-Jairzinho Rozenstruik: Rozenstruik reminds me a ton of Francis Ngannou. Rozenstruik is 31 years old. 9-0 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC so far. The quick knockouts over Junior Albini and Allen Crowder were impressive, but both of those guys are average UFC heavyweights. Andrei Arlovski was supposed to give Rozenstruik a bigger test, yet Rozenstruik did the exact same thing, knocking Arlovski out in 29 seconds. Ngannou to me has acquitted himself on the question of take down defense. To me, the Ngannou vs Curtis Blaydes fight was his breakthrough. But where’s Rozenstruik’s wrestling at? Too soon to tell. As of now, I grade his striking at plus plus because there’s only been 2 other heavyweights that have knocked Arlovski out that quick. Stipe Miocic and Ngannou. Alistair Overeem remains the premier upper tier gate keeper in the UFC. 39 years old. Yet, he’s gone on the best stretch in his career the past 5 years going 8-3, only losing to the best 3 of the best 4 heavyweights in the division. Miocic, Ngannou, and Blaydes. 6 of the 8 wins have been knockouts. His biggest wins were over Junior dos Santos, Mark Hunt, and Fabricio Werdum. Overeem’s striking is near plus plus, but not quite there as his chin isn’t what it used to be and he can be knocked out. Overeem also has average wrestling and submissions. Overeem’s best chance of winning this fight? Trying to take Rozenstruik down? Will he do it? Will he have a chance to do it? I think not. I think this yet another quick 1st round knockout for Rozenstruik.
-Cynthia Calvillo: Styles make fights. Rodriguez is 32 years old. 12-0-1 pro record. 3-0-1 in the UFC. She fought wrestler Randa Markos to a draw. Has wins over Jessica Aguilar and Tecia Torres. And knocked out a 10-3 striker. Striking is plus but she only has average power. Rodriguez also has average wrestling. Calvillo is also 32 years old. 5-1 UFC record. Only loss was against Carla Esparza because Calvillo couldn’t take Esparza down and Esparza out struck her. What’s interesting about Calvillo is she has some big wins, even before signing with the UFC. She beat Aspen Ladd in Ladd’s 3rd fight. Calvillo also out grappled Gillian Robertson and knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Calvillo’s UFC wins include beating Joanne Calderwood, Cortney Casey, and submitting Poliana Botelho. Her grappling is plus. And the striking has improved to being average. This fight is all about whether Calvillo can get the fight on the ground. I think Calvillo’s experience here will also be a big factor. I see Calvillo getting the take downs and eventually getting the submission win by the 2nd round.
-Stefan Struve: This is such a hard fight to pick. Ben Rothwell is 38 years old. 6-6 in the UFC. Has lost 3 in a row, including getting out struck by Andrei Arlovski in his last fight. Then before that, he lost to Blagoy Ivanov and 3 years prior, lost to Junior dos Santos. So it’s hard to get a really good gauge on where his skills are at because of that layoff and him being 38 years old now. He was on one of the best runs of his career before, winning 4 in a row with finishes in all of them, including Alistair Overeem and Matt Mitrione. But that 4 fight win streak happened back between 2013-2016. So currently, I think Rothwell’s striking has regressed to average. But I do think his wrestling and grappling are above average. And I feel like Struve’s career could be going in the opposite direction. Maybe. This is the guy who debuted as a heavyweight at 21 years old. Super rare thing. So even though he has a 13-9 UFC record, 22 fights, he’s still only 31 years old. But most encouraging was how he looked in his last fight. I think Marcos Rogerio de Lima is going to be successful at heavyweight in the UFC. But Struve looked great in submitting him by the 2nd round. Struve has above average striking and above average grappling. This is probably going to be a close fight, but I think right now, Struve has the better striking and that will make the difference in him winning by decision.
-Aspen Ladd: Ladd is 24 years old. Technically, she’s 3-1 in the UFC, but also has a 2nd win over Sijara Eubanks in Invicta. Germaine de Randamie knocked her out in her last fight. Ladd’s first career pro loss. 8-1 pro record. Besides the GDR fight, Ladd has been dominant. She’s got TKO ground and pound wins over Tonya Evinger and Lina Lansberg. Ladd’s wrestling is an easy plus with the upside of plus plus. Her striking is above average paired with below average power. Yana Kunitskaya is 30 years old. 12-4 pro record. She’s technically 2-1 in the UFC, but she has a win over Yanan Wu and a loss to Tonya Evinger outside the UFC. In the UFC, she got knocked out by Cris Cyborg, but also has a couple decent wins beating Lina Lansberg and Marion Reneau. Kunitskaya has above average striking paired with below average power. On the feet, this is a close fight. But I think Ladd is going to be able to take Kunitskaya down, just like Evinger was able to. I think this is a standard Ladd ground and pound TKO win. 1st round.
-Yadong Song: Cody Stamann is 30 years old. 4-1 UFC record. Got out grappled and submitted by Aljamain Sterling. But he has split decision wins over Tom Duquesnoy, Bryan Caraway and a unanimous decision over Alejandro Perez. Stamann has above average wrestling. Also has above average striking paired with below average power. Yadong is 21 years old. One of the youngest fighters on the UFC roster. Amazingly, he already has a 4-0 UFC record. His knockout over vet Felipe Arantes was pretty good. The win over Vince Morales was a little shaky where he won the standup fight, but barely. But he really broke out by knocking out Alejandro Perez. It’s that fight that showed me that Yadong now has plus striking. And he also has average wrestling. Is Stamann’s wrestling better than Yadong’s? Probably. But is it good enough to be able to take Yadong down and keep him there the majority of the fight? I’m convinced that the answer is no. Maybe Stamann gets a couple take downs, but at some point in the fight when they’re striking, Yadong is going to catch him and knock him out. 2nd round.
-Ricky Simon: This fight is going to be won or lost based on Rob Font’s wrestling. Font is 32 years old. 6-3 in the UFC. Has only lost to top 5 fighters. John Lineker. Pedro Munhoz. Raphael Assuncao. Lineker squeaked by with a decision win with slightly better striking. But it’s been proven that Font can be out grappled. 5 of Font’s 6 wins have been finishes. He has 16 career wins. 7 knockouts. 4 of those 7 knockouts have happened in Font’s last 6 wins. So his striking has been improving. His wins include quality guys in Matt Schnell, Douglas Silva de Andrade, Thomas Almeida, and Sergio Pettis. Font has easy plus striking, average wrestling, and an average submission game. Simon is 27 years old. 15-2 pro record. 4-1 UFC record. His one loss was getting blitzed and knocked out by Urijah Faber in less than a minute. Simon’s wins include a split decision over a 6-2 grappler. Submitting Merab Dvalishvili at the very end of the fight. And beating Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya. From what I could see Simon’s wrestling, especially in the Yayha fight, took a step forward. His wrestling is plus. He also has above average striking paired with below average power. This fight is super simple. If Simon can take Font down, he wins. If he can’t, Font is going to knock him out. But I’m picking Simon because I do think the take downs will be there and he’ll do enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Tim Means: Thiago Alves’ last meaningful win was back in 2015 when he knocked out Jordan Mein. Since then, Alves has lost 5 of his last 7 fights. And one of those wins, a decision win over Max Griffin, I thought Alves lost. The other win was a decision over Patrick Cote. Alves is now 36 years old. I think Alves striking has regressed to being average. Means is still a relevant fighter. 35 years old. 10-8 UFC record. That’s a successful lower tier gate keeper. He loses to top guys. His biggest wins have been over Dhiego Lima, John Howard, and Alex Garcia. Means has above average striking paired with plus power. I see no path for Alves to win here. Stand up fight. I’m picking Means to knock Alves out in the 2nd round.
-Chris Fishgold: Fishgold came into the UFC as a top prospect but unfortunately 2 of his first 3 opponents were contender Calvin Kattar and potential contender Makwan Amirkhani. 27 years old. 18-3 pro record. Submitted Daniel Teymur in his other UFC fight. Also, Fishgold submitted a 6-2 grappler. Knocked out former UFC fighter Marcin Wrzosek, who has a 6-1 record at the time. And he submitted a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Fishgold’s grappling is near plus. Billy Quarantillo is 30 years old. 12-2 pro record. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his UFC debut. Quarantillo lost to a wrestler due to take downs and got knocked out by UFC fighter Michel Quinones. But he improved his grappling and take downs. Knocked out a 5-1 wrestler. And knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Quarantillo is well rounded himself, but his above average striking is a little ahead of his average grappling. Does Quarantillo have the take down defense to stop Fishgold from getting the fight on the ground? I don’t think so. I’m picking Fishgold by 2nd round submission.
-Matt Sayles: Mitchell is 25 years old. 11-0 pro record, except he did lose to Brad Katona on TUF, technically an exhibition bout. 3-1 in the UFC counting the TUF fights. Mitchell has a win over Bobby Moffett. Also has a win over a well rounded 8-0 fighter. And a majority decision win over a wrestler. Katona, who’s also a wrestler, was the only one to beat Mitchell. I grade Mitchell as having above average grappling. Matt Sayles is also 25 years old. 8-2 pro record. 2-1 in the UFC. Got out struck by Sheymon Moraes. But he knocked out a 6-1 striker and submitted Kyle Nelson, his first career submission. Sayles only other loss was a split decision loss to a 9-2 wrestler. Sayles also knocked out a 5-1 grappler and knocked out a 7-2 striker. My knee jerk reaction when looking at this fight was to say styles make fights, the grappler should take down the striker and win. But upon further evaluation, Sayles has wrestling. Plus his submission game is improving as he submitted a well rounded fighter in Nelson. Sayles has above average striking, average wrestling and a near average submission game. I’m now convinced Sayles will have the take down defense to keep the fight on the feet. And that’s going to spell trouble for Mitchell. I’m picking Sayles by 2nd round knockout.
-Joe Solecki: Boy was I wrong in that James Wallace vs Solecki fight. Solecki is 26 years old. 8-2 pro record. 7 of Solecki’s wins were over cans. Wallace is a very good grappler and beat some better guys so to me, it looked like Wallace would out grapple him. But instead, Solecki submitted Wallace in under 4 minutes. Because of that, I now grade Solecki as having above average grappling. Matt Wiman is 36 years old. Retired in 2014, but returned to fight Luis Pena this past June. And Pena dominated the fight, finally knocking Wiman out in the 3rd round. Wiman has a 10-6 UFC record on his resume, but in terms of where his skills are now, his striking is now average and his grappling is average. Solecki has the best tool in the fight. His grappling. And it’s possible it’s better than above average, but he’s only beat 1 guy I wouldn’t consider a can. I’m not going to doubt Solecki this time. I think he’s going to eventually get Wiman down and will submit him by the 2nd round.
-Livinha Souza: Souza is 28 years old. 2-1 in the UFC so far. Lost to Brianna van Buren. No shame there, she’s good. And Souza has a split decision win over top prospect Sarah Frota. Outside the UFC, she got a submission win over a 10-1 grappler. Knocked out an 8-0 striker. Knocked out a 14-1 grappler. Beat a 9-1 striker. Impressive resume. Souza has above average grappling. And she’s also improved her striking enough to where I’d grade it as above average as well. Virna Jandiroba is 31 years old. 14-1 pro record. Lost her UFC debut against Carla Esparza. No shame. Jandiroba has a split decision win over a 7-2 grappler. A submission win over a well rounded 8-2 fighter. A split decision win over Mizuki Inoue. And a submission win over a 10-2 striker. Jandiroba has above average grappling. This fight is pretty simple to pick. The grappling cancels itself out. Jandiroba will want to get the fight on the ground and she won’t be able to take Souza down. Souza will have a monster advantage on the feet. Because of that, Souza cruises to a decision win.
-Makhmud Muradov: I was impressed with Muradov’s UFC debut. 29 years old. 23-6 pro record. Took on Alessio Di Chirico, stuffed the take downs and out struck him to win by decision. 5 of Muradov’s 6 losses happened 5+ years ago. He lost to grapplers and a wrestler. His last loss that happened 3 years ago was from getting a clavicle injury. He rematched the same 6-3 striker and knocked him out. Muradov also knocked out a well rounded 9-2 fighter and knocked out another well rounded 13-3 fighter. Muradov has above average striking and average wrestling. Trevor Smith has been in the UFC since 2013. 38 years old. 5-6 UFC record. All 6 of his losses came against gate keepers. 4 of Smith’s 5 wins came over fighters who didn’t last long in the UFC. Smith’s biggest win was over Chris Camozzi. Smith doesn’t have a single finish in the UFC. He wins his fights pushing his opponents against the fence. Clinch work. And uses take downs. Smith has average wrestling and average submissions. Based on Muradov having the wrestling to stuff take downs from di Chirico, I’m confident he can do the same against Smith. Fight will play out on the feet. Muradov will easily out strike him and cruise to a decision win.