Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero
—Yoel Romero
This is a coin flip fight. Adesanya is 30 years old. 7-0 UFC record. His toughest fight in the UFC was a split decision win against Marvin Vettori and the back and forth win over Kelvin Gastelum. Knocked out Robert Whittaker and Derek Brunson. Beat Anderson Silva. Adesanya has plus striking and above average wrestling. Romero is 42 years old (!). 9-3 UFC record. 7 of his 9 wins have come by knockout. But what’s interesting is that 6 of those 7 knockouts came in the 3rd round. Romero has only lost to 2 fighters in the UFC. Twice lost to Whittaker. And a split decision loss to Paulo Costa. And for what it’s worth, I think Romero beat Costa and Whittaker in the 2nd fight. He’s knocked out Derek Brunson, Lyoto Machida, Chris Weidman, and Luke Rockhold. And he beat Jacare Souza by split decision. Romero has plus striking paired with plus plus power. He also has above average wrestling. The thing that keeps me from giving Adesanya a plus plus grade in his striking is how he almost got knocked out by Kelvin Gastelum. And although Gastelum is a pretty good fighter, Gastelum has won only 2 of his last 5 fights. 1 of those wins was a knockout over Michael Bisping, who took that fight 2 weeks after he lost the title and was finished by Georges St. Pierre. The other was a split decision win against Jacare Souza. And I thought Jacare won that fight. Yes, the Whittaker knockout was impressive, but Whittaker was coming off multiple injuries. Hadn’t fought in a year and a half. I’m not saying Adesanya is illegitimate, I’m just saying there’s question marks. My thought process is just that if Gastelum could land on Adesanya, there’s a decent chance Romero could too. And Romero has way, way more power. And Romero is durable. I don’t see Adesanya being able to get the knockout or end the fight quick. It’s also possible that Adesanya could be easier to hit if Romero tries to attack with take downs and changes levels. Now, it’s possible Adesanya out strikes Romero and wins by decision. But Romero has such a track record of knocking out top guys in their prime. I think this fight could go either way, but because Romero is a 2 to 1 underdog, I’m going to roll the dice on Romero by 3rd round knockout.
Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
—Joanna Jedrzejczyk
This is such an interesting fight due to the fact that Zhang became champion in just her 4th UFC fight. So the sample size is pretty small. 30 years old. 20-1 pro record. 4-0 UFC record. Knocked out Jessica Andrade to become champion. Beat Tecia Torres. And she’s knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Zhang has plus striking and above average grappling. Joanna is 32 years old. 10-3 UFC record. She’s only lost to Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko at 125 lbs. She’s beaten Jessica Andrade, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Tecia Torres, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha twice. Knocked out Carla Esparza and Jessica Penne. Joanna has plus plus striking paired with above average power. And she also has above average wrestling. So the tricky thing in picking this fight is how do you grade Zhang’s tools. Most of Zhang’s wins outside the UFC were over cans. She beat Torres pretty decisively. But so did Marina Rodriguez. Then the fight with Andrade, Zhang blitzed her and it seemed Andrade wasn’t prepared for it. Could Zhang out strike Andrade for 5 rounds? Who knows. Could Zhang out strike Joanna for 5 rounds? Maybe. How good is Zhang’s cardio? She’s never been in a 5 round fight before. Her cardio is probably okay, but is it on Joanna’s level? Probably not. Recently, most heavy underdogs that have been winning, they do it by blitzing from the very start of the fight. I saw this just a couple weeks ago when Khaos Williams knocked out Alex Morono. So there’s a lot of unknowns. But what is known is that Joanna has a lengthy track record of beating everybody at 115 lbs except Namajunas. To me, it’s safer to pick Joanna. She has an advantage in experience and it’s a really big deal she has experience going 5 rounds for the majority of her UFC career. She knows how to pace herself. Due to all these factors, I think Zhang might win the first round, but Joanna’s pressure will really take over in the middle of the fight and win at least the last 3 rounds. Joanna by decision.
Beneil Dariush vs Drakkar Klose
—Beneil Dariush
I see this fight being pretty similar to Drakkar Klose vs David Teymur. Klose is 31 years old. 11-1 pro record. 5-1 UFC record. Klose’s only career loss was against Teymur, when Klose couldn’t take him down and Teymur easily out struck him. Klose’s biggest wins are a split decision over Marc Diakiese and a decision win over Bobby Green. He’s got above average wrestling and striking that’s close to average. Dariush is 30 years old. 11-4-1 UFC record. Got knocked out by Ramsey Nijem back in 2014 and by Alexander Hernandez. Was submitted by Michael Chiesa. And fought Evan Dunham to a draw. He has submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out James Vick. Beat Diego Ferreira, Jim Miller, and Michael Johnson by split decision. Dariush has near plus wrestling and submissions. He also has average striking. Klose has gotten to 5-1 in the UFC because of his wrestling and cardio. But those two tools are going to get nullified here against Dariush. This is going to be a stand up fight. Dariush will win the striking exchanges and will win by decision.
Neil Magny vs Jingliang Li
—Jingliang Li
Jingliang is coming off the biggest win of his career, knocking out Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. 31 years old. 9-3 UFC record. Got submitted by Keita Nakamura. Has also knocked out Dhiego Lima, Zak Ottow, and David Zawada. Jingliang has plus striking and above average wrestling. Neil Magny is 32 years old. 17-7 UFC record. Has been knocked out by Lorenz Larkin. Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Johny Hendricks and Tim Means. Magny has above average striking paired with average power. He also has above average wrestling. Pretty straight forward fight. The wrestling cancels itself out here. Stand up fight. In striking technique, it’s close. But Jingliang has way more power. He’s going to knock Magny out in the 1st round.
Alex Oliveira vs Max Griffin
—Alex Oliveira
Oliveira is 31 years old. 9-6 UFC record, although he’s lost 3 in a row, including losses to Nicholas Dalby and Mike Perry. And Oliveira has been knocked out by Yancy Medeiros. Oliveira’s significant wins didn’t come until he moved up to 170 lbs. He submitted Tim Means and knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Oliveira has above average striking, average wrestling, and an average submission game. Max Griffin is 34 years old. 3-5 UFC record. Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost a split decision to Thiago Alves. Beat Mike Perry. Griffin has average striking and wrestling that’s close to average. Almost a guarantee to be a stand up fight. It’s possible Oliveira could take Griffin down, but I doubt it. They’ll likely trade strikes. I like Oliveira’s striking better. And because Griffin is durable, I’m going with Oliveira by decision.
Sean O’Malley vs Jose Quinonez
—Sean O’Malley
Jose Quinonez is 29 years old. 6-3 UFC record. He’s the toughest opponent O’Malley has gone against. Quinonez has been knocked out by a well rounded 5-0 fighter. He’s beat Marco Beltran, Diego Rivas and Teruto Ishihara. Quinonez has above average striking but it’s paired with below average power. Volume puncher. He also has average wrestling. O’Malley is 25 years old. 10-0 pro record. 3-0 UFC record. Has a win over Andre Soukhamthath. And he knocked out a well rounded 9-1 fighter. O’Malley has near plus striking and average wrestling. The UFC booked this fight to make O’Malley look good. Yes, Quinonez is a quality striker. But he lacks knockout power. So this fight is almost guaranteed to be on the feet. Striking could be close. But O’Malley does have power and he’s eventually going to catch Quinonez. 2nd round knockout.
Mark O. Madsen vs Austin Hubbard
—Mark O. Madsen
Austin Hubbard is 28 years old. 11-3 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC. He’s been submitted by a well rounded 4-1 fighter. And has a loss to Eric Wisely. He beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Hubbard has average striking and average wrestling. Madsen is 35 years old. 9-0 pro record. Knocked out a 12-4 striker with ground and pound in his UFC debut. He also has a win over a well rounded 12-4 fighter. Madsen has above average wrestling, but it’s very possible the tool is better than that. Problem is that Madsen hasn’t gone against top notch competition yet. But I do think he’ll be able to take Hubbard down and will do enough on the ground to win by decision.
Rodolfo Vieira vs Saparbek Safarov
—Saparbek Safarov
Safarov is 33 years old 9-2 pro record. 1-2 in the UFC so far. He’s moving down to 185 lbs for this fight. Has been knocked out by Gian Vilante and submitted by Tyson Pedro, both at 205 lbs. He’s submitted a 5-1 striker and beat a 9-0 striker. Safarov has wrestling that’s a little above average. And also has average striking. Rodolfo Vieira is 30 years old. 6-0 pro record. Submitted Oskar Piechota in his UFC debut. And he’s submitted a well rounded 10-0 fighter. Vieira has near plus grappling. At first glance, looking at the Safarov vs Pedro fight and how Pedro submitted Safarov, my knee jerk reaction was, oh, easy fight for Vieira. But Safarov was beating Pedro at the time. Had no problem taking Pedro down. He just got caught against the fence with a kimura. Now Safarov moves down a weight class. He’s likely to be bigger than Vieira. His wrestling could be better than it was at 205 lbs. I think it’s very possible Safarov has the wrestling to stuff Vieira’s take downs. And if that happens, Vieira will be in trouble on the feet. But this is definitely a coin flip fight that could go either way. But because the books have nutty odds right now with Vieira as high as a -800 favorite, I’m picking the upset. Safarov by 2nd round knockout.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Deron Winn
—Deron Winn
Close fight. Deron Winn is 30 years old. 6-1 pro record. 1-1 in UFC so far. Lost a close split decision to Darren Stewart. Beat Eric Spicely in his UFC debut. All other wins over cans. Winn is one dimensional, but his wrestling is plus. Meerschaert is 32 years old. 5-4 UFC record. Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders. Submitted Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles. Meerschaert has near plus grappling and average striking. Meerschart could easily be 7-2 in the UFC had those split decisions with Anders and Holland gone his way. But styles make fights and in Meerschaert’s last fight with Eryk Anders, he tried and failed to get Anders on the ground. I know that Winn’s wrestling is better than Anders. I can see Winn getting take downs and being able to control Meerschaert. Because of that I’ll go with Winn by decision.
Emily Whitmire vs Polyana Viana
—Polyana Viana
Viana is 27 years old. 1-3 UFC record. Lost to a 7-6 fighter. Knocked out Amanda Ribas in 2015. The Ribas knockout has aged well, but based on the entire body of work, I grade Viana as having average striking and average grappling. Emily Whitmire is 28 years old. 3-3 UFC record. All 3 UFC losses were against quality opponents. Whitmire’s biggest win was a submission over Aleksandra Albu. She has grappling that’s a little above average. Despite the UFC records, Viana will have the edge here as their grappling should cancel out. Viana’s striking is better and I expect her to win by decision.
Giga Chikadze vs Jamall Emmers
—Jamall Emmers
Emmers is 30 years old. 17-4 pro record. 0-1 in the UFC so far. Emmers was submitted by a 17-14 striker. And has been knocked out by Thiago Moises and Julian Erosa. He beat UFC contender Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. He’s Sandhagen’s only career loss. Emmers also has a split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013. He submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Emmers has above average wrestling. Giga Chikadze is 31 years old. 8-2 pro record. 1-1 UFC record. He’s taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. Was submitted by a 10-2 striker. Beat Brandon Davis by split decision. Chikadze has average striking. Should be a pretty straight forward fight. Emmers wrestling will be the great equalizer. He should be able to take Chikadze down. Rinse and repeat. Emmers by decision.
Guido Cannetti vs Danaa Batgerel
—Guido Cannetti
Danaa Batgerel is 30 years old. 6-2 pro record. Lost his UFC debut to Heili Alateng. He also lost to a 3-1 fighter. Has submitted an 8-2 grappler. Batgerel has average striking paired with below average power. Cannetti is 40 years old. 2-5 UFC record. Got submitted by Enrique Briones and looked good against Marlon Vera before being submitted in the 2nd round. Cannetti’s biggest win is over Diego Rivas. Cannetti might have a 2-5 UFC record, but he’s been a different guy since taking a 3 year break in 2015 and coming back 2018. Yes, he does have a 1-2 UFC record since that, but tool wise, he’s been much better. I grade Cannetti as having above average striking and average wrestling. Even though Cannetti is 40 years old, the tools are the tools and Cannetti has the better striking tool. And he may even be able to take Batgerel down if he needed to. But based off that Vera fight, I think Cannetti gets the knockout in the 2nd round.