Jon Jones vs Dominick Reyes
—Dominick Reyes
Jon Jones is almost the perfect fighter. He’s close. But he does have one area that isn’t plus and where he can be vulnerable. And that’s the lack of plus knockout power. 32 years old. In my opinion, he’s pound for pound, the best mixed martial arts in history to this current point. The DQ loss to Matt Hamill was bogus, I remember watching that. Jones is undefeated. 25-0 pro record. Unprecedented 19-0 UFC record. 20-0 UFC record if you count Jones knocking out Daniel Cormier in their 2nd fight. He’s beat everybody. Plus wrestling. Plus submissions. Plus striking. However, his striking power is average. That’s his vulnerability. Jones has 5 UFC knockouts. And let’s say we count the Cormier fight and make that 6. Well, 4 of the 6 knockouts came by ground and pound TKOs. So Jones has had only 2 knockouts that happened on the feet. Shogun Rua and Cormier. 2 out of 20 wins. Jones has become the greatest fighter of all time by using his wrestling, submission game, and ground and pound. Reyes is 30 years old. Undefeated. 12-0 pro record. 6-0 UFC record. He’s knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, and Chris Weidman. Reyes came close to knocking out Volkan Oezdemir, gassed himself out in the process, and had not much left for the 2nd half of the fight. Escaped with a split decision win. Reyes has easy plus striking. And he also has above average wrestling. I had Reyes at average wrestling until the Weidman fight where Reyes was able to stuff the take downs. Since 2013, Jones has had a pattern of rising to the occasion and fighting at his best when his opponent is a perceived threat. But when Jones is fighting someone everyone thinks he’s going to beat, Jones is not at his best. This happened in the first Alex Gustafsson fight. The St. Preux fight was one of Jones most lackluster wins. And the Anthony Smith fight, Jones didn’t look that great. But the Thiago Santos fight, I really think if Santos hadn’t torn every ligament in his knee, Santos would’ve knocked Jones out. Santos fought most of that fight on 1 knee and Jones barely squeaked out a split decision win. Jones is most vulnerable when his opponent has the wrestling to force the fight to be on the feet and when the opponent has more power. That’s Reyes. Reyes has the wrestling to get back up if taken down or even stuff the take downs all together. It’s possible Jones might have slightly better striking technique, but Reyes has way more power. I think Reyes will catch Jones in the 2nd round and knock him out.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Katlyn Chookagian
—Valentina Shevchenko
I have a feeling this fight is going to look really similar to Cris Cyborg vs Holly Holm. Where Katlyn Chookagian’s best chance of winning this fight will be to get on her bike, stay on the outside, and stay at range. Rinse and repeat for 25 minutes. 31 years old. 6-2 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Liz Carmouche. And barely lost a split decision to Jessica Eye. Chookagian has a split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana and wins over Joanne Calderwood, and Jennifer Maia. Chookagian has plus striking paired with below average power. She also has wrestling that’s a little bit above average. Shevchenko is also 31 years old. 7-2 UFC record. The only 2 losses were to Amanda Nunes. And for what it’s worth, I thought Shevchenko won the 2nd Nunes fight. Shevchenko has wins over Holm, Julianna Pena, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Eye, and Carmouche. She’s got plus plus striking paired with plus power. Shevchenko also has plus grappling. I just don’t see anyway Chookagian wins this fight other than with speed. But Shevchenko is really fast too. Maybe Chookagian works on figuring out how to unlock her striking power and blitzes and surprises Shevchenko. But the odds are overwhelmingly in Shevchenko’s favor. Her striking technique is on another level and she’s going to win by decision.
Juan Adams vs Justin Tafa
—Juan Adams
Fun fight. Two quality striking prospects. Adams is 27 years old. 5-2 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Arjan Singh Bhullar. And got knocked out by Greg Hardy. But Adams has also knocked out a 5-1 grappler and knocked out Chris de la Rocha. Striking is above average paired with plus power. Adams also has average wrestling. Justin Tafa is 26 years old. 3-1 pro record. Got knocked out in his UFC debut by Yorgan de Castro. All wins are over cans. Tafa has been getting a lot of hype, but based on the lack of quality competition, I’m grading his striking as being average, but paired with above average power. Adams has beat quality opponents. Adams has more big stage experience. And even if Tafa starts getting the better of Adams in the stand up, Adams also has the option of using his wrestling to take Tafa down. But I think Adams will knock out Tafa in the 1st round.
Mirsad Bektic vs Dan Ige
—Mirsad Bektic
Really intriguing fight, with the main question being can Dan Ige get the fight on the ground. Ige is 28 years old. 5-1 UFC record. He only lost to Julio Arce. He couldn’t get Arce on the ground and Arce out struck him. Ige has a submission win over Danny Henry and he beat Kevin Aguilar in his last fight. Ige has plus grappling. He also has above average striking. Bektic is also 28 years old. 6-2 UFC record. His loss to Darren Elkins was a learning experience. He was easily out striking Elkins but gassed out trying to finish him. And Bektic got knocked out by Josh Emmett in his last fight. But Bektic has a majority win over Chas Skelly, knocked out Lucas Martins and Godofredo Pepey. And beat Ricardo Lamas by split decision. Bektic has plus striking and above average wrestling. Stylistically, this fight is a bad matchup for Ige and very similar to what he went up against with Arce. Bektic is a guy he likely won’t be able to get on the ground. Fight will be on the feet. And although the striking technique between Bektic and Ige is close to equal, Bektic will have a power advantage. That’s going to lead to a Bektic knockout in the 2nd round.
Derrick Lewis vs Ilir Latifi
—Derrick Lewis
Really tough matchup for Latifi for his 1st fight at heavyweight. 36 years old. 7-5 UFC record. He lost to Corey Anderson, but also has been knocked out by Jan Blachowicz, Ryan Bader, and Volkan Oezdemir. 3 of Latifi’s last 4 losses have been from getting knocked out. Latifi’s best wins have been a decision win over Gian Villante and Tyson Pedro. And a submission win over Ovince St. Preux. Latifi has above average striking paired with plus power. And he’s also got average grappling. Lewis is 34 years old. 13-5 UFC record. He had a couple losses early in his career back in 2014-2015. But since then, Lewis has only lost to Mark Hunt, Daniel Cormier, and Junior dos Santos. He was finished in all of them. Lewis does have knockout wins over Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. And he’s one of only 2 fighters in the UFC who’s beat Francis Ngannou. 10 of Lewis’ 13 wins are knockouts. Lewis has above average striking paired with plus plus power. This is just a nightmare of a style matchup for Latifi. His biggest flaw is his chin. Lewis has the 2nd best knockout power in the UFC next to Ngannou. Sure, it’s possible Latifi could catch Lewis in a guillotine choke like he got OSP. But Lewis is so much bigger. He cuts down to 265 lbs. I’d be very surprised if Lewis doesn’t knock him out in the 1st round.
Jimmie Rivera vs Marlon Vera
—Marlon Vera
This is a fight with 2 guys whose careers are going in opposite directions. Vera is 27 years old. Had his first UFC fight was he was 21. 9-4 UFC record. But he’s won 5 in a row and all of them were finishes. Vera lost to Marco Beltran and Davey Grant in his first 3 UFC fights. At that point Vera was mainly a grappler and lost the stand up. Since then, Vera’s stand up has gotten tons better and he’s gone 8-2 only losing to John Lineker and Douglas de Andrade. Vera’s best wins have been over Brad Pickett, Brian Kelleher, Guido Cannetti, and Frankie Saenz. And the Saenz knockout stands out especially to me due to how durable Saenz usually is. Incredibly, Vera has improved his striking enough to where I can give him a plus grade. And he’s also got above average grappling. Jimmie Rivera is 30 years old. 6-3 UFC record. Won his first 5 UFC fights. Got knocked out by Marlon Moraes and that’s when everything changed for Rivera. His next fight he came out with a lackluster win over John Dodson, who isn’t at the same level he used to be. And then was easily beat by Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan. The wins were great. Pedro Munhoz. Urijah Faber. Thomas Almeida. But to my eyes, he’s not as sharp as he was back before getting knocked out by Moraes. With where Rivera is at now, I think he has above average striking paired with average power. And he also has above average wrestling. I think this fight is going to be on the feet. The striking technique should be close to equal. But Vera’s knockout power is for real. And Rivera can be knocked out. I’m calling for a Vera 1st round knockout.
Trevin Giles vs James Krause
—James Krause
Krause steps in for Antonio Arroyo to fight Trevin Giles on close to 24 hours notice. Giles is 27 years old. 11-2 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. He’s been submitted by 2 pretty good grapplers in Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert, but really, the Cummings loss was due to Giles nearly being knocked out and then Cummings put the guillotine on. The 2 UFC wins were knockouts over a 8-1 grappler and a 9-2 grappler. Giles also has a submission win over a 20 year old Brendan Allen and submitted a 9-2 striker. Giles also beat Ryan Spann by split decision. Giles is well rounded and has average striking, wrestling, and submissions. Krause is 33 years old. Very quiet 8-3 UFC record. Very under the radar. Lost a split decision by being out wrestled by Valmir Lazaro. Krause has submission wins over Sam Stout and Daron Cruickshank. And he has knockout wins over Jamie Varner, Warlley Alves, and Sergio Moraes. Krause has especially looked better at 170 lbs as he’s 2-0. Alves and Moraes are probably the biggest wins of his career. Krause now has above average striking and above average grappling. This is a super interesting fight, because normally, I’d say Krause is better everywhere and he easily wins wherever he wants. But not only is Krause fighting on 24 hours notice, he’s also fight up a weight class at 185 lbs. But Giles has lost 2 in a row. Krause has won 6 in a row. Krause’s cardio might not be as good. And he probably doesn’t want to get hit by a guy who’s going to be bigger than him. But I think Krause has the skills to out grapple Giles and will win by decision.
Alex Morono vs Khaos Williams
—Alex Morono
Morono is a fighter who’s been improving by leaps and bounds, but doing it a bit under the radar. 29 years old. 6-2 UFC record. He lost a split decision to Keita Nakamura by being slightly out grappled. And was out struck by Jordan Mein. Morono has wins over Kenan Song and Max Griffing. And he knocked out Zak Ottow. Morono’s striking has improved to now being above average, paired with average power. And his grappling is above average. Kalinn Williams is 25 years old. 8-1 pro record. Making his UFC debut on less than 2 weeks notice. His only loss was to a pro debuting fighter, lost by decision. Williams biggest win was beating a well rounded 9-3 fighter. All other wins over cans. All of Williams’ tools are below average but he’s best at striking. Morono should have a gigantic advantage in the grappling department. Look for him to take Williams down early and finish with a ground and pound TKO in the 1st round.
Andrea Lee vs Lauren Murphy
—Andrea Lee
I get the logic on why this fight was made. Lee is 30 years old. 11-3 pro record. 3-1 in the UFC. Besides losing a very close split decision to contender Joanne Calderwood, the only other times Lee has lost has been to wrestlers. Lee has wins over Veronica Macedo, Ashlee Evans-Smith, and Montana de la Rosa. Evans-Smith has some decent wrestling so it seems like Lee has gotten better there. Lee has plus striking paired with below average power. She also has average grappling. Lauren Murphy is 36 years old. 3-5 UFC record. But all the losses have come against contenders. Murphy has beat Barb Honchak by split decision and knocked out Mara Romero Borella. All of her other wins are over cans. Murphy has above average wrestling paired with plus ground and pound. And her striking is a little above average. So this fight is a good test for Lee’s take down defense. She doesn’t want to be on the ground with Murphy. But I think Lee will be able to keep it on the feet where she’ll have a big advantage in the striking. The question is whether she can start to unlock some more power. I’ll pick Lee by decision.
Miles Johns vs Mario Bautista
—Miles Johns
Johns has the look of a potential contender. 25 years old. 10-0 pro record. 2-0 UFC record. Beat a very tough Cole Smith by split decision. He’s also beat a 7-1 grappler, beat a 7-2 striker by split decision, submitted a 5-0 striker, beat a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and beat a well rounded 6-2 fighters. So 6 out of Johns’ 10 wins have been against quality competition. And it’s his near plus wrestling that’s carried him there. Johns also has average striking. Bautista is 26 years old. 7-1 pro record. 1-1 UFC record. Only lost to title contender Cory Sandhagen. Bautista’s lone win in the UFC was over a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Bautista also has a win over a 7-1-2 wrestler. He’s pretty well rounded. Average wrestling and submissions. And Bautista also has average striking. So the crux of this fight is whether or not Johns can take Bautista down. I don’t think Johns will be able to keep Bautista down the whole fight, but will get him down there enough to win by decision.
Domingo Pilarte vs Journey Newson
—Journey Newson
Pilarte is 30 years old. 8-2 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC so far. He lost a close split decision to Felipe Colares that really could’ve gone either way. Pilarte’s other loss was against a well rounded 5-0 featherweight. Pilarte usually fights at bantamweight. Pilarte has a submission win over a 7-1 striker and a split decision win over a well rounded 5-1 fighter. All other wins over cans. He’s got grappling that’s a little above average. Newson is also 30 years old. Also has a 8-2 pro record. Lost his UFC debut on short notice against rising contender Ricardo Ramos. Newson’s only other loss was getting knocked out by current UFC fighter Benito Lopez. But when it comes to wins, Newson hasn’t beat a single quality opponent. All of his wins have come over tomato cans. And on paper, with his resume so far, I initially thought all of Newson’s tools are below average. But the truth is if you saw his fight with Ramos, he did really well considering he took that fight on very short notice. The first 2 rounds were close, before Ramos took over in the 3rd round getting a couple take downs and landing a big spinning back fist. I grade Newson as having average striking, wrestling, and submissions. When Pilarte beat Morales, he was almost knocked out twice. I think Newson is a much better striker than Morales. And Newson has the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. And it’s possible Newson has better than average striking but he’s only fought one quality opponent besides Ramos. So for those reasons, I like Newson by 2nd round knockout.
Andre Ewell vs Jonathan Martinez
—Jonathan Martinez
Martinez is 25 years old. 11-2 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath due to being taken down. Martinez’s only other career loss was a DQ against Matt Schnell. And as far as wins go, Martinez doesn’t have a lot of quality on his resume. He knocked out Pingyuan Liu in his last fight. But all his other wins are over cans. Martinez has average striking. Andre Ewell is 31 years old. 15-6 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. Got submitted by Nathaniel Wood and knocked out by Marlon Vera. Not too much shame there. But he’s also lost to a well rounded 4-1 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and a split decision loss to another well rounded 4-1 fighter. Ewell beat Renan Barao by split decision and beat a 20-7 journeyman. Those are his 2 UFC wins. All his other wins are over cans. All of Ewell’s tools are below average but he’s best at striking. This fight is pretty straight forward. It’s going to be on the feet. Martinez has the better striking. Martinez by decision.
Austin Lingo vs Youssef Zalal
—Austin Lingo
Striker vs grappler. Youssef Zalal is 23 years old. 7-2 pro record. Lost to a well rounded 8-3 fighter. He submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. All other wins over cans. Zalal has average grappling. Lingo is 25 years old. 7-0 pro record. His best win is a knock out over a 6-1 striker. All other wins over cans. Lingo has above average striking. The sample size of Lingo fighting quality competition is small, but I think his wrestling and grapping is close to average. Which means I think he can keep this fight on the feet, where he would have a monster advantage. I’m picking Lingo by 1st round knockout.