Blaydes vs Volkov, Emmett vs Burgos, Pennington vs Reneau Fight Picks

Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 29
UFC Record: 8-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Mark Hunt and Justin Willis. 
Tools: Blaydes has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
Alexander Volkov
Age: 31
UFC Record: 5-1
Key Wins: Beat Greg Hardy and Roy Nelson. Knocked out Fabricio Werdum. 
Tools: Volkov has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Upon further review, this is a much more interesting fight than I thought. I rewatched Volkov vs Werdum and Volkov has better wrestling than I remember. Yes, early in the fight, Werdum was able to take Volkov down. But as the fight went on, Werdum slowed down and wasn’t able to take Volkov down anymore. In this fight, Blaydes will have to work for the takedowns. And even if he gets Volkov down, I don’t think he can hold him down the whole fight. I think half this fight could be on the feet. Both have great cardio. The difference in this fight is going to be the new found power that Blaydes has been able to tap into. Volkov has plus striking. But his knockout power isn’t plus. So his opponent, even when getting out struck, has a chance to knock Volkov out. Like in the Derrick Lewis fight. 
Chris’ Pick: The striking is close, Blaydes doesn’t get as many takedowns as he’d like, but it won’t matter as he’ll land a power shot on Volkov in the 2nd round and knock him out.
Josh Emmett vs Shane Burgos
Josh Emmett
Age: 35
UFC Record: 4-1 at 145 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic.
Tools: Emmett has above average striking paired with plus power (60-70). He also has near plus wrestling (65). 
Shane Burgos
Age: 29
UFC Record: 6-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Marwan Amirkhani and Charles Rosa. Split decision over Cub Swanson.
Tools: Burgos has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).    
Coin flip of a fight. Burgos has better striking technique, but Emmett has more power. So the key is for Burgos to avoid the power shots. I think Burgos has the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. But the key is to avoid the Emmett first round blitz.
Chirs’ Pick: Burgos has been developing at a pretty rapid clip. I think we see a better version of him and he out strikes Emmett to win a close decision.
Raquel Pennington vs Marion Reneau
Raquel Pennington
Age: 31
UFC Record: 9-6
Key Wins: Beat Miesha Tate. Split decision wins over Irene Aldana and Bethe Correira.
Tools: Pennington has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). And she has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Marion Reneau
Age: 42
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ashlee Evans-Smith.
Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted Sara McMann.
Tools: Reneau has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Pennington might seem past her prime, but she’s only 31 years old and only has 18 pro fights. She could still have a bit more mileage. Meanwhile, regression is a very real possibility for Reneau in this fight. This is a bad matchup. She won’t have the wrestling to keep Pennington down. Most of this fight will be on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Pennington has a clear advantage in the striking. She’s going to out point Reneau to win by decision.
Belal Muhammad vs Lyman Good
Belal Muhammad
Age: 31
UFC Record: 7-3
Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban. 
Key Wins: Beat Chance Rencountre and Randy Brown. 
Tools: Muhammad has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Lyman Good
Age: 35
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. 
Key Wins: Knocked out Chance Rencountre.
Tools: Good has above average striking paired with plus power (60-70). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I really underestimated Good’s wrestling. I saw Demian Maia take Good down no problem. I thought Rencountre would be able to do the same and he wasn’t. I see the same thing happening here. Muhammad goes for the takedowns and Good stuffs them. On the feet, strike for strike, it’s close. But Good has way more power.
Chris Pick: Good will eventually catch Muhammad and knock him out in the 2nd round.
Roosevelt Roberts vs Jim Miller
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 26
UFC Record: 5-1
Key Losses: Lost to Vinc Pichel
Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
Tools: Roberts has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
Jim Miller
Age: 36
UFC Record: 20-13
Key Wins: Submitted Clay Guida.
Tools: Miller has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Roberts makes a quick turn around, taking this fight 2 weeks after the biggest win of his career where he submitted Weaver. Roberts’ striking was noticeably improved. On the surface, you might say this is an easy win for Roberts as his career is going up and Miller’s is nearing the end. But Miller does still have wrestling. He might be able to take Roberts down repeatedly. I don’t think Miller will be able to keep him down, but that could interfere with Roberts’ timing and rhythm on the feet. The fight could be closer than many think.
Chris’ Pick: I still question Roberts’ ceiling. He doesn’t have any elite, plus tools. Yet. He’s more well rounded. But I definitely like his striking better than Miller’s and think he’ll keep it on the feet long enough to win by decision.
Clay Guida vs Bobby Green
Clay Guida
Age: 38
UFC Record: 15-13
Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller.
Tools: Guida has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Bobby Green
Age: 33
UFC Record: 5-5-1
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
Key Wins: Beat Erik Koch.
Tools: Green has striking that’s a little better than average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little better than average (55). 
Regression is real and styles make fights. Green has almost as many pro fights as Guida has, but Green is 5 years younger. So if anybody’s tools fade here, it’d be Guida. Plus Guida usually relies on his wrestling and pace to win fights. But Green’s wrestling is close to the same level and he’ll be able to stuff the take downs and has the cardio to keep up.
Chris’ Pick: Green’s striking is a tick better and that’s going to carry him to a decision win.
Tecia Torres vs Brianna van Buren
Tecia Torres
Age: 30
UFC Record: 7-7
Key Wins: Beat Michelle Waterson
Tools: Torres has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Brianna van Buren
Age: 26
Pro Record: 9-2
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Beat Livinha Souza and Jamie Moyle. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
Tools: Van Buren has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
This is a pretty easy fight to pick, despite the fact that Torres only loses to top #10 fighters. It’s easy because Torres is a small 115 lb fighter and doesn’t do well against wrestlers. If Torres had some power, maybe she’d have a chance to blitz van Buren and go for a quick knockout, but she has 0 knockouts in her career.
Chris’ Pick: Torres will have no answer for van Buren’s clinch game and takedowns. Van Buren is going to cruise to a decision win.
Oskar Piechota vs Marc-Andre Barriault
Oskar Piechota
Age: 30
UFC Record: 2-3
Key Losses: Knocked out by Punahele Soriano.
Tools: Piechota has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
Marc-Andre Barriault
Age: 30
Pro Record: 11-4
UFC Record: 0-3
Key Losses; Lost to Jun Yong Park.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 striker and a 7-1 striker. 
Tools: Barriault has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
I’m very confident in saying that this is a mismatch and Piechota is better everywhere. And even if Barriault really improves his striking, Piechota can still win by taking Barriault down.
Chris’ Pick: I expect Piechota to knock Barriault out in the 1st round.
Gillian Robertson vs Cortney Casey
Gillian Robertson
Age: 25
UFC Record: 4-3
Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
Key Wins: Submitted Emily Whitmire and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota.
Tools: Robertson has average striking (50) and plus grappling (70).
Cortney Casey
Age: 33
UFC Record: 5-6
Key Losses: Lost to Seo Hee Ham. Lost split decisions to Felice Herrig and Michelle Waterson. 
Key Wins: Submitted Mara Romero Borella and Randa Markos. Beat Angela Hill by split decision. 
Tools: Casey has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).   
Really close fight. Main question will be whether or not Robertson can get Casey down. I’m thinking she gets Casey down once or twice throughout the fight. Might have a chance for a submission. But it’s also possible it’s a stand up fight the whole way through. On paper, I have Casey’s striking as a little better, but Robertson has been rapidly developing and I project her striking to be pretty equal to Casey’s in this fight.
Chris’ Pick: This is more of a projection pick. I think Robertson mixes and matches the grappling and striking to barely beat Casey by split decision.
Frank Camacho vs Justin Jaynes
Frank Camacho
Age: 31
UFC Record: 1-1 at 155 lbs. 1-4 at 170 lbs.
Key Losses: 
Key Wins: Knocked out Nick Hein. Split decision win over Damien Brown.
Tools: Camacho has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Justin Jaynes
Age: 30
Pro Record: 15-4
Key Losses: Lost to a 4-1 grappler. Split decision loss to a 9-4 striker. Lost to a 4-2 fighter.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
Tools: Jaynes has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Camacho is a guy that the bookies like more than I do. Overall, Camacho is 2-5 in the UFC. He knocked out Hein, which is pretty good. But I still remember he barely squeaked out a split decision win over Brown. I’m picking Jaynes because I’m seeing this trend where fighters, especially strikers, are brought in on short notice, and they’re winning some fights by blitzing their opponent and going for the knockout early. Looking at Jayne’s tools, they’re not much different than Camacho’s. On paper, I do think Camacho’s striking might be a little better. And being that Jaynes is fighting on a few days notice, his cardio won’t hold up to Camacho’s. But I see this fight as a coin flip. I haven’t watched too much of Jaynes and his striking might be better than average.
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Chris’ Pick: One book has Jaynes as a +305 underdog. That’s a tremendous value and enough for me to pick Jaynes by 1st round knockout.
Roxanne Modafferi vs Lauren Murphy
Roxanne Modafferi
Age: 37
UFC Record: 5-4 in her 2nd UFC stint.
Key Losses: Lost to Nicco Montano.
Key Wins: Beat Maycee Barber. Split decision win over Antonina Shevchenko.
Tools: Modafferi has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
Lauren Murphy
Age: 36
UFC Record: 4-5
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Split decision win over Andrea Lee.
Tools: Murphy has above average striking (60). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Even though Lee out struck Murphy in her last fight, I did come away thinking that Murphy’s striking had improved. And that striking tool will be the difference in this fight. Modafferi impressed in beating Barber, but I think the win had more to do with Barber getting hurt. Modafferi’s wrestling might be a little better, but not to the point to where she’ll be able to take Murphy down and keep her there. Most of the fight will be on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Murphy has better striking. She’s going to win by decision.
Austin Hubbard vs Max Rohskopf
Austin Hubbard
Age: 28
Pro Record: 11-4
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter. 
Tools: Hubbard has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).   
Max Rohskopf
Age: 25
Pro Record: 5-0
Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 
Tools: Rohskopf has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
How good is Rohskopf’s grappling? That’s the question. All 5 of his wins are submission wins. 4 of the 5 submission wins came in the 1st round. But the toughest opponent Rohskopf beat had a 4-0 record. The rest were cans. Based on Rohskopf’s affiliation with Robert Drysdale’s gym, I’m going to grade the grappling as a 55 for now, but I could be wrong. I think the thing that’s most likely to happen is Hubbard having the wrestling to stuff Rohskopf’s take downs. Hubbard had a lot of hype coming into the UFC. But has gone 1-2, granted the 2 losses came against Davi Ramos and Mark O. Madsen. What I see happening is Rohskopf suffering the same fate of Chase Hooper when Hooper fought Alex Caceres. Rohskopf won’t get the takedowns and Hubbard picks him apart on the feet. 
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Chris’ Pick: Hubbard gets the 2nd round knockout.

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