Eye vs Calvillo, Vettori vs Roberson, Dvalishvili vs L Fight Picks

Jessica Eye vs Cynthia Calvillo
 
Jessica Eye
Age: 33
UFC Record: 4-1 in the UFC at 125 lbs.
Key Wins: Beat Viviane Araujo and Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision win over Katlyn Chookagian. 
Tools: Eye has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
 
Cynthia Calvillo
Age: 32
UFC Record: 5-1-1 at 115 lbs.
Key Draws: Fought Marina Rodriguez to a draw. 
Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho. Knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Beat Cortney Casey, Joanne Calderwood, and Gillian Robertson. Beat Aspen Ladd in an amateur bout in 2014.
Tools: Calvillo has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).
 
This is a tricky fight to pick as Calvillo is making her 125 lb debut against the #1 ranked contender in Eye. So we’ve never seen Calvillo at flyweight, but we do know there’s a cavalcade of UFC fighters that have been having success as a heavier weight class. I think Calvillo follows that trend. Assuming Calvillo’s tools translate to 125 lbs, this fight should be all about if Cavillo can get Eye to the ground. Yes, Calvillo’s striking has improved. Yes, we could see it improve even more in this fight. But I was also impressed with Eye’s last fight in the way she defended her #1 ranking against Araujo. Her striking was precise. Cardio shouldn’t be a factor here as neither fighter has gone 5 rounds before.
 
Chris’ Pick: Ultimately, I do see Calvillo being able to take Eye down. Eye’s only been submitted once in her career, back in 2011. So I’ll pick Calvillo to win via decision.
 
 
 
 
Marvin Vettori vs Karl Roberson
 
Marvin Vettori
Age: 26
UFC Record: 4-2-1
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya. 
Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw. 
Key Wins: Beat Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez. 
Tools: Vettori has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
 
Karl Roberson
Age: 29
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Losses: Submitted by Cezar Ferreira. 
Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann. Submitted Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov. 
Tools: Roberson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). Roberson also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50). 
 
Vettori is better everywhere. But it’s closer on the feet vs the ground. Vettori’s striking has been developing at a rapid pace. It’s possible he could beat Roberson in the striking exchanges. But it’s been proven that Roberson can be beat by taking him down and submitting him.
 
Chris’ Pick: I like both fighter’s long term potential, but Vettori is going to submit Roberson in the 2nd round.
 
 
 
 
Merab Dvalishvili vs Gustavo Lopez
 
Merab Dvalishvili
Age: 29
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Got submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Lost a split decision to Frankie Saenz in his UFC debut. 
Key Wins: Beat Casey Kenney and Brad Katona. 
Tools: Dvalishvili has near plus plus wrestling (75).
 
Gustavo Lopez
Age: 30
Pro Record: 11-4
Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Submitted a 14-2 striker.
Tools: Lopez has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
Lopez steps in for Ray Borg on 2 days notice and it’s almost impossible for him to win this fight, outside catching Dvalishvili early while the fight is on the feet. Dvalishvili’s wrestling, pace, and cardio is going to be overwhelming for Lopez.
Chris’ Pick: It’s not the UFC’s fault but this is going to be one of the most lopsided fights that’s been in the UFC in awhile. I think Dvalishvili wins by ground and pound TKO in the 1st round.
 
 
 
 
Andre Fili vs Charles Jourdain
 
Andre Fili
Age: 29
UFC Record: 8-6
Key Losses: Submitted by Godofredo Pepey. Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
Key Wins: Knocked out Sheymon Moraes. Beat Myles Jury. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
Tools: Fili has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
 
Charles Jourdain
Age: 24
Pro Record: 10-2
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green
Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted a 9-3 striker. 
Tools: Jourdain has near plus striking (65) and average grappling (50).
 
Fili had the most momentum he’s ever had in his career going into the Sodiq Yusuff fight. And then Yusuff out struck Fili pretty decisively. I think I’ve probably been the low guy on Fili. The Moraes knockout was a big win no doubt, but it’s really the only truly impressive win of his career. Sometimes lucky knockouts happen and it’s too early for me to know if the Moraes knockout was lucky, or if Fili really has improved his striking. Jourdain is a big unknown too though. Going into his fight with Choi, Jourdain looked like a below average prospect to me. Green dominated him in his UFC debut. He only had 1 quality win on his resume. It looked like a soft landing spot for Choi after losing 2 fights in a row and being away from the sport for awhile to serve in the military. But boy was I wrong. I’m pretty convinced the Choi knock out wasn’t lucky as Jourdain had him hurt all fight. 
 
Chris’ Pick: It’s a tough fight to pick because of the unknowns but seeing Jourdain at +200 is really the clincher for me picking Jourdain by decision.
 
 
 
 
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark de la Rosa
 
Jordan Espinosa
Age: 30
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Submitted by Matt Schnell. 
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out an 11-3 striker. 
Tools: Espinosa has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
 
Mark de la Rosa
Age: 25
UFC Record: 2-4
Key Losses: Knocked out by Raulian Paiva.
Tools: De la Rosa has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
 
For de la Rosa to win this fight, he’s going to need improved striking. Currently, he’s one dimensional and his grappling tool isn’t good enough to carry him. Espinosa should have the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet.
 
Chris’ Pick: I just don’t think de la Rosa has enough time to get his striking where it needs to be to win exchanges against Espinosa. So I’m picking Espinosa by decision.
 
 
 
 
Hannah Cifers vs Mariya Agapova
 
Hannah Cifers
Age: 27
Pro Record: 10-5
UFC Record: 2-3
Key Wins: Beat Polyana Viana by split decision. 
Tools: Cifers has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
 
Mariya Agapova
Age: 23
Pro Record: 8-1
UFC Record: 0-1
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
Tools: Agapova has above average striking (60). She also have average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
 
This is more of a projection pick. On paper, both Cifers’ and Agapova are close to equal. But I like Agapova’s upside. She lost to Tracy Cortez on the Contender cause she didn’t have the wrestling to stop Cortez’s take downs. But her lack of wrestling won’t be a problem with Cifers. This will be a stand up fight. Cifers is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice and Cifers just got submitted by Dern on May 30th. Agapova has had a full training camp.
 
Chris’ Pick: Could be a close fight, but I’m confident we’re going to see a better version of Agapova. I see her out striking Cifers to win by decision.
 
 
 
 
Kevin Aguilar vs Charles Rosa
 
Kevin Aguilar
Age: 31
UFC Record: 3-2
Key WIns: Beat Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola. 
Tools: Aguilar has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
 
Charles Rosa
Age: 33
UFC Record: 3-4
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Yair Rodriguez in 2015.
Key Wins: Submitted Manny Bermudez. Beat Kyle Bochniak.
Tools: Rosa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
 
I couldn’t believe how bad Bryce Mitchell dominated Rosa. To this day, I’m still trying to figure out did Mitchell get that much better? Or was Rosa not as good as I thought? Or maybe somewhere in the middle? Some fights, Rosa looks like a potential contender, like when he barely lost a split decision to Yair Rodriguez. And when he submitted Manny Bermudez in the 1st round. I’m just not sure. Meanwhile Aguilar is more of a known quantity. At 31 years of age and 20 pro fights, I think he’s close to his ceiling. As is Rosa. I think Aguilar’s striking and wrestling is better than Rosa’s. By a little bit. I think.
 
Chris’ Pick: There’s too much variance to Rosa’s profile. Aguilar has two viable paths to win. He could go either route. I’m going Aguilar by decision.
 
 
 
 
Julia Avila vs Gina Mazany
 
Julia Avila
Age: 32
Pro Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Beat Pannie Kianzad, Nicco Montano, and Marion Reneau.
Tools: Avila has plus striking (70). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
 
Gina Mazany
Age: 31
Pro Record: 6-3
UFC Record: 1-3
Key Wins: Beat Yanan Wu.
Tools: Mazany has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50). 
 
Mazany has really had a tough strength of schedule. Sara McMann. Lina Lansberg. Macy Chiasson. Now Avila. These are all successful, quality UFC fighters. Mazany is still developing but the problems she has in this fight is 1) she’s taking it on 1 week’s notice. And 2) Avila is really good. I haven’t watched Avila too much, but her striking was a clear tier above Kianzad’s. She even dropped Kianzad a couple times. Mazany’s main chance to win here is if she can somehow take Avila down and keep her there, but I doubt it. Avila has wins over Montano and Reneau who both have quality wrestling.
 
Chris’ Pick: Avila’s speed and accuracy are going to overwhelm Mazany. Avila will get the knockout in the 2nd round.
 
 
 
 

Tyson Nam vs Zarrukh Adashev

 
Tyson Nam
Age: 36
Pro Record: 18-11-1
UFC Record: 0-2
Tools: Nam has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
 
Zarrukh Adashev
Age: 27
Pro Record: 3-1
Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler in his pro dedut in 2015.
Tools: Adashev has striking that’s a little above average (55).
 
It’s possible Adashev’s striking is way better than I think it is. He’s an accomplished kickboxer. But it’s hard to say how his striking translates to MMA as every fighter he’s gone against was a tomato can. Nam lost his first two UFC fights, but was competitive against ranked guys in Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. And just in case Adashev’s striking is better, I’m almost certain Nam will be able to take Adashev down.
 
Chris’ Pick: Nam’s experience and wrestling will make the difference in him winning by decision.
 
 
 
 
Jordan Griffin vs Darrick Minner
 
Jordan Griffin
Age: 30
Pro Record: 18-7
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler. And submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Has a majority decision over a 10-2 striker.
Tools: Griffin has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).  
 
Darrick Minner
Age: 30
Pro Record: 24-11
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 grappler.
Tools: Minner has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
 
Turns out this fight is a rematch! Griffin fought Minner back in 2018 and Griffin submitted Minner in the 2nd round. And you how I feel about picking rematches. So there’s that. But Griffin’s striking has improved. It’s less risky for Griffin to keep the fight on the feet where he should be able to easily out strike Minner.
 
Chris’ Pick: Whoever wins the first fight almost always wins the rematch. I like Griffin win by decision.
 
 
 
 
Anthony Ivy vs Christian Aguilera
 
Anthony Ivy
Age: 30
Pro Record: 8-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 wrestler, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
Tools: Ivy has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
 
Christian Aguilera
Age: 28
Pro Record: 13-6
Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 7-5 fighter. Split decision loss to an 11-6 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
Tools: Aguilera has below average striking paired with average power (40-50).
 
Easy fight for Ivy. He’s a legit prospect the UFC was already planning on signing soon. Aguilera has some knockout power, but he doesn’t make enough contact. His offense is ahead of his defense. It makes sense for Ivy to take Aguilera down where he doesn’t pose any threat.
 
Chris’ Pick: Ivy by ground and pound TKO in the 1st round.

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