Figueiredo vs Perez, Shevchenko vs Maia, Perry vs Means Fight Picks - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Alex Perez

Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
UFC Record: 8-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Tim Elliott. Beat Alex Pantoja.
Tools: Figueiredo has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).

Alex Perez
Age: 28
UFC Record: 7-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
Tools: Perez has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (65).

Going into Figueiredo’s first fight with Joseph Benavidez, I was shocked by how much Figueiredo’s wrestling improved. Going into that fight, I graded his wrestling as a 60. Figueiredo’s only career loss was to Jussier Formiga. Formiga used his 70 wrestling to take Figueiredo down repeatedly, controlled him on the ground. Won the fight. But Figueiredo stuffed Benavidez’s take down attempts. The last piece of the puzzle. In the first Figueiredo vs Benavidez fight, the striking was close to equal. But the rematch wasn’t equal at all. Figueiredo completely out classed him for the short time they were on the feet. My eyes would give Figueiredo’s striking an 80 grade but my brain reminds me that when fighters lose to someone the first time, their confidence usually isn’t the same going into the rematch, so I think a 75 striking grade is the right balance. And what’s interesting about Perez’s last fight with Formiga, Formiga didn’t even try to take Perez down. I couldn’t believe it. His game plan was to try and out strike Perez, which failed. Perez has a real chance to win this fight. He’s young and developing. It’s possible his striking tool takes another leap. But I have to pick Figueiredo because his confidence has to be on another level right now. He’s got more big fight experience. And as we saw in the Adesanya vs Costa fight, that experience can really matter sometimes. And we can’t forget it’s possible to knock Perez out, as he got knocked out by Benavidez.

Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 2nd round knockout.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Jennifer Maia

Valentina Shevchenko
Age: 32
UFC Record: 8-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Katlyn Chookagian and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Liz Carmouche.
Tools: Valentina Shevchenko has plus plus striking paired with plus power (80-70). She also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).

Jennifer Maia
Age: 32
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche.
Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi.
Tools: Maia has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).

Is it possible Maia comes in with improved 70 grappling? Sure, it’s possible. Is it possible the 70 grappling is good enough to get Shevchenko on the ground? It’s possible. But it’s very, very unlikely. Maia has the weakest striking tool Shevchenko has faced Since Priscila Cachoeira and we all know how that went. Maia has to get the fight on the ground, but I don’t think she’ll be able to.

Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by 1st round knockout.

Mike Perry vs Tim Means

Mike Perry
Age: 29
UFC Record: 7-6
Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban and Max Griffin. Split decision loss to Vicente Luque that I thought Perry won.
Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Beat Mickey Gall and Alex Oliveira. Split decision over Paul Felder.
Tools: Perry has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

Tim Means
Age: 36
UFC Record: 12-9
Key Wins: Knocked out John Howard and Dhiego Lima. Beat Laureano Staropoli and Alex Garcia.
Tools: Means has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

You might look at Perry’s 7-6 UFC record and think he’s just a mid tier gate keeper. But let’s look at his progression in his last 4 fights. He out struck a 60 striker in Alex Oliveira. Good win. Then he had what I think is the best performance of his career against Vicente Luque. Luque has at least 65 striking. There’s an argument the tool could be a 70, but it’s at least a 65. Perry’s striking was close to equal with Luque’s. Justifies his 65 striking grade. And Perry also was able to hold Luque, who has 60 grappling, against the fence for minutes at a time. Justifying a 60 wrestling tool. My point is that Perry is really under valued. He’s unconventional and says wacky things sometimes, but his skills have absolutely improved the past 1-2 years. He’s not the same brawler he was early in his career. Means is a quality vet, but I think Perry is better everywhere.

Chris’ Pick: Perry by 2nd round knockout.

Cynthia Calvillo vs Katlyn Chookagian

Cynthia Calvillo
Age: 33
UFC Record: 1-0 at 125 lbs. 5-1-1 at 115 lbs.
Key Draws: Fought Marina Rodriguez to a draw.
Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho. Knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Beat Jessica Eye, Cortney Casey, Joanne Calderwood, and Gillian Robertson. Beat Aspen Ladd in an amateur bout in 2014.Tools:
Tools: Calvillo has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has plus grappling (70).

Katlyn Chookagian
Age: 31
UFC Record: 3-3 at 125 lbs. 7-4 overall.
Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
Key Wins: Beat Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana.
Tools: Chookagian has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).

Chookagian is going to need to improve her wrestling to win this fight. Because the same thing that happened to Eye is likely going to happen to her at the hands of Calvillo. Meaning take downs. I also think Calvillo has more power than Chookagian. She has multiple ways to win.

Chris’ Pick: Calvillo by decision.

Shogun Rua vs Paul Craig

Shogun Rua
Age: 38
UFC Record: 11-9-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by Ovince St. Preux. Submitted by Chael Sonnen.
Key Wins: Knocked out Tyson Pedro. Split decisions over Corey Anderson in 2016 and Lil’ Nog.
Tools: Shogun has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

Paul Craig
Age: 32
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Key Draws: Fought Shogun Rua to a split draw.
Key Wins: Submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu and Gahdzhimurad Antigulov.
Tools: Craig has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).

Craig might not have the best UFC record in the light heavyweight division, but he improved his striking by leaps and bounds in the first Craig vs Shogun fight. He went from a 50 to a 60. He also showed even better grappling in his last fight easily submitting Antigulov in the 1st round. Enough for a 70 grappling grade. Meanwhile Shogun looked really lackluster in his last fight with Lil’ Nog. In the first Craig vs Shogun fight, Craig did take the fight on 2 weeks notice. He seemed to get tired after the 1st round because through most of the 2nd round and 3rd round, he was content to be on his back going for submissions. I think this fight, with a full camp, he fights a smarter fight, uses his energy to take Shogun down and get on top.

Chris’ Pick: Craig by 2nd round submission.

Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval

Brandon Moreno
Age: 26
UFC Record: 5-2-1
Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked Dustin Ortiz down and submitted him. Also submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
Tools: Moreno has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus grappling (70).

Brandon Royval
Age: 28
Pro Record: 12-4
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Submitted Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
Tools: Royval has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).

These guys are so perfectly matched. In looking at the tools, almost close to equal. One big difference though is that it seems Royval has a much higher ceiling. He’s only 2 fights into his UFC career and I can confidently say he has 70 striking and 70 grappling. That’s very rare for a fighter to be that good, so earlier in his UFC career. And the second main difference and probably the key difference in who wins this fight is Royval having more power. He dropped Kara France a couple times in his last fight. Yes, 8 of his 12 wins have come by submission. But the other 3 were knockouts, which leaves only 1 win by decision. So it’s not that he lacks knockout wins because of a lack of power. It’s because when he drops his opponent, he usually goes for the submission.

Chris’ Pick: Royval by 2nd round knockout.

Joaquin Buckley vs Jordan Wright

Joaquin Buckley
Age: 26
Pro Record: 11-3
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
Tools: Buckley has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Jordan Wright
Age: 28
Pro Record: 11-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
Tools: Wright has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

To me, this fight is a coin flip. But at the books, Buckley is around a -250 favorite. I think largely because of his viral knockout. Buckley could definitely win here. Maybe his wrestling is better than a 55. Maybe he takes Wright down. But Wright looked so good against a much bigger fighter in Ike Villanueva. I think his striking has a real high upside. Either fighter could win this. Should be priced around -110 each. But with Wright at over +200, I’m going with the Wright side.

Chris’ Pick: Wright by 2nd round knockout.

Antonina Shevchenko vs Ariane Lipski

Antonina Shevchenko
Age: 35
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Submitted Lucie Pudilova. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
Tools: Antonina Shevchenko has near plus striking paired with average power (65-50). She also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

Ariane Lipski
Age: 26
Pro Record: 13-5
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Lost to Molly McCann.
Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler.
Tools: Lipski has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Some people might think this is striker vs striker and will be decided on the feet. But they’d be wrong. Shevchenko is easily the better striker. The drama in this fight is actually going to be on whether Lipski can get Shevchenko to the ground, similar to what Katlyn Chookagian did to Shevchenko. And it’s impossible to know for sure. Going into Lipski’s fight with Luana Carolina, she had been talking about her much improved grappling game. Carolina fell to the ground, hard to tell if it was a knock down or slip. Lipski jumped on her, their legs got tangled up in an awkward spot. And Lipski busts out the knee bar to get a rare knee bar submission. So, like I said, hard to know exactly how much better Lipski got on the ground. But the most likley out come is Shevchenko’s wrestling and scrambles being good enough to get up and the fight will be on the feet for long enough for Shevchenko to win.

Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by deicision.

Nicolas Dalby vs Daniel Rodriguez

Nicolas Dalby
Age: 35
UFC Record: 2-3-1
Key Losses: Knocked down and submitted by Jesse Ronson.
Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a draw.
Key Wins: Beat Alex Oliveira. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleksi dos Santos.
Tools: Dalby has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Daniel Rodriguez
Age: 33
Pro Record: 13-1
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a 7-2 striker.
Tools: Rodriguez has near plus striking (65). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Way closer than the experts think. Rodriguez is off to an impressive 4-0 start in the UFC so far. But he’s yet to fight someone with legit 60 grade wrestling like Dalby. I think Rodriguez’s wrestling is a 55, but it’s not my most confident grade. It could be a 50. Meaning I wouldn’t be surprised if Dalby takes Rodriguez down and is able to keep him there. Rodriguez being a -300 favorite scares me a little, but from what I’ve seen of Rodriguez, I think he’ll be able to get back up if taken down. And Rodriguez has way more power.

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.

Alan Jouban vs Jared Gooden

Alan Jouban
Age: 37
UFC Record: 7-5
Key Losses: Knocked out Albert Tumenov. Split decision loss to Dwight Grant.
Key Wins: Beat Belal Muhammad and Mike Perry.
Tools: Jouban has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).

Jared Gooden
Age: 26
Pro Record: 17-4
Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
Tools: Gooden has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

Jouban hasn’t been very active. Only 2 fights in the last 3 years. He’s also 37 years old. The possibility of regression in his tools is real. But I haven’t really been overly impressed when watching Gooden. He’s pretty vanilla. Well rounded. Solid. Even if Jouban regresses a bit, I still think he’ll be able to out point Gooden on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Jouban by decision.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Kyle Daukaus

Dustin Stoltzfus
Age: 28
Pro Record: 13-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 10-2 wrestler.
Tools: Stoltzfus has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Kyle Daukaus
Age: 27
Pro Record: 9-1
Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 grappler. Beat an 8-1 wrestler.
Tools: Daukaus has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).

Normally when you take a known quantity like Brendan Allen and match him up with a prospect making their official UFC debut like Daukaus, the prospect gets steamrolled. But to my shock, it was a really close fight. Allen barely outwrestled Daukaus in the first 2 rounds, but Daukaus battled back and out grappled Allen in the 3rd. So that’s why Daukaus is such a heavy 3 to 1 favorite. Stoltzfus is supposed to be good too, but he was taken down and controlled for a bit by Joe Pyfer, before Stoltzfus got up and slammed him for the TKO win. I’m pretty confident that Daukaus’ grappling is on another level.

Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 1st round submission.

Louis Cosce vs Sasha Palatnikov

Louis Cosce
Age: 26
Pro Record: 7-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-4 striker.
Tools: Louis Cosce has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).

Sasha Palatnikov
Age: 31
Pro Record: 5-2
Tools: Palatnikov has fringe average striking (45) and average wrestling (50).

Cosce is really hard to grade because there’s not too much footage out there of his fights. And his one fight on the Contender, he knocked out his opponent in 1 minute. So we know he’s pretty good, but how good? But then again, same can be said of Palatnikov. All of his wins are over cans. And I watched his last fight against an 8-6 wrestler and it wasn’t the most dominant of wins for Palatnikov. He got taken down a couple times. It was back and forth. There’s a bit of risk laying the money on Cosce in that him being a 4 to 1 favorite is heavier than I think he should be. But even if Cosce’s tools aren’t quite as good as I’m grading him, there’s enough margin, enough of a gap between him and Palatnikov’s tools, that he’s very likely to win.

Chris’ Pick: Cosce by 1st round knockout.