Tyron Woodley vs Colby Covington
- Tyron Woodley
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler. Knocked down Darren Till and submitted him. Split decision over Kelvin Gastelum. Majority decision over Stephen Thompson. Beat Demian Maia.
- Tools: Woodley has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Colby Covington
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Beat Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Robbie Lawler.
- Tools: Covington’s cardio makes his striking plus (70). He also has plus wrestling (70).
Ever since Woodley got taken down by Kamaru Usman, he’s been a shell of his former self, and I don’t see that changing here. Covington’s wrestling is on par with Usman and if he wants to take Woodley down, he can. But Covington likes to win fights with his cardio. I see him putting on a crazy pace. Mixing the striking with a couple take downs here and there. And really pouring the offense on towards the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Covington by ground and pound TKO in the 4th round.
Donald Cerrone vs Niko Price
- Donald Cerrone
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 23-12
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza. Knocked out Alexander Hernandez. Beat Al Iaquinta, Eddie Alvarez, and Ben Henderson.
- Tools: Cerrone has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Niko Price
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.
- Tools: Price has above average striking paired with plus power (60-70). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Fun fight. Price has explosive tools but can be too aggressive for his own good at times. Back in 2018, Cerrone lost 4 out of 5 fights and everyone thought he was done being an elite fighter. Then he bounced back and won 3 in a row. But since then, he’s lost 4 in a row, with 3 of the 4 being knockouts. Price might not be of the caliber of Conor McGregor or Tony Ferguson or Justin Gaethje, but I do think Price is pretty close to the Anthony Pettis level. And at 170 lbs, Price is bigger than Pettis and has more power than Pettis. Stand up fight. Cerrone will probably land more shots in the beginning of the fight, but I see Price eventually catching Cerrone and knocking him out.
Chris’ Pick: Price by 2nd round KO.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Khamzat Chimaev
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Chimaev has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Tools: Meerschaert has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Yes, Meerschaert is a huge step up for Chimaev. And yes, there’s a good reason the money is pouring in on the Meerschaert side. I understand why. But looking at Meerschaert’s fight against Eryk Anders could give a good preview of how this plays out. Chimaev hasn’t shown it yet, but his striking is very good. Could very well be better than a 60. Just like with the Anders fight, Meerschaert won’t be able to get it to the ground and Chimaev shows what he can do in the stand up. The price is a bit heavy, but if Ian Heinisch can knock Meerschaert out, I think Chimaev can too.
Chris’ Pick: Chimaev by 2nd round knockout.
Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov.
- Tools: Walker has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lil’ Nog. Submitted Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Spann has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
On the feet, the fight is a toss up. Both have true 70 power. Either could be knocked out. But Spann was known as a grappler before he got to the UFC. He has legit 60 grappling. Walker has gotten better on the ground, but not enough to be able to stop Spann from doing what he wants there.
Chris’ Pick: Spann submits Walker in the 2nd round.
MacKenzie Dern vs Randa Markos
- MacKenzie Dern
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Hannah Cifers. Split decision over Ashley Yoder.
- Tools: Dern has average striking (50) and plus grappling (70).
- Randa Markos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-8-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key WIns: Submitted Felice Herrig and Angela Hill. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision win over Carla Esparza.
- Tools: Markos has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
I don’t think Markos poses any threat to Dern. As long her weight cut goes smooth, I see Dern with having no problem taking Markos down and submitting her.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by 1st round submission.
Kevin Holland vs Darren Stewart
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Tools: Holland has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Darren Stewart
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd. Beat Bevon Lewis. Split decision win over Deron Winn.
- Tools: Stewart has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Close fight. Holland at -240 is a little bit heavy to me though. Stewart does have ways to win here. It’s possible Stewart could take Holland down and control him, the same thing Brendan Allen did to Holland. And Stewart has more power, so a knockout is possible too. But I’m picking Holland because the most likely outcome is that Holland is able to keep the fight on the feet, keeps Stewart at range and uses his cardio to out strike Stewart.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by decision.
Mirsad Bektic vs Damon Jackson
- Mirsad Bektic
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Godofredo Pepey. Split decision win over Ricardo Lamas. Majority decision over Chas Skelly.
- Tools: Bektic has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 17-3
- UFC Record: 0-1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a 20-3 grappler. Knocked out a 12-3 grappler.
- Tools: Jackson has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
Jackson is a pretty good replacement opponent on a couple days notice. And dare I say, he might be more competitive than Luiz Garagorri, who was supposed to fight Bektic. I think Bektic wants to keep the fight standing up. That’s where he has a monster advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Bektic by 2nd round knockout.
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Mara Romero Borella
- Mayra Bueno Silva
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
- Tools: Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Mara Romero Borella
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Cortney Casey. Lost to Montana de la Rosa.
- Key Wins: Knocked Kalindra Faria down and submitted her. Beat a 15-0 striker by split decision.
- Tools: Borella has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
This fight is a great litmus test to show how good Silva’s grappling is. Despite losing to Moroz, I still view Silva as a future title contender. Borella has wrestling, but it’s not on the level of Moroz’s. I see Silva having improved wrestling, getting the take down early and subbing Borella.
Chris’ Pick: Silva submits Borella in the 1st round.
Jordan Espinosa vs David Dvorak
- Jordan Espinosa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out an 11-3 striker.
- Tools: Espinosa has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- David Dvorak
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Beat by a 6-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a 16-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Tools: Dvorak has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Pretty interesting fight. Dvorak looks like a quality prospect. Espinosa has a 4-2 UFC record. Both look like potential contenders. But Espinosa’s striking is the best tool in the fight. I don’t see Dvorak’s wrestling being that much better than Espinosa’s, to be able to keep Espinosa on the ground the whole fight. I see Espinosa out striking Dvorak to win.
Chris’ Pick: Espinosa by decision.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Sarah Alpar
- Jessica-Rose Clark
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat Paige VanZant.
- Tools: Clark has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
- Sarah Alpar
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Tools: Alpar has average striking (50). She also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
After Clark upset Paige VanZant, big things were expected of her. But since then, she’s lost to Jessica Eye and Pannie Kianzad, so it seem’s Clark’s win probably had a lot to do with VanZant breaking her arm in that fight. Meanwhile, Alpar fought Shanna Young on the Contender. Young has wrestling, but Alpar was still able to take her down and win the fight. I think Alpar can take Clark down too and will win.
Chris’ Pick: Alpar by 2nd round submission.
Journey Newson vs Randy Costa
- Journey Newson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Newson has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Randy Costa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 striker.
- Tools: Costa has above average striking (60) and fringe average wrestling (45).
How real was Newson’s fight against Domingo Pilarte? Who knows. His positive test for PEDs makes it hard to know. What I do know is that Brandon Davis has very average skills and Davis had no problem submitting Costa pretty quick as soon as he got him on the ground. I think Newson follows the same blue print and that’ll lead to Newson winning.
Chris’ Pick: Newson by 2nd round submission.
Andre Ewell vs Irwin Rivera
- Andre Ewell
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Split decision win over Jonathan Martinez.
- Tools: Ewell has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Irwin Rivera
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 fighter and a 5-2 striker. Lost to a 2-0 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over an 8-3 grappler.
- Tools: Rivera has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
Ewell should have the wrestling to take Rivera down, but even if he can’t for whatever reason, his striking should be better.
Chris’ Pick: Ewell by decision.
TJ Laramie vs Darrick Minner
- TJ Laramie
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 11-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by an 8-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Charles Jourdain when he was 19 years old. Also beat a 5-1 grappler and a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Laramie has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Darrick Minner
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 24-11
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-3 grappler, a 13-4 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat an 11-4 grappler.
- Tools: Minner has below average striking (40) and above average grappling (60).
I’m genuinely shocked by the betting lines here. Laramie being more than a 3 to 1 favorite is crazy. Maybe it’s because of his journeyman pro record. Maybe it’s because he’s 0-2 in the UFC. But Minner’s 2 UFC losses were against elite prospects in Grant Dawson and Herbert Burns. And Minner did okay against Dawson in the 1st round before he started gassing out as he took the fight on very short notice. Bottom line, this is a dangerous fight picking Laramie at -320. Minner will start fast and he might put Laramie in a bad spot, like he put Dawson in a couple bad spots. But more than likely, Laramie will have the wrestling to get out, get back on his feet, and Minner is a specialist with 40 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Laramie by decision.
Tyson Nam vs Jerome Rivera
- Tyson Nam
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 19-11-1
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Tools: Nam has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jerome Rivera
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Rivera has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
There’s a lot of respect on Rivera’s name as a prospect, but Nam is a horrible match up for him. Nam has really impressed me in the UFC at 125 lbs. He came close to beating both Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. Nam’s wrestling will make this a stand up fight and I’m very confident in saying Nam has the better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Nam by decision.