Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-2-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Tools: Vettori has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 9-2 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Tools: Holland has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
Vettori is a bit tricky to grade. I remember when I first watched him fight Hermansson, I walked away thinking, oh Vettori out struck him, probably has 75 striking now. It’s improved that much. But after rewatching the fight and looking at the actual number of significant strikes landed, the first 2 rounds were close. And Hermansson actually out struck Vettori in the 3rd round before Vettori recovered and won the last 2 rounds. And I’m confident in upgrading Vettori’s wrestling to a 70. Hermansson loves to take opponents down and has one of the best top games in the UFC. But he got nowhere close to taking Vettori down. There’s a blue print for Vettori beating Holland. It was shown only a couple weeks ago in the Brunson fight. And I’m also confident in saying that Vettori’s wrestling might be better than Brunson’s. But worst case, the tool is on an equal level as Brunson’s. Either way, Vettori can take Holland down if he wants. And he should want to because Holland has a big power advantage. I see Vettori winning in pretty similar fashion as how Brunson won.
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.
Sodiq Yusuff vs Arnold Allen
- Sodiq Yusuff
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez. Beat Andre Fili and Mike Davis.
- Tools: Yusuff has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Arnold Allen
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Beat Nik Lentz and Gilbert Melendez. Split decision over Makwan Amirkhani.
- Tools: Allen has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Love this fight. Both guys look like rising title contenders. Both well under 30 years old. I wasn’t too sure about where Yusuff’s wrestling was at, but it emerged in his last fight with Fili. Yusuff took Fili down multiple times and kept him down for awhile. And rewatching Allen’s last fight with Lentz, my eyes tricked me into thinking Allen was out striking Lentz by a bit, but if you look at the striking stats in that fight, it was really close. Thus, I’m keeping Allen’s striking tool at a 60. Yusuff’s striking should be a little better, but his power advantage will make the big difference.
Chris’ Pick: Yusuff by 2nd round knockout.
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Kyle Daukaus
- Aliaskhab Khizriev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rousimar Palhares. Submitted a 13-3 striker.
- Tools: Khizriev has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Daukaus has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
I see the lines. I see that Khizriev is a slight favorite over Daukaus. Based on that perception and how he dominated in his Contender fight, I’m tempted to give his wrestling a 60 grade. But I just can’t do it. 11 of his 13 wins are over tomato cans. He knocked out an over the hill Palhares and quickly submitted that 13-3 striker on The Contender. And the striker he beat, I graded his wrestling a 45. So I wasn’t surprised he got taken down so easily. Fight was over in 50 seconds. I just haven’t seen enough. I could be wrong, but the wrestling is a 55 grade for me right now. Daukaus though, he’s proven himself. We saw how he did against Brendan Allen and Dustin Stoltzfus. Those are two quality opponents. I don’t think Khizriev’s cardio has really been tested. I see him wearing down in the second half of this fight. I actually see Daukaus getting the finish late.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 3rd round submission.
Julian Marquez vs Sam Alvey
- Julian Marquez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
- Key Wins: Submitted Darren Stewart and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Marquez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Sam Alvey
- Age: 34
- UFC record: 10-9-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Lil’ Nog.
- Key Draws: Fought Da Un Jung to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Prachnio.
- Tools: Alvey has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Here’s my upset special of the night. And I got nothing against Marquez, but for some reason, I seem to be the low man on him. I see average tools across the board accept his striking is a 55 and his cardio held up pretty well in his last fight with Pitolo. I just have confidence in Alvey still having 60 tools. I picked him to upset Da Un Jung. And he was robbed of a win, the judges deemed it a split draw. Alvey is one of these crusty old veterans that gets over looked. Alvey should have a big advantage in the wrestling. Remember, Alvey has better wrestling than Pitolo. And Pitolo had success taking Marquez down repeatedly. And that fight was just a couple months ago. Not enough time for Marquez to get that much better. The only question is whether Alvey will want to make this a wrestling heavy fight.
Chris’ Pick: Alvey by decision.
Mackenzie Dern vs Nina Ansaroff
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers. Beat Virna Jandiroba. Split decision over Ashley Yoder.
- Tools: Dern has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has plus grappling (70).
- Nina Ansaroff
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Juliana Lima and Justine Kish.
- Key Wins: Beat Claudia Gadelha, Randa Markos, and Angela Hill.
- Tools: Ansaroff has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
This is my second favorite play on the card. I think the general public is over estimating Ansaroff’s wrestling. Ansaroff hasn’t fought in close to 2 years. In her last fight with Tatiana Suarez, she was taken down and held down. But that’s because Suarez has 75/80ish wrestling. But Ansaroff’s last fight before that, she beat Gadelha, but it was controversial. I scored the fight for Gadelha because Gadelha repeatedly took Ansaroff down. Held her down for good chunks of the fight. Well, Dern’s grappling is a true 70. It’s better than Gadelha’s. We saw Dern’s grappling held up in the Jandiroba fight. I see Dern taking Ansaroff down early and eventually getting caught on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by 2nd round submission.
Mike Perry vs Daniel Rodriguez
- Mike Perry
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Tim Means, Alan Jouban, and Max Griffin. Split decision loss to Vicente Luque that I thought Perry won.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Beat Mickey Gall and Alex Oliveira. Split decision over Paul Felder.
- Tools: Perry has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has near plus striking (65). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Perry is one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC and he repeatedly makes bad choices in fights. Some nights, he looks like he’s close to breaking through, barely losing to Vicente Luque. Other nights, he takes on someone like Tim Means and gasses himself out taking Means down and trying to get a submission. You just never know what you’re going to get. Rodriguez though, has been consistent. He got upset by Nicholas Dalby in his last fight, but who would’ve predicted that Dalby would improve his stand up so much. Rodriguez will have better cardio, better discipline.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
Jim Miller vs Joe Solecki
- Jim Miller
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 21-14
- Key Wins: Submitted Roosevelt Roberts and Clay Guida.
- Tools: Miller has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard and a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Solecki has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
This is a risky fight to bet. Solecki is hovering around -250. I’m picking Solecki, but I see value in Miller. 3 fights in, Solecki has shown himself to be a bit of a grappling specialist. We haven’t seen too much of his stand up. I think Miller will be able to get up if taken down. And I think Miller probably has the better striking. But I’m picking Solecki because I do think he’ll keep going back to the well. Keep trying to take Miller down. He’s 10 years younger. He’s going to win but it’ll be closer than the experts think.
Chris’ Pick: Solecki by decision.
Scott Holtzman vs Mateusz Gamrot
- Scott Holtzman
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Nik Lentz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dong Hyun Ma. Beat Jim Miller.
- Tools: Holtzman has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted a 9-1 grappler. Beat a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
- Tools: Gamrot has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
Gamrot arrived in the UFC with a lot of hype when making his debut. But unfortunately for him, he got a high level short notice replacement in Guram Kutateladze. Close fight. Kutateladze eked out a split decision win. I thought Gamrot won the fight though. Scored some take downs. Striking on the feet was close to equal. In either case, we know who Holtzman is. Has some wrestling. Some power shots. I expect Gamrot to do the same thing he did in his UFC debut, mix and match the striking with take downs. But he’ll have better results here.
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by decision.
Norma Dumont vs Erin Blanchfield
- Norma Dumont
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Dumont has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Tools: Blanchfield has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
I really like Blanchfield as a prospect. I think she’s elite and possible future title contender. But at 125 lbs. Now, on paper, both fighters look very similar. Could be a close fight. But Dumont cuts down to 135 lbs. She’ll be much bigger. And Blanchfield is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. And Blanchfield is 21 years old so she hasn’t finished growing into her body yet. I see Dumont using her size to push Blanchfield against the fence, wearing her down. Landing heavier shots.
Chris’ Pick: Dumont by decision.
John Makdessi vs Ignacio Bahamondes
- John Makdessi
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Lando Vannata. Split decision to Yancy Medeiros.
- Tools: Makdessi has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45) He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Tools: Bahamondes has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
I had Makdessi as a 60 striker for awhile, albeit with 50 power. And going into his last fight with Francisco Trinaldo, I thought Trinaldo would have to wrestle Makdessi to win. I had Trinaldo with 55 striking. But better wrestling than Makdessi. But to my shock, the whole fight stayed on the feet and Trinaldo out struck Makdessi until towards the end of the fight when Trinaldo ran out of gas. I’m still not sure what to make of Trinaldo’s striking and how to grade it, but Makdessi definitely wasn’t the same striker in that fight. I have to grade the tool as a 55 now. Beyond my striking grades, Makdessi is going to have problems in this fight. Bahamondes is long, will have a big reach advantage. 13 years younger.
Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by decision.
Yorgan de Castro vs Jarjis Danho
- Yorgan de Castro
- Age: 34
- Pro Record. 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Tafa.
- Tools: De Castro has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jarjis Danho
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 5-1-1
- UFC Record: 0-1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 24-5 well rounded fighter and a well rounded 13-4 fighter.
- Tools: Danho has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Danho is 37 years old and hasn’t fought in almost 5 years. So who really knows what to expect from him. But when he was fighting more regularly back in 2016, he did barely lose a majority decision to Daniel Omielanczuk. So that’s something. de Castro has looked pretty good despite the 2-2 start to his UFC career. Both losses were to quality guys. I see a ton of value in de Castro here. I see no way Danho’s striking will keep up.
Chris’ Pick: de Castro by decision.
Jack Shore vs Hunter Azure
- Jack Shore
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker.
- Tools: Shore has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Hunter Azure
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Cole Smith and Brad Katona.
- Tools: Azure has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I love the value here, getting Azure at plus money. Shore is undefeated. Relies on his wrestling and grappling. Well, Azure is going to make him fight on his feet and we’re going to see where Shore’s standup is at. I have it at a 50 right now. When means even if I’m wrong and Shore’s striking is a little bit better, there’s margin. Because I’m very confident Azure has 60 striking with 50 power.
Chris’ Pick: Azure by decision.
Luis Saldana vs Jordan Griffin
- Luis Saldana
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-4 fighter. Lost to a 1-1 fighter and a 2-2 fighter.
- Tools: Saldana has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Jordan Griffin
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler. And submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Has a majority decision over a 10-2 striker.
- Tools: Griffin has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Tricky fight to pick. Going into Saldana’s Contender fight, I wans’t impressed with his resume or what I had seen from him before. But the version that showed up was different. Saldana is tall, lean, had a big reach advantage over his opponent. Had wrestling to easily stuff take downs. Enough for me to grade his striking a 55 and his wrestling a 50. Griffin is 5 fights into the UFC. I kind of have gotten an idea of who he is and what he can do. I don’t think Griffin is going to try and grapple the whole fight if he’s not having success in keeping Saldana down. On the feet, I like the length and reach of Saldana.
Chris’ Pick: Saldana by decision.
Da Un Jung vs William Knight
- Da Un Jung
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 6-1 grappler.
- Tools: Jung has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- William Knight
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Aleksa Camur.
- Tools: Knight has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This will be a good test for Knight. So far, he’s used his wrestling to win a lot of his fights. But I don’t think he’ll be able to take Jung down. Some might think Jung took a step back, fighting Alvey to a draw, but I think that has more to do with Alvey being under rated. I like Jung’s striking better here. And I’m still not sold on Knight’s cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Jung by 2nd round knockout.
Impa Kasanganay vs Sasha Palatnikov
- Impa Kasanganay
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Maki Pitolo and an 8-1 wrestler and a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Kasanganay has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Sasha Palatnikov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Louis Cosce.
- Tools: Palatnikov has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Even though Kasanganay has had to watch himself getting knocked out over and over again by Joaquin Buckley, he’s still a very good prospect. Well rounded. High volume. Has above average cardio. My opinion hasn’t changed much on Palatnikov. His win over Louis Cosce had more to do with Cosce gassing out than Palatnikov’s skills.
Chris’ Pick: Kasanganay by decision.