Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker
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Dustin Poirier
Age: 31
UFC Record: 17-5
Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway.
Tools: Poirier has plus striking (70). He also has above average wrestling (60) and plus grappling (70).
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Dan Hooker
Age: 30
UFC Record: 7-1 at 155 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
Tools: Hooker has plus striking (70). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Yes, Hooker has been on a great run in a tough division. But the reality is that every time he gets a step up in competition against the elite of the elite, he doesn’t look as dominant. He barely beat Iaquinta and Felder. Meanwhile with Poirier, he looked good in the Khabib fight. He had his moments. And he has the motivation in knowing that if Gaethje beats Khabib, Poirier has a very good chance at getting another title shot as Poirier has a knockout win over Gaethje. On paper, this is a really close fight, although I do think Poirier has better grappling. It’s possible he could take Hooker down and submit him. On the feet, it’s close, but I like Poirier’s experience.
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Chris’ Pick: Poirier shows how well rounded he is by eventually getting Hooker to the ground and submits him in the 3rd round.
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Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall
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Mike Perry
Age: 28
UFC Record: 6-6
Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban and Max Griffin. Split decision loss to Vicente Luque.
Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Beat Alex Oliveira. Split decision over Paul Felder.
Tools: Perry has above average striking paired with plus power (60-70). He also has average wrestling (50).
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Mickey Gall
Age: 28
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Losses: Knocked out by Diego Sanchez.
Key Wins: Submitted Sage Northcutt.
Tools: Gall has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
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This is one of my favorite bets of the year. Gall is a +270 underdog two days before the fight and I don’t know why. Styles make fights. Perry’s wrestling is average. Gall is going to be able to take him down. Obviously if Gall can’t take Perry down, he’s in trouble.
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Chris’ Pick: Gall takes Perry down and submits him in the 1st round.
Chris’ Pick: Gall takes Perry down and submits him in the 1st round.
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Brendan Allen vs Kyle Daukaus
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Brendan Allen
Age: 24
Pro Record: 14-3
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat an 8-1 striker.
Tools: Allen has average striking (50). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
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Kyle Daukaus
Age: 27
Pro Record: 9-0
Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 grappler. Beat an 8-1 wrestler.
Tools: Daukaus has above average grappling (60).
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There’s a little bit of buzz that Daukaus is a top prospect. Undefeated. But when he fought on the Contender last year, he did okay. Not good enough to get a contract. And sure, he’s looked better in his last two fights, albeit against average competition. Stylistically, maybe he has the wrestling to stuff Allen’s takedowns. And on the feet, he could maybe have a chance. But there’s levels in this game and Allen’s wrestling is a tier and a half better than Daukaus’. If Allen could take down Breese and Holland, what are the odds that Daukaus has improved enough to be on Allen’s level? I don’t see it.
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Chris’ Pick: Allen is rapidly developing into a title contender. He makes quick work of Daukaus. Early take down, ground and pound TKO in the 1st round.
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Gian Villante vs Maurice Greene
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Gian Villante
Age: 34
UFC Record: 7-8 at 205 bs.
Key Losses: Knocked out by Tom Lawlor and Shogun Rua. Split decision losses to Patrick Cummins and Sam Alvey.
Key Wins: Knocked out Corey Anderson in 2015.
Tools: Villante has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
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Maurice Greene
Age: 33
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Got knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich. Lost to Jared Hughes.
Key Wins: Knocked out Junior Albini. Split decision win over Jared Hughes.
Tools: Greene has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
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There’s an ongoing trend in the UFC right now of fighters moving up in weight and having success. But the transition between light heavyweight and heavyweight is probably the most difficult. Especially when you’re facing a heavyweight that cuts weight to make 265 lbs like Greene does. So that begs the question, how will Villante’s power translate against a much bigger guy like Greene? Will his wrestling hold up against a much bigger guy? Well, Ovince St. Preux just fought Ben Rothwell. Pound for pound, I view OSP as being the more skilled fighter. But when he fought Rothwell, the size difference was too much. And I think that’s what he have here. That if they strike, it could be close for awhile, but Greene’s power is going to be too much. And even if I’m wrong with the stand up, Greene has another path in winning by taking Villante down.
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Chris’ Pick. Greene has multiple paths to win here, but I think the fight plays out on the feet and Greene knocks Villante out in the 2nd round.
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Sean Woodson vs Julian Erosa
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Sean Woodson
Age: 28
Pro Record: 7-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat Kyle Bochniak.
Tools: Woodson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has average wrestling (50).
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Julian Erosa
Age: 30
UFC Record: 5-5
Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
Key Wins: Knocked out by Jamall Emmers.
Tools: Erosa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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This is a downright coin flip fight for me. I know that Erosa is a big underdog, but I have this fight as a pick em. For a bunch of reasons. Erosa has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, but 2 of the losses were against guys with 70 tools like Grant Dawson and Devonte Smith. Erosa was neck and neck with Julio Arce in his last fight before Arce knocked him out in the 3rd round. Erosa’s big flaw is his chin. He’s very susceptible to getting knocked out. But I have Arce as a 60 striker and based on the way Erosa looked, it’s possible his striking is better than a 55. And with Woodson, yes, he had that spectacular knockout on the contender. And yes, he did stuff Bochniak’s takedowns and out strike him. But neither of the opponents were strikers. I have Woodson’s striking at a 55, but it’s possible it’s not as good as I think. And even though Woodson has the one knockout on the Contender, he’s not known for having power. I think the Contender knockout was more of an aberration. I could be wrong. But that’s my point. In the stand up, I think it could go either way, but I do think Erosa has more power than Woodson which could help him knock Woodson out. And the wrestling? Erosa might have better wrestling. He has two legit paths to win.
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Chris’ Pick: Erosa has tremendous value as an underdog and I’m picking him to knockout Woodson in the 1st round.
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Luis Pena vs Khama Worthy
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Luis Pena
Age: 26
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Michael Trizano and Matt Frevola.
Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Wiman. Beat a 4-0 striker.
Tools: Pena has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Khama Worthy
Age: 33
Pro Record: 15-6
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Losses: Got knocked out by Kyle Nelson, Billy Quarantillo, and Matt Bessette.
Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith. Submitted a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
Tools: Worthy has average striking paired with above average power (50-60). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
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This is a difficult fight to pick. On paper, you look at Worthy’s profile. 33 years old with a 15-6 record. Not much more development to go. Is probably at his ceiling. Got knocked out by 3 UFC caliber fighters between 2015-2017. So how do we interpret his gigantic upset over Smith last year? Did Worthy develop and get better? Did Smith get knocked out because of his friendship with Worthy? Was the Smith knockout another case where late replacements have success in blitzing in the 1st round going for the knockout? Who knows. The only thing I really know for sure is that Pena should be able to take Worthy down if he wants to. Pena could probably out strike Worthy with technique, but Worthy has knockout power that Pena doesn’t have. So that makes standing up a dangerous spot for Pena.
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Chris’ Pick: Pena mixes in his wrestling to stay away from Worthy’s power shots and that’s enough for him to get the decision win.
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Tanner Boser vs Philipe Lins
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Tanner Boser
Age: 28
Pro Record: 17-6
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Lost to a 5-1 wrestler, a well rounded 4-4-1 fighter, and a 17-7 striker.
Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
Tools: Boser has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45).
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Philipe Lins
Age: 34
Pro Record: 14-4
UFC Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski. Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Rosholt, a 6-2 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter.
Tools: Lins has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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I don’t see any way Boser wins this fight. I grade Lins as being better everywhere. Lins also has a track record of beating lots of guys with Boser’s profile. Arlovski was a stiff test in a UFC debut so I don’t fault Lins for losing. And even if Boser is keeping the fight close with his striking, I think Lins could take the fight to the ground.
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Chris’ Pick: Boser showed in the Ciryl Gane fight how durable he is, so I’m picking Lins to mix and match his striking and wrestling to win via decision.
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Takashi Sato vs Jason Witt
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Takashi Sato
Age: 30
Pro Record: 15-3
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by a 13-10 striker.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a 10-1 striker.
Tools: Sato has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Jason Witt
Age: 33
Pro Record: 17-5
Key Losses: Submitted by a 24-10 grappler. Knocked out by a 6-3 striker.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
Tools: Witt has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
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There’s been a recent trend where short notice opponents realize their best bet to win is to blitz their opponent in the 1st round and go for the knockout. And especially in the past month, we’ve seen a lot of upsets happen that way. I think this is going to be another. Sato proved in the Muhammad fight that he has pretty good wrestling, but I have his striking graded as average. I think Witt has better striking and more power. It’s possible Witt could take Sato down, but even if he can’t, Witt can still win on his feet. I see this fight as close to a coin flip, but when I see Witt as high as a +230 underdog, that price makes the decision for me.
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Chris’ Pick: Witt blitzes Sato and knocks him out in the 1st round.
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Youssef Zalal vs Jordan Griffin
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Youssef Zalal
Age: 23
Pro Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat a 7-0 fighter.
Tools: Zalal has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Jordan Griffin
Age: 30
Pro Record: 18-7
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler. And submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Has a majority decision over a 10-2 striker.
Tools: Griffin has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
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Going into Zalal’s fight with Lingo, before I had watched Zalal, I thought of him as just a grappler, but boy was I wrong. Zalal lacks power, but his footwork really could become elite. I’m talking like Dominick Cruz, TJ Dillashaw type footwork. So he’s a really interesting prospect. Meanwhile, with Griffin, he’s underwhelmed me. His last fight shows he submitted TJ Brown, but if you watch the fight, Brown was controlling Griffin with his wrestling before Griffin got the submission win from his back late in the fight. I’m very confident Zalal will have the wrestling to make this a stand up fight that he can easily win.
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Chris’ Pick: Zalal uses his footwork to easily out strike Griffin and cruise to a decision win.
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Jinh Yu Frey vs Kay Hansen
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Jinh Yu Frey
Age: 35
Pro/Amateur Record: 12-6
Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision loss to Jodie Esquibel.
Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
Tools: Frey has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50).
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Kay Hansen
Age: 20
Pro Record: 7-3
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
Tools: Hansen has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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There’s a few unique nuggets about this fight. Frey normally fights at atomweight, but she’s moving up to 115 lbs for this fight. Hansen is only 20 years old. Frey has several wins over quality opponents. Hansen made her pro debut at 17 years of age. She lost 1 fight as a 17 year old, the other 2 losses came when she was 18 years old. But styles make fights. Frey lost to Ayaka Hamasaki due to Hamasaki being able to take Frey down and control her. So I’m very confident Hansen, who should be bigger, despite the age, I’m confident Hansen will be able to do the same thing.
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Chris’ Pick: Hansen will avoid danger on the feet, takedown Frey repeatedly, and do enough on the ground to win by decision.