Thiago Santos vs Glover Teixeira
- Thiago Santos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders.
- Tools: Santos has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Glover Teixeira
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 14-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Ryan Bader and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ovince St. Preux and Ion Cutelaba. Split decision over Nikita Krylov.
- Tools: Teixeira has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
Teixeira has been on a career renaissance lately, winning 4 in a row. But his last fight against Anthony Smith, he won because Smith gassed himself out early on in the fight. Smith was out striking him, but got too aggressive going for the finish. Teixeira out lasted him. But Santos isn’t going to gas out. Matter of fact, he gets stronger as the fight goes on, as shown in his close and valiant effort to beating Jon Jones. Looking at Santos’ last 2 opponents, Blachowicz has 70 wrestling. He didn’t even attempt to take Santos down. And Jones, who also has 70 wrestling, wasn’t able to take Santos down. It’s possible Santos could have 70 wrestling too, but based on his overall track record, I can confident grade his wrestling as at least a 65. That means Teixeira won’t be able to take Santos down either. Fight is on the feet. Santos has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round knockout.
Tanner Boser vs Andrei Arlovski
- Tanner Boser
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 19-6
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 5-1 wrestler, a well rounded 4-4-1 fighter, and a 17-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Pessoa, Philipe Lins, and an 11-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Boser has near plus striking (65) and has average wrestling (50).
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 8-9 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Ben Rothwell.
- Tools: Arlovski has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Well, it’s been 2 knockouts in a row for Boser. So it looks like the Lins knockout probably wasn’t a fluke and more likely Boser’s found a way to unlock more of his power. 19-6 pro record. Only 10 knockouts, which is low for a heavyweight. But 2 in a row against legit decent opponents. And let’s not forget, Boser is only 29 years old. That’s young for a heavyweight. And he’s 12 years younger than Arlovski. I’m not 100% confident in grading Boser’s striking as a 65, but I know he’s going to have more power than Arlovski. Should be a lot faster.
Chris’ Pick: Boser by 2nd round knockout.
Raoni Barcelos vs Khalid Taha
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 15-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kurt Holobaugh. Beat Bobby Moffett.
- Tools: Barcelos has above average striking paired with average power (60-50) and above average wrestling (60).
- Khalid Taha
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a 10-2 grappler and a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Taha has above average striking (60). He also wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
This is the most interesting fight on the card. Look, I understand why Barcelos is more than a 3 to 1 favorite. In Taha’s last fight against Bruno Silva, Silva took Taha down a couple times and even had Taha on his back all of the 2nd round. Barcelos has 60 wrestling. That’s the reason. But if you watch the Taha vs Silva fight closely, you’ll see that in the 3rd round, Taha got taken down and got back up quickly. Daniel Cormier on commentary speculated that because Taha missed weight and had a rough weight cut, maybe he took the 2nd round off. Taha easily stuffed the rest if Silva’s take down attempts,took Silva’s back, and submitted him. Now, the other interesting wrinkle is that Silva usually fights at 125 lbs. Silva has 60 wrestling, but Taha is much bigger. Taha is big for 135 lbs. So I think the right grade of Taha’s wrestling is 55. Based on that, I think Barcelos might get a couple take downs here and there, but I don’t think he keeps Taha on his back all fight. And on the feet, Barcelos might have 2 knockouts, in 4 UFC fights, you might ask, why did I downgrade his power? One of the knockouts over Kurt Holobough, has 50 striking. Barcelos didn’t knock him out until the 3rd round. The other knockout over Carlos Huachin, was of the ground and pound variety. I think most of this fight is on the feet. I know Taha has more power. And it’s possible I’m underrating Taha’s striking. It could be a 65. So all that being said, I understand why some books have Barcelos at -350, but it’s crazy.
Chris’ Pick: Taha by 1st round knockout.
Ian Heinisch vs Brendan Allen
- Ian Heinisch
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Cezar Fereira.
- Tools: Heinisch has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Allen has average striking (50). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
This fight is going to test Allen’s striking. Almost every fight, he gets the take downs, with the exception of his last fight, against Kyle Daukaus, but Daukaus is a grappler. Heinish has bonafide 60 striking and he’s coming off a quick knockout over Meerschart. Allen has contender level potential but I’m not sure his striking is better than a 50.
Chris’ Pick: Heinisch by 2nd round knockout.
Xiaonan Yan vs Claudia Gadelha
- Xiaonan Yan
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill.
- Tools: Xiaonan has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Claudia Gadelha
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Nina Ansaroff.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Beat Randa Markos. Split decision win over Carla Esparza.
- Tools: Gadelha above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus grappling (65).
Yes, Gadelha has really been focused on improving her striking and that’s mostly what we’ve seen from her in her last few fights. But I predict we’re going to see a return to her grappling in this fight. The only time Xiaonan has struggled in the UFC is when Angela Hill took her down a couple times. Xiaonan’s wrestling is a 55 so I think Gadelha will be able to take her down. I like Gadelha in the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Gadelha by 2nd round submission.
Bevon Lewis vs Trevin Giles
- Bevon Lewis
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Lewis has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 grappler and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Tools: Giles has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Lewis is a lot better than his UFC record. One loss, he was beating Uriah Hall going into the 3rd round but got caught and was knocked out. The other was a really close loss to Darren Stewart. Meanwhile with Giles, you could argue he has a 2-3 UFC record. His last fight, fought James Krause on 24 hours notice, Krause wasn’t even training, Krause normally fights at 170 lbs, and I scored the fight for Krause, but the judges gave it to Giles. Lewis is going to win the striking exchanges here.
Chris’ Pick: Lewis by decision.
Giga Chikadze vs Jamey Simmons
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Beat Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Tools: Chikadze has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jamey Simmons
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Tools: Simmons has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
The UFC added this fight to the card on about a week’s notice. And I understand the matchup. Simmons has wrestling. Maybe he can take Chikadze down. But we’ve seen Chikadze has wrestling too. And he’ll also have a monster striking advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Chikadze by 2nd round knockout.
Alexandr Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 20-5 fighter.
- Tools: Romanov has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-1 at heavyweight. 6-4 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Beat Adam Wieczorek.
- Rogerio de Lima has striking that’s a little above average paired with near plus power (55-65). He also has average wrestling (50).
The one chance Rogerio de Lima has to win this fight is blitz Romanov and knock him out quick. Kind of like he almost did to Stefan Struve a couple fights ago. Knocked him down seconds into the fight but couldn’t finish it. But the odds of that happening is pretty low. I expect Romanov to take Rogerio de Lima down pretty quick and it’l be a wrap pretty quick. Let’s not forget Rogerio de Lima has a smaller frame for heavyweight as his natural weight is closer to 205 lbs.
Chris’ Pick: Romanov by 1st round submission.
Darren Elkins vs Luiz Garagorri
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 14-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mirsad Bektic, but that had more to do with Bektic gassing out. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Tools: Elkins has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
- Luiz Garagorri
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Submitted an 8-0 striker and a 7-1 grappler.
- Tools: Garagorri has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
At 36 years of age, it seems Elkins striking is slipping a little bit. After seeing him get out struck by Nate Landwehr and Ryan Hall, I’ve downgraded it to a 50. But his wrestling is still a 60 and that should be enough to get him past Garagorri who’s grappling is a 55 and won’t have the take down defense to keep it on the feet. However, Garagorri only has 2 UFC fights, so if his grappling develops, it is possible for him to pull the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Elkins by decision.
Max Griffin vs Ramiz Brahimaj
- Max Griffin
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Alex Oliveira and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Beat Mike Perry. UFC record.
- Tools: Griffin has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Brahimaj has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
When you watch highlights of Brahimaj, taking guys down so quick, submitting them so quick, your eyes can tell you wow, this fighter has an elite grappling tool. But the reality is that those wins have been over tomato cans. I grade Brahimaj’s grappling at a 55 because when he’s taken on better competition, like fighting an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler, he’s lost. Rewatching Griffin vs Alex Morono, I saw Morono, who’s a legit 60 grappler, wasn’t able to take Griffin down. So even if I graded Brahimaj’s grappling a 60, I doubt he’d get Griffin to the ground. This fight will be on the feet. As long as Griffin can avoid the guillotines, he should be fine.
Chris’ Pick: Griffin by decision.
Gustavo Lopez vs Anthony Birchak
- Gustavo Lopez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Submitted a 14-2 striker.
- Tools: Lopez has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Anthony Birchak
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joe Soto, a 4-1 grappler, a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 9-1 striker. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Beat Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Birchak has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
I thought Merab Dvalishvili was going to completely starch Lopez. Some books had Merab as heavy as -900. But Lopez held his own, getting up again and again from countless take downs. Based on Merab’s 75 wrestling, I want to grade Lopez’s wrestling a 65 the way he was able to get up, but I haven’t seen enough. It’s at least a 60. Could be more. And that’s going to give Birchak fits what with him taking the fight on less than a week’s notice.
Chris’ Pick: Lopez by decision.