Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
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Kamaru Usman
Age: 33
UFC Record: 11-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Colby Covington. Beat Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
Tools: Usman has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
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Jorge Masvidal
Age: 35
UFC Record: 7-4 at 170 lbs.
Key Losses: Split decision losses to Demian Maia, Ben Henderson, and Lorenz Larkin.
Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Diaz, Ben Askren, Darren Till, and Donald Cerrone.
Tools: Masvidal has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
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Everyone knows where this fight is going to be won and last. It’s going to be in the clinch and in the takedown attempts. But I think a lot of people are underestimating Masvidal’s wrestling. It did improve in the past few years since he was training with Colby Covington. Maia, who has near plus plus grappling fought Masvidal to a near stalemate. Maia won that fight not because he out grappled Masvidal, he won because he was controlling where the fight was at. And Nate Diaz, who has plus grappling, got nowhere close to taking Masvidal down. Does Usman have the best wrestling in the division? Probably. Is it a plus plus grade on the level of Khabib? Probably not. If it was, Usman would have used it to try and out wrestle Covington, but Usman got nowhere with that. I’m confident in grading Usman’s wrestling as a 75 and Masvidal’s as a 70. That’s close. Like if the whole 5 rounds was wrestling, Usman would probably edge out the win. And it’s a legit path for him to win, especially since Masvidal is taking this fight on 6 days notice. You need cardio to wrestle and I think it’s going to be easier for Masvidal to stuff the takedowns early vs later in the fight. Masvidal is also under rated for his defensive striking and his fight IQ. But Usman’s striking was noticeably improved in the Covington fight. So much so, he could get close to out striking Masvidal, but Usman lacks the power. In my opinion, this fight is a coin flip. I could see either fighter winning. Usman is not going to be able to lay on Masvidal the whole fight like he did Tyron Woodley. Part of this fight will be on the feet. Masvidal could definitely catch Usman and knock him out. But I could also see Masvidal winning the first 2 rounds with striking. Gasses out. And Usman’s wrestling takes over to win the last 3 rounds. So I think this is a pick em fight, but what are the odds? Masvidal started as a +260 underdog. Huge value and the betting public has reacted in pouring all the money on the Masvidal side. 2 days before the fight, Masvidal’s price has been driven down as low as +155. There’s still value there, but not nearly as much as there was in the beginning of the week.
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Chris’ Pick: In what I think is a pick em fight, it’s an easy choice for me to pick someone I got at +246. Masvidal by 2nd round knockout.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway
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Alexander Volkanovski
Age: 31
UFC Record: 8-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes. Beat Max Holloway and Jose Aldo.
Tools: Volkanovski has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
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Max Holloway
Age: 28
UFC Record: 17-4
Key Wins: Knocked out Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
Tools: Holloway has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
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This is a razor close fight that I’m not that confident in picking. Normally, I pick whoever won the first fight in a rematch. However, I actually thought Holloway won the first fight. Stylistically, both are pretty similar. Their best tool is striking. Elite cardio. Have some wrestling. I do think that if Holloway can check some of the leg kicks and avoid damage there, that he moves better, can switch stances like he normally does, and his striking can be a lot more effective. Holloway has a better track record of knocking opponents out late in the fight. It’s also possible that Holloway has better wrestling as he showed off in the Brian Ortega fight. Maybe Holloway mixes some takedowns in against Volkanovski. And on top of all this, Holloway is a 2 to 1 underdog.
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Chris’ Pick: Not my most confident pick, but with Holloway at +200 and the very legit paths he has to win, I’m going with Holloway by decision.
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Jose Aldo vs Petr Yan
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Jose Aldo
Age: 33
UFC/WEC Record: 18-5
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Urijah Faber and Frankie Edgar.
Tools: Aldo has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
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Petr Yan
Age: 27
UFC Record: 6-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson.
Tools: Yan has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
Tools: Yan has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
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I really like the Aldo pick here. Especially with some books having him as a 2-1 underdog. Yes, Yan is good. Yes, he’s beat some good opponents. But he hasn’t fought anybody on Aldo’s level. And he lacks elite knockout power. This will be a stand up fight and I’m fairly confident that Aldo is going to have a big power advantage.
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Chris’ Pick: Aldo gets it done with a 2nd round knockout.
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Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas
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Jessica Andrade
Age: 28
UFC Record: 7-2 at 115 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Namajunas and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres.
Tools: Andrade has plus striking (70). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
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Rose Namajunas
Age: 28
UFC Record: 9-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Kowalkiewicz back in 2016.
Key Wins: Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk twice, once by knockout, the other by decision. Submitted Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Torres.
Tools: Namajunas has near plus plus striking (75) and plus grappling (70).
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Fluke wins happen sometimes. Most of the time, they’re quick knockouts. In this case, it was Andrade slamming Namajunas on her head after Namajunas handily won the 1st round. Vast majority of the time, you know me, I pick whoever won the first fight in the rematch. But in this case, I do this that was a fluke win. How many knockouts happen in the UFC via slam? They’re super rare. Stylistically, I see this fight playing out similar to the 1st round in their first fight. Stays on the feet. Namajunas is faster, more accurate. Andrade is coming off a knockout loss herself. Same level of confidence can’t be there.
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Chris’ Pick: Namajunas will catch Andrade in the 2nd round and get the knockout win.
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Paige VanZant vs Amanda Ribas
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Paige VanZant
Age: 26
UFC Record: 5-3
Key Losses: Lost to Jessica-Rose Clark.
Key Wins: Submitted Rachael Ostovich. Beat Felice Herrig.
Tools: VanZant has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
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Amanda Ribas
Age: 26
Pro Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana.
Key Wins: Submitted Emily Whitmire. Beat Randa Markos and MacKenzie Dern.
Tools: Ribas has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
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From a betting perspective, this is by far the most dangerous fight on the card. In the vast majority of books, Ribas is more than an 8 to 1 favorite. Now, Ribas is very likely to win here, but we all saw what happened to Maycee Barber back in January. Anything can happen. And VanZant is no slouch. But there’s two really big realities that make me feel comfortable in picking Ribas. 1) On paper, you could look at VanZant’s submission win over Ostovich as one of the best of her career. But if you watch the fight, you’ll see VanZant getting taken down over and over again, before VanZant was able to grapple her way into a better position on the ground and get the win. The lack of takedown defense is going to be a giant problem with Ribas. And 2) VanZant has broken her arm three times in the last four years. So how healthy will she be coming into this fight? How confident will she be? Who knows. But I do know that Ribas reminds me of Michelle Waterson, except I’d say Ribas has better striking. And we all saw what Waterson did to VanZant.
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Chris’ Pick: Ribas doesn’t mess around, takes VanZant down and submits her in the 1st round.
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Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka
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Volkan Oezdemir
Age: 30
UFC Record: 5-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
Key Wins: Knocked out Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
Tools: Oezdemir has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Jiri Prochazka
Age: 27
Pro Record: 26-3-1
Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
Tools: Prochazka has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
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This is such a hard fight to pick because Prochazka has never fought anyone near the level of Oezdemir. Yes, Prochazka has looked great. 23 of his 26 wins have been knockouts. Yes, Prochazka has beaten 7 quality opponents. But those wins haven’t been against the best of the best outside the UFC. He hasn’t been knocking out elite prospects or anybody like that. So picking this fight is all projection. And look at Oezdemir’s resume. Next to Jon Jones, Oezdemir came the closest to beating Reyes. He beat Rakic (although I thought Rakic won that fight). These are guys that are the best in the world. The difference in competition for Prochazka is just so steep. Now, don’t get me wrong. This isn’t a gimmie fight for Oezdemir either. I could definitely see Prochazka getting a knockout win proving he’s for real. But most books have Oezdemir favored around -150. That’s about right.
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Chris’ Pick: Because of Oezdemir’s experience, proven track record, and being he’s not an expensive favorite, I’m going to go Oezdemir by 1st round knockout.
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Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslum Salikhov
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Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Age: 33
UFC Record: 8-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicholas Dalby.
Key Wins: Knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Beat Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision win over Lyman Good.
Tools: Zaleski dos Santos has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Muslim Salikhov
Age: 36
Pro Record: 16-2
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
Key Wins: Knocked out Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Laureano Staropoli and an 8-1 wrestler.
Tools: Salikhov has plus striking (70) and fringe average wrestling (45).
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It’s hard to really know where Salikhov’s wrestling is at. That’s how he lost his UFC debut. Got taken down by Garcia and was submitted. The other 3 UFC wins were over strikers. I’m really surprised Zaleski dos Santos is a small underdog. The striking should be close but Zaleski dos Santos is much more well rounded. And I think if Garcia was able to get Salikhov down, Zaleski dos Santos will too.
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Chris’ Pick: Zaleski dos Santos mixes in takedowns and top control to do enough to win via decision.
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Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry
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Makwan Amirkhani
Age: 31
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
Key Wins: Submitted Chris Fishgold.
Tools: Amirkhani has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average grappling (60).
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Danny Henry
Age: 31
Pro Record: 12-3
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Submitted Hakeem Dawodu and an 8-0 wrestler. Knocked out a 12-2-1 grappler and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
Tools: Henry has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average grappling (60).
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This fight is a complete toss up. Skills wise, both fighters are close to identical. But I have 2 reasons for picking Henry. 1) The only real difference between the two is Henry has more power in his striking. When Henry fought Dawodu, it was a knock down that led to Henry’s quick submission win. Then 2) I’ve seen Henry as high as a +180 underdog.
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Chris’ Pick: The grappling is a wash out. They stand and trade. It’s close. Until Henry knocks Amirkhani out in the 2nd round.
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Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov
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Leonardo Santos
Age: 40
UFC Record: 6-0-1
Key Draws: Fought Norman Parke to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray. Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin.
Tools: Santos has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
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Roman Bogatov
Age: 29
Pro Record: 10-0
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-0 fighter and a 22-4 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, and a 20-5 grappler.
Tools: Bogatov has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
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Santos is a very unique fighter. Very inactive. Has only fought once in the last 3 years. But he’s very good. Used to be known for his grappling. But his striking has developed so much, I’d argue that his striking has surpassed his grappling. I came away from the Lee knockout thinking, okay, that was probably just an aberration. But then Santos’ knockout win over Ray was even more impressive. So it looks like the tool is for real. There’s not too much footage of Bogatov, but he looks to be a one dimensional fighter that relies on his wrestling. Now, it’s possible that Bogatov could use the wrestling to win. Wrestlers have given Santos problems in the past. And every time Santos fights, because he’s 40 years old, I wonder, is this the fight he starts to regress? Regression is a real thing. So it’s a tough pick.
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Chris’ Pick: I think Santos does get taken down, but is able to get back up. And the fight will be on the feet long enough for Santos to knock Bogatov out in the 2nd round.
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Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin
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Marcin Tybura
Age: 34
UFC Record: 5-5
Key Losses: Knocked out by Augusto Sakai.
Key Wins: Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
Tools: Tybura has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
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Maxim Grishin
Age: 36
Pro Record: 30-7-2
Key Losses: Submitted by a 7-3 striker.
Key Draws: Fought Jordan Johnson and an 11-4 striker to a draw.
Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker and a 7-1 Alexander Volkov, back in 2010. Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 33-10-1 fighter, a 15-3 grappler, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Johnson, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter.
Tools: Grishin has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
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At first glance of Grishin’s record, you might think he’s just a journeyman. But he’s more than that. He’s more of a late bloomer. Grishin’s career started 12-6. Not great. But then he went on to win the next 14 out of 15 fights against some very solid competition. He signed with the PFL and there he went 4-0-2, with a win and a draw over Jordan Johnson, which is significant because Johnson went 4-0 in the UFC before he decided to go to PFL himself. I was expecting Grishin to be a nice value underdog, but that’s not the case. As of now, it’s a pick em. Meanwhile, with Tybura, he really worked on improving his wrestling in beating Spivac. Which is probably a good idea as Tybura’s last 3 losses have come by knockout. Stylistically, Grishin is a bad matchup for Tybura. Grishin will have the wrestling to stuff the takedowns. On the feet, it’ll be close but Grishin has more power and Tybura, a weaker chin.
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Chris’ Pick: Grishin blitzes and knocks Tybura out in the 1st round.
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Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
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Raulian Paiva
Age: 24
Pro Record: 19-3
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Split decision to Kai Kara-France.
Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 grappler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision wins over a 17-4 grappler and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
Tools: Paiva has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
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Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Age: 31
Pro Record: 13-3
Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to a well rounded 19-7 fighter and a 6-5 grappler.
Key Wins: Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
Tools: Zhumaguov has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Really close fight. Both of these guys have a lot of split decisions when fighting better quality opponents. Both fighters are similar, but I’m picking Paiva because I think his wrestling is better. And Paiva is also developing at a more rapid pace. It’s possible coming into this fight that Paiva continues to unlock more power in his striking. And he’s got experience of already fighting guys with bigger resumes than Zhumagulov.
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Chirs’ Pick: Paiva gets the better of the wrestling with Zhumagulov and that makes the difference in Paiva taking the split decision win.
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Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo
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Karol Rosa
Age: 25
Pro Record: 12-3
UFC Record: 0-1
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Split decision win over a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
Tools: Rosa has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
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Vanessa Melo
Age: 32
Pro Record: 10-7
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Losses: Lost close decisions to Irene Aldana and Tracy Cortez.
Key Wins: Beat Molly McCann in 2015. Split decision win over a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
Tools: Melo has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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When Melo came in on short notice to fight Aldana, I didn’t take her seriously. I thought Aldana would easily get the knockout. But boy was I wrong. Aldana barely squeaked out the decision win. The striking was very close. Makes me wonder if Melo might have won if she had a full camp. In Aldana and Cortez, Melo was going against 65 tools. That’s a really tough way to start in the UFC. Rosa is a very different opponent. She’s well rounded, but as of now, only has 50 tools.
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Chris’ Pick: I’m very confident Melo has much better striking and she’ll easily pick up the decision win.
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Davey Grant vs Martin Day
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Davey Grant
Age: 34
UFC Record: 4-3
Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
Key Wins: Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
Tools: Grant has wrestling that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
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Martin Day
Age: 31
Pro Record: 8-3
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Pingyuan Liu. Lost to a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
Tools: Day has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
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Grant can do well against strikers that lack wrestling. So this fight is really designed to test Day’s takedown defense. But based on what Day did in the Pingyuan fight, I’m pretty confident he’ll be able to keep the fight on the feet.
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Chris’ Pick: Day is the much better striking and I see him knocking Grant out in the 2nd round.