Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier 3
- Stipe Miocic
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 13-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Cormier, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Tools: Miocic has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Daniel Cormier
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Stipe Miocic and Volkan Oezdemir. Submitted Derrick Lewis, Anthony Johnson (twice). Split decision over Alexander Gustafsson.
- Tools: Cormier has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus plus wrestling (75).
Sometimes fluke 1st round knockouts happen. Matt Serra knocking out GSP, Junior dos Santos knocking out Cain Velasquez, etc. But the 2nd fight really represented where both of these guy’s skills are. Cormier had a slight striking edge through the first 3 rounds. But the big difference was the wrestling. Cormier was able to take Miocic down. I think Cormier made some strategic mistakes. Got hurt with the body shots, sapped his cardio. And he didn’t have enough gas in the tank to be able to take Miocic down at that point. It was too late. If Cormier does what he says he’s going to do, mix and match the striking with the wrestling, I’m very confident he wins this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cormier wins via decision.
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: O’Malley has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell.
- Tools: Vera has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
I love this fight, especially from a betting perspective. Most people thought Vera won his last fight against Yadong. But the one that isn’t controversial is Vera’s striking tool is now a 70. His striking matched up blow for blow with Yadong. And with O’Malley, the jury is still out in the sense that the best guys he’s gone against are Wineland and Quinonez. He has potential, yes. But can you justify laying 3 to 1 on him? That’s steep! I see the striking as a coin flip. Either could win. O’Malley has never fought against a striker the caliber of Vera. And then there’s also the possibility that Vera’s grappling could be further ahead of O’Malley’s than I think. Maybe Vera can take O’Malley down. It’s possible. So for all these reasons, I love the value of Vera here.
Chris’ Pick: I’ll go Vera by 2nd round knockout.
Junior dos Santos vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Junior dos Santos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 15-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Cain Velasquez, and Mark Hunt. Beat Stipe Miocic and Shane Carwin.
- Tools: Dos Santos has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Rozenstruik has plus striking (70). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Coin flip fight. Either could get knocked out. And even though Rozenstruik knocked Overeem out, everyone knows Overeem was seconds away from winning a decision. That said, Rozenstruik is definitely early is his career, is developing, and should be better in this fight. I don’t see dos Santos regressing or anything. For me, it’s more about Rozenstruik taking a step forward.
Chris’ Pick: Rozenstruik by 1st round knockout.
Merab Dvalishvili vs John Dodson
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Got submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Lost a split decision to Frankie Saenz in his UFC debut.
- Key Wins: Beat Casey Kenney and Brad Katona.
- Tools: Dvalishvili has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
- John Dodson
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 135 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Marlon Moraes and John Lineker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nathaniel Wood. Split decision over Pedro Munhoz.
- Tools: Dodson has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
Dvalishvili is a very unique fighter in that he’s one dimensional, but also very successful, because his wrestling tool is so good. But he’s going to have a big problem in this fight as Dodson is pound for pound one of the hardest fighters to keep on the ground. I see Dodson being taken down, but repeatedly scrambling up. And on the feet, Dodson will have a massive striking advantage. And then add in that Dodson is close to a 2 to 1 underdog. I’m in.
Chris’ Pick: Dodson knocks Dvalishvili out in the 2nd round.
Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda
- Herbert Burns
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr. Submitted Evan Dunham, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker. Beat a 10-1 striker.
- Tools: Burns has above average striking (60). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Antonio Carvalho and a well rounded 26-7-1 fighter. Lost to Robert Whiteford.
- Key Wins: Submitted Justin Lawrence, a 8-2 wrestler, an 11-2 striker, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Tools: Pineda has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Pineda gets another chance in the UFC. He’s looked better the past couple years. But how does anybody expect him to beat a potential contender in Burns? Burns is far better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Burns knocks Pineda out in the 1st round.
Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel
- Jim Miller
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 21-13
- Key Wins: Submitted Roosevelt Roberts and Clay Guida.
- Tools: Miller has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Vinc Pichel
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Beat Roosevelt Roberts and Joaquim Silva.
- Tools: Pichel has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Pichel is a pretty unique case. His 8-3 UFC record is really strong. But he hasn’t been that active. Most of the wins have come against average competition. And any time he gets a step up in competition, he loses. But here, Pichel has a great match up. Yes, Miller did surprise me in subbing Roberts. But I know for sure he won’t be able to take Pichel down. Fight will stay on the feet. And I’m very confident that Pichel’s striking is better.
Chris’ Pick: Pichel cruises to a decision win.
Felice Herrig vs Virna Jandiroba
- Felice Herrig
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Paige Vanzant.
- Key Wins: Beat Alexa Grasso and Justine Kish. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Tools: Herrig has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus wrestling (70).
- Virna Jandiroba
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 15-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jandiroba has plus grappling (70).
This fight is going to be pretty similar to the Jandiroba vs Carla Esparza fight. Yes, Jandiroba has legit 70 grappling. But the fact that Jandiroba is a 3-1 favorite is crazy to me. Herrig’s last fight a year and a half ago was against Michelle Waterson and Herrig won most of the wrestling/grappling exchanges, despite Waterson also having 70 grappling. Close fight. Not saying Herrig is going to dominate here. But I think Herrig will use her strength to clinch with Jandiroba against the fence. Stuff the takedowns. And easily win the striking. Herrig has tremendous value at +250.
Chris’ Pick: Herrig by decision.
TJ Brown vs Danny Chavez
- TJ Brown
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-7
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Brown has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Danny Chavez
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 6-2 grappler. Split decision over a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Chavez has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Chavez is interesting because for his first 11 fights, you could label him a one dimensional wrestler. 8 wins. 7 decisions wins. But his striking has improved a lot the past couple years and he has 2 knockouts in a row over 2 quality opponents. Brown usually goes to his wrestling to win fights as well, but with this matchup, it’s likely to result in a stand up fight. I think Chavez’s striking is better and Brown’s track record has shown he can be knocked out. Then you add in that Chavez is +150 in a lot of books. I’m sold.
Chris’ Pick: Chavez by 1st round knockout.
Livinha Souza vs Ashley Yoder
- Livinha Souza
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker and a 14-1 grappler. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Tools: Souza has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
- Ashley Yoder
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to MacKenzie Dern and Randa Markos.
- Tools: Yoder has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
We found out a lot about Souza in her last fight with Brianna van Buren. Souza’s striking wasn’t at the level I expected. And she had problems with van Buren’s clinch and wrestling. And she’s going to run into the same problems with Yoder here. On the feet, yeah, Souza’s striking is probably a little better. But it won’t matter if Yoder can control where the fight goes. I thought Yoder beat Randa Markos in her last fight, but regardless, Yoder’s ability to take down a wrestler like Markos was impressive. I think Yoder uses her wrestling to get the job done.
Chris’ Pick: Yoder by decision.
Chris Daukaus vs Parker Porter
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-3
- Tools: Daukaus has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Parker Porter
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Porter has fringe average striking (45). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
At first glance, you see that Daukaus got knocked out by a 14-5 striker just 2 fights ago and that doesn’t look good. But after watching the fight, I saw that Daukaus was super close to knocking his opponent out in the 1st round. Controlled the fight in the clinch. Got a takedown. Daukaus dominated, but made the mistake of emptying the gas tank going for the finish. And with nothing left, he got knocked out towards the end of the 2nd round. Watching both of these guys, it’s apparent to me that Daukaus has the better striking. That’s really what this fight will come down to.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 2nd round knockout.
Kai Kamaka III vs Tony Kelley
- Kai Kamaka III
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Kamaka has fringe average striking (45) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tony Kelley
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Kevin Aguilar.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Kelley has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
4 years ago, Kelley looked like a very promising prospect. He was 29 years old, 3-0 pro record, and lost a close split decision to Kevin Aguilar. I watched the fight and Kelley was winning the fight going into the 4th round but gassed out. After that, he took 3 years off. Returned in 2019 to submit a tomato can and hasn’t fought since. But now he’s finally back and making his UFC debut. I really like Kelley in this fight. I know his stand up is better than Kamaka’s. And it’s also possible Kelley could take Kamaka down if he needed to.
Chris’ Pick: Kelley wins by decision.