Khabib vs Gaethje, Whittaker vs Cannonier, Volkov vs Harris Fight Picks - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje

Khabib Nurmagomedov
Age: 32
UFC Record: 12-0
Key Wins: Submitted Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor. Beat Al Iaquinta, Edson Barboza, and Rafael dos Anjos.
Tools: Khabib has above average striking (60). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75) and plus grappling (70).

Justin Gaethje
Age: 31
UFC record: 5-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone.
Tools: Gaethje has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).

How good is Gaethje’s wrestling? That’s what this whole fight comes down. Almost all of Gaethje’s fights have been on the feet. And it wasn’t until last time out when Gaethje fought Ferguson that we got a glimpse. Gaethje had hurt Ferguson bad. And Ferguson then tried to take him down. And didn’t even get close. Ferguson was reduced to flopping to the ground, trying to get Gaethje to follow him. And that’s pretty much it on how much of Gaethje’s wrestling we’ve seen. I’m going out on a limb and grading it a 70. Ferguson has legit 70 grappling. And speaking of Khabib’s wrestling, with how the media talks about him, I want to give him an 80 on his wrestling, but I don’t see evidence of it. An example of an 80 would be him taking down a top grappler like Poirier and keeping him there. But that never happened. Khabib was just able to control Poirier. Neutralize him. Same thing with wrestler Al Iaquinta. He’d take Iaquinta down and Iaquinta would get back up. Khabib looked the most human in that Iaquinta fight. So I’m going against the grain in grading his wrestling a 75. It’s very possible Gaethje is the best wrestler that Khabib has ever fought. And then add in the fact that Gaethje has been training one on one with Kamaru Usman for months this year. I think Gaethje will get taken down a few times, but will get back up. And he’ll make Khabib fight on the feet longer than anybody has. And on the feet, it’s no contest. The few chances Poirier got to trade strikes with Khabib, he hurt Khabib. I’m pretty confident in Gaethje pulling the upset and think Gaethje at +275 is one of the best bets of the year.

Chris’ Pick: Gaethje by 2nd round knockout.

Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier

Robert Whittaker
Age: 29
UFC Record: 10-1 at 185 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice) and Uriah Hall.
Tools: Whittaker has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).

Jared Cannonier
Age: 36
UFC Record: 3-0 at 185 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch.
Tools: Cannonier has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).

Really interesting fight. Cannonier is on a roll. Knocked out a legit contender in Hermansson. On the other hand, Whittaker has won 10 of his last 11 fights. And that knockout loss to Adesanya, he looked okay in the 1st round of their fight before getting knocked down. Strikes were close to tied and then he got caught. Does it mean Adesanya is a better striker than Whittaker? Maybe. We have seen recently fighters that get knocked out early in the first fight, bounce back to prove they’re the better fighter. Stipe Miocic is the latest to prove that. Whittaker out struck a 70 striker in Till, so I grade Whittaker’s striking as a 75. I think Whittaker at even money is a great value bet. The tools are close to equal, but Whittaker will have the intangibles going for him as he’s been in these big fights before. And I think Whittaker’s defensive striking is better. And I think Whittaker’s cardio will be better. Cannonier’s quick knockouts at 185 lbs have been impressive, but what happens if Cannonier can’t get the early knockout. With the way he fights in the 1st round, could he keep that pace going the whole fight? Would he gas out? I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Cannonier knockout, but Cannonier does have more questions than Whittaker.

Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by decision.

Alexander Volkov vs Walt Harris

Alexander Volkov
Age: 31
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Wins: Beat Greg Hardy and Roy Nelson. Knocked out Fabricio Werdum.
Tools: Volkov has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Walt Harris
Age: 37
UFC record: 6-7
Key Split decision to Shamil Abdurakhimov.
Key Wins: Knocked out Chase Sherman, Cyril Asker, Daniel Spitz, Sergei Spivac, and Alexei Oleinik.
Tools: Harris has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).

Harris was seconds away from finishing Overeem in his last fight. Gassed out trying to get the finish. Overeem then took advantage. So the goal here for Harris is to correct that mistake. Volkov has 70 striking but it’s more of the volume variety. He wins with cardio and pace. But he doesn’t have true one punch knockout power. That’s going to be the difference in the fight. I think Harris lands the power shot before it gets to the judges score cards.

Chris’ Pick: Harris by 1st round knockout.

Phil Hawes vs Jacob Malkoun

Phil Hawes
Age: 31
Pro Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
Tools: Hawes has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Jacob Malkoun
Age: 25
Pro Record: 4-0
Tools: Malkoun has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Hawes looked like a completely different fighter when he knocked out Khadzhimurat Bestaev. He had confidence in his striking and flashed one punch knockout power. Compared to his fight with Julian Marquez where he was one dimensional, only focused on his wrestling. There’s not much tape on Malkoun. Probably because he only has 4 pro fights. He looks okay. But is he ready to take on a guy like Hawes, who’s rolling. Just a few fights before Khabib vs Gaethje? I think this is way too much too soon. I do think Malkoun has the wrestling to stuff the take downs. And on the feet, the truth is that it’s possible Hawes’ striking is a 60, but I’m grading it at 55 for now because I just haven’t seen enough of this new Hawes, but he definitely has more power than Malkoun.

Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.

Lauren Murphy vs Liliya Shakirova

Lauren Murphy
Age: 37
UFC Record: 3-0 at 125 lbs. 2-4 at 135 lbs.
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat Roxanne Modafferi. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
Tools: Murphy has above average striking (60). She also has above average wrestling (60).

Liliya Shakirova
Age: 28
Pro Record: 8-1
Key Losses: Lost to a 3-4 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 1-1 fighter.
Tools: Shakirova has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Shakirova is a hard fighter to grade. She’s got a solid record. Has beat a couple quality opponents, both undefeated. But she has a bad loss and barely squeaked out a split decision over a 1-1 fighter. Murphy meanwhile is coming off one of the biggest wins of her career. She has legit 60 wrestling. I just don’t see how Shakirova wins here. Murphy is better everywhere, her striking will be the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Murphy by decision.

Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba

Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 28
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
Key Wins: Knocked out Cutelaba in their controversial first fight. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Klidson Abreu.
Tools: Ankalaev has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).

Ion Cutelaba
Age: 26
UFC Record: 4-4
Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
Tools: Cutelaba has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Barn burner of a fight here with the winner likely becoming a contender. Cutelaba has some wrestling, but as shown in losing to Glover Teixeira, he can be taken down and doesn’t do too well off his back. On the feet, the striking could be close to equal, but I think Ankalaev has the wrestling to take Cutelaba down and win there.

Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by ground and pound TKO in the 2nd round.

Tai Tuivasa vs Stefan Struve

Tai Tuivasa
Age: 27
Pro Record: 9-3
UFC Record: 3-3
Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
Key Wins: Knocked out Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
Tools: Tuivasa has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).

Stefan Struve
Age: 32
UFC Record: 13-10
Key Losses: Knocked out by Ben Rothwell. Lost to Andrei Arlovski.
Key Wins: Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
Tools: Struve has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

You might see Tuivasa’s loss to Spivac on the surface and think, oh Tuivasa got submitted because he has no wrestling. But if you watch the fight, when he was taken down, he got back up, repeatedly. Tuivasa’s biggest issue he needs to work on is his cardio. He lost because he was out of gas in the 2nd round. Since then, Tuivasa has been training at AKA where you’d think his wrestling and cardio would improve a little. I’m tempted to put Struve’s grappling at a 60, but the reality is that he’s too inconsistent. Even in his last win, a submission over Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Struve was out wrestled for most of the fight. He finally got on top of Rogerio de Lima and it was all over that. So for me, it’s a 55. I do expect Tuivasa to stuff some take downs. Have a little bit better cardio. And Struve can get knocked out pretty easy. 4 of Struve’s last 7 losses have been by knockout.

Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa knocks Struve out in the 1st round.

Casey Kenney vs Nathaniel Wood

Casey Kenney
Age: 29
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Ray Borg, Heili Alateng and Manny Bermudez.
Tools: Kenney has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).

Nathaniel Wood
Age: 27
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez,
Tools: Wood has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).

Really close fight. Kenney’s hands looked so improved in his dismantling of Heili Alateng. I see this fight on the feet. Kenney could probably take Wood down if he wanted to but I don’t think he’ll want to with Wood’s grappling. Striking is close to equal but I think Wood has a big power advantage.

Chris’ Pick: Wood by 2nd round knockout.

Alex Oliveira vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Alex Oliveira
Age: 32
UFC Record: 11-6
Key Losses: Knocked out by Yancy Medeiros.
Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Beat Peter Sobotta.
Tools: Oliveira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).

Shavkat Rakhmonov
Age: 25
Pro Record: 12-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1-2 striker, an 11-2-1 striker, and a well rounded 28-6 fighter. Submitted an 11-3 striker and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
Tools: Rakhmonov has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

Oliveira started off as a -150 favorite, but the money has poured in on Rakhmonov and now it’s close to a pick em. I’m really surprised. Yes, Rakhmonov looks like a good prospect, but Oliveira is coming off one of the best performances of his career in beating Sobotta. Has an 11-6 UFC record. Still in his prime. Oliveira is better everywhere.

Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.

Da Un Jung vs Sam Alvey

Da Un Jung
Age: 32
Pro Record: 13-2
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 6-1 grappler.
Tools: Jung has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Sam Alvey
Age: 34
UFC record at 205 lbs: 2-4
Key Losses: Knocked out by Lil’ Nog.
Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Prachnio.
Tools: Alvey has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

I understand why Jung is such a heavy favorite in this fight. Alvey has lost 4 in a row. He’s got a 2-4 record at 205 lbs in the UFC. On the surface, it looks like he’s getting close to being done. But that’s not the fighter I watched almost pull an upset over Ryan Spann in his last fight. He took a year off coming into the Spann fight. He got out struck but almost finished Spann at the end. Kept the fight on the feet. And yes, Jung starched Mike Rodriguez. But his other fight against Khadis Ibragimov, he didn’t look as impressive. Submitted Ibragimov due to Ibragimov gassing himself out in the 1st round. On the feet, it’s a coin flip. But what I really want to see from Alvey is him using his wrestling to take Jung down. Not sure if he’ll do that because he prefers to strike and win bonus checks. I think Alvey is more durable and has way more experience. I’m picking him in the upset.

Chris’ Pick: Alvey by decision.

Miranda Maverick vs Liana Jojua

Miranda Maverick
Age: 23
Pro/Amateur Record: 15-2
Key Losses: Lost to DeAnna Bennett.
Key Wins: Submitted DeAnna Bennett and Shanna Young. Beat a 6-1 grappler.
Tools: Maverick has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).

Liana Jojua
Age: 25
Pro Record: 8-3
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 13-5 fighter. Majority decision win over a 4-0 grappler.
Tools: Jojua has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

I’m still not 100% sure what to grade Jojua’s grappling. Sarah Moras out classed her on the ground. Diana Belbita took Jojua down, but Jojua was able to catch Belbita in an armbar. For now, I have her grappling at a 55. Either way, it’s pretty likely Maverick has the wrestling to take Jojua down and control her.

Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.

Joel Alvarez vs Alexander Yakovlev

Joel Alvarez
Age: 27
Pro Record: 17-2
UFC Record: 2-1
Key WIns: Submitted Joseph Duffy, a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out a 12-4 striker.
Tools: Alvarez has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).

Alexander Yakovlev
Age: 36
UFC Record: 3-5
Key Losses: Lost to Nicholas Musoke in 2014.
Key Wins: Submitted Alex da Silva.
Tools: Yakovlev has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

This fight should be pretty similar to Alvarez vs Damir Ismagulov. Alvarez’s best tool is his grappling, but Yakovlev’s wrestling is a legit 60. So that means this fight will be won or lost on the feet. Is it possible Alvarez’s striking takes a step forward? Sure, it’s possible. But the more likely outcome is Yakovlev winning the striking. He should land a little more and definitely has more power.

Chris’ Pick: Yakovlev by decision.