC brought Bontorin into the Contender Series to fight 24 year old Gustavo Gabriel Silva who had a 13-0 record. Well, Bontorin bounced back and submitted Silva in the 2nd round. Really impressive win. But he takes on Bibulatov who’s also 14-1. 1-1 UFC record. Got upset in his last fight, being knocked out by contender John Moraga. But Bibulatov does have a win outside the UFC over #12 ranked Said Nurmagomedov. Bibulatov has plus wrestling. So what I think happens here is Bibulatov is able to take Bontorin down and also has the grappling chops to defend against Bontorin’s submissions. Bibulatov will do enough ground and pound to win by decision.