Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum
- Robert Whittaker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 11-1 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice), Jared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
- Tools: Whittaker has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Gastelum has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
I know both of these fighters very well. And Gastelum … well, he is who he is. His tools have plateaued. He lacks power at 185 lbs. To me, he’s best at his defensive striking. Not getting hit. Whittaker, he could still be champion. He was looking pretty good against Israel Adesanya, but got caught. I still grade Whittaker’s striking as a 75. And he’s going to have a monster power advantage over Gastelum. I see Whittaker as a lock. He should be much heavier than -275.
Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by 3rd round knockout.
Jeremy Stephens vs Drakkar Klose
- Jeremy Stephens
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 15-17
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett. Beat Darren Elkins.
- Tools: Stephens has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Drakkar Klose
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Beat Bobby Green. Split decision over Marc Diakiese.
- Tools: Klose has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
This is Stephens first fight at 155 lbs since 2012. But it makes sense. He’s 34 years old. And missed weight by 5 lbs in his last fight against Calvin Kattar. Klose has taken over a year off. He’s coming off a brutal knockout loss to Beneil Dariush. Klose seemed to have more confidence in his striking, but got caught. I’m very confident in picking Stephens here because I think his striking is so much better than Klose’s. Maybe Klose gets some take downs here and there. He should be bigger. But I think Stephens will catch him.
Chris’ Pick: Stephens by 2nd round knockout.
Chase Sherman vs Andrei Arlovski
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Tools: Sherman has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 9-10 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Tanner Boser and Ben Rothwell.
- Tools: Arlovski has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Yes, Sherman looked great in his last fight. Maybe he’s turning a corner. But let’s not forget he has a 3-5 UFC record. And his last opponent Ike Villanueva, he’s a light heavyweight. He really had no business fighting Sherman who usually weighs in around 250 lbs. The difference in size between light heavyweights vs heavyweights is the biggest in all of MMA. And for Arlovski, he hasn’t really regressed a ton the past few years. He is who he is. Has cardio. Durable. Throws lots of volume. And he beats lots of top prospects like Boser.
Chris’ Pick: Arlovski by decision.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Jacob Malkoun
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price.
- Tools: Alhassan has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jacob Malkoun
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Tools: Malkoun has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus wrestling (65).
Where do I start with this one? So many market inefficiencies. So many realties that are against the public narrative. First, let’s talk about Phil Hawes. Really good prospect. Got a quick knockout on The Contender. Looked like an elite prospect. Has the pedigree. Well, coming into his fight with Malkoun, Malkoun was a -250 favorite. That’s how good Malkoun really is. And Hawes blitzed Malkoun, got a quick knockout. Now he comes in to fight Alhassan and all of a sudden, Malkoun is a +250 underdog?? So now we should think, oh, this Malkoun guy isn’t good and was just hype? That’s crazy. Now let’s look at Alhassan. Rewind back to 2018. Looked like a potential contender. 4-1 UFC record. Knocked out Niko Price. But then he got sidelined by some legal issues, and he hasn’t been the same since. Alhassan went 2 years without fighting. Returned to fight Mounir Lazzez. And Alhassan was out classed. The narrative after that fight? Oh, Lazzez is an elite prospect. Rising star to do that to Alhassan in his UFC debut. Alhassan’s next fight, gets knocked out quick by Khaos Williams. Not too much to learn from a 30 second knockout. But it’s not good Alhassan comes into this Malkoun fight coming off a knockout. Oh, and Lazzez’s last fight. He got knocked out by Warlley Alves. Weird. Don’t get me wrong, Alves is no slouch on the ground, but he’s not known for his striking. Alves has even lost to the likes of Randy Brown and James Krause in the past couple years. All this said, I’m not exactly sure what to grade Alhassan. I downgraded him a little bit from the 2018 version. But from what I’ve seen in the past couple fights, this isn’t the same dude. Either way, I expect Malkoun to use his wrestling to take Alhassan down repeatedly and cruise to a decision win.
Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by decision.
Luis Pena vs Alex Munoz
- Luis Pena
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Michael Trizano and Matt Frevola.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Wiman. Beat a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Pena has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alex Munoz
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Nick Newell and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Split decision over a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Munoz has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Total coin flip fight. I have both of these guys graded exactly the same. So for me, this pick is 100% based on projection. And let me tell you, Munoz’s striking was leaps and bounds better in his last fight with Nasrat Haqparast vs his fight with Nick Newell on The Contender. Haqparast out struck Munoz, but it wasn’t the total blowout I thought it would be. Munoz did land some good shots. And I almost gave Munoz a 60 striking grade. And Pena, I’ve seen a lot of his fights now, and not much development really. His athleticism is obvious. But his skills have kind of plateaued. Plus I think Munoz will have some confidence coming into this fight knowing he was able to hang with a top prospect like Haqparast. Oh, and Munoz is +125 in a lot of books. Give me that.
Chris’ Pick: Munoz by split decision.
Tracy Cortez vs Justine Kish
- Tracy Cortez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Beat Mariya Agapova and Stephanie Egger. Split decision win over a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Cortez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Justine Kish
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Loses: Split decision loss to Ji Yeon Kim.
- Key Wins: Beat Lucie Pudilova, Ashley Yoder, Nina Ansaroff, and Randa Markos.
- Tools: Kish has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Kish doesn’t offer Cortez anything she hasn’t seen before. I’d say Mariya Agapova was a way, way more dangerous opponent. Unless Kish has improved her wrestling enough to keep the fight on the feet, it’s going to be a long night for her on her back. Cortez should be a much bigger favorite than -250.
Chris’ Pick: Cortez by decision.
Juan Espino vs Alexander Romanov
- Juan Espino
- Age: 40
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-2 striker.
- Tools: Espino has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Alexander Romanov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 20-5 fighter.
- Tools: Romanov has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
It’s possible the film exists, but I haven’t really found much footage on both Espino’s and Romanov’s striking. Both are such dominant takedown artists that they’re rarely on the feet for too long. Because of that, it’s a risky fight to bet. But I think Espino’s grappling is better than Romanov’s wrestling. I think Espino gets some take downs and there’s a chance Romanov gets into trouble as he’s not used to being on his back. Plus Espino can be found at plus money, so I think his side is the right call.
Chris’ Pick: Espino by 2nd round submission.
Jessica Penne vs Lupita Godinez
- Jessica Penne
- Age: 38
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Danielle Taylor.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Randa Markos in 2014.
- Tools: Penne has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Lupita Godinez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Tools: Godinez has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Penne has a lot going against her in this fight. She hasn’t fought in 4 years. She’s 38 years old. And originally she was going against Hannah Goldy. A much more winnable fight. But Goldy had to pull out and instead she gets top prospect Godinez. The striking could be close. Penne might have more power. But I am confident in saying that I think Godinez has better wrestling.
Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.
Bartosz Fabinski vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Bartosz Fabinski
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 15-4
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Darren Stewart, a 12-2 grappler and a 9-3 striker. Split decision win over a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Fabinski has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Tools: Meerschaert has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
I very confident in saying that Fabinski has 65 wrestling and Meerschaert has 65 grappling. So this is going to be a stand up fight. Meerschaert’s striking has improved, but not enough to be on Fabinski’s level. Plus I think Meerschaert will be a little gun shy coming off the knockout loss to Khamzat Chimaev.
Chris’ Pick: Fabinski by decision.
Dakota Bush vs Austin Hubbard
- Dakota Bush
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 wrestler. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Bush has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Austin Hubbard
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Tools: Hubbard has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Yes, Bush has looked great in his last 2 fights. He took a well rounded 5-3 fighter down, got mount pretty quick, finished with a submission within a few minutes. Last fight, went against a 4-1 grappler. Knocked him out in less than 2 minutes. Those highlights look impressive. But how can I pick Bush over Hubbard? Hubbard is coming in on a full camp. Very experienced. Fought way better and proven competition. And the fight will likely be on the feet. Hubbard’s polish and cardio will make the difference here.
Chris’ Pick: Hubbard by 2nd round knockout.
Tony Gravely vs Anthony Birchak
- Tony Gravely
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 20-6
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
- Tools: Gravely has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
- Anthony Birchak
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joe Soto, a 4-1 grappler, a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 9-1 striker. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Beat Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Birchak has average striking (50), average wrestling (50), and average grappling (50).
Birchak never developed into the fighter I thought he could be, but he’s still a serviceable, well rounded fighter. Gravely will win this fight because he has 60 wrestling and knows how to use it. The odds of Birchak showing wrestling that’s improved enough to stop take downs is pretty slim.
Chris’ Pick: Gravely by decision.