Dominick Reyes vs Jiri Prochazka
- Dominick Reyes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, and Chris Weidman. Split decision over Volkan Oezdemir.
- Tools: Reyes has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Jiri Prochazka
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 27-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Volkan Oezdemit, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Prochazka has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
This is exactly why watching film, ie watching fights, is essential for picking them. You might look at Prochazka’s fight with Oezdemir and go oh, 2nd round knockout. Prochazka is going to beat Reyes too. But if you watch Prochazka vs Oezdemir, you’d see that Oezdemir was out striking Prochazka. Oezdemir was winning the fight. But Prochazka caught Oezdemir and put him out. Knockouts happen sometimes. Well, Reyes has even better striking than Oezdemir. And although Prochazka is an elite prospect, I think Reyes is the #2 guy in the division now, might even beat Jan Blachowicz in a rematch. Too much, too soon. Reyes is too seasoned at this point. Too experienced. His striking is better. His wrestling is probably a little better. Reyes gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Reyes by 2nd round knockout.
Cub Swanson vs Giga Chikadze
- Cub Swanson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 12-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Pineda. Beat Doo Ho Choi and Kron Gracie.
- Tools: Swanson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Tools: Chikadze has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Swanson has very under rated wrestling. It showed itself in the Daniel Pineda fight where he stuffed Pineda’s take downs. And it should show itself in this fight because the smart thing for Swanson to do is take Chikadze down. He can be taken down. Emmers gave Chikadze some issues with the wrestling. But Swanson has 65 wrestling. That should be good enough to get some take downs. And even if Chikadze gets up, he’ll be worried about the take downs. Hands lower.
Chris’ Pick: Swanson by decision.
Ion Cutelaba vs Dustin Jacoby
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
- Tools: Cutelaba has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 3-0 in his second UFC stint at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Maxim Grishin and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jacoby has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
One might look at Cutelaba’s UFC record and think, okay, this is someone who’s average. Upside of a gate keeper. But his record has more to do with strength of schedule. Cutelaba still has a lot of potential. 27 years old for light heavyweight is really young. 2 losses were to Magomed Ankalaev and another to Glover Teixeira. He has improved his wrestling a little. Jacoby comes back to the UFC as an improved fighter. He’s better at 205 lbs. But I’m not sure what his ceiling is. He barely beat Grishin. Cutelaba should have the better striking here and maybe more power.
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by 1st round knockout.
Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nordine Taleb. Beat Court McGee. Split decision over Tom Breese.
- Tools: Strickland has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Krzysztof Jotko
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Magnus Cedenblad. Split decision loss to David Branch.
- Key Wins: Beat Thales Leites and Eryk Anders. Split decision over Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Tools: Jotko has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Strickland has improved big time. Now, don’t get me wrong. Strickland was never bad. His UFC career started off 5-1. One of those was a split decision over Tom Breese. Then lost to Kamaru Usman. Two fights later, gets knocked out by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Now, those aren’t bad fighters. Especially the champion. But at the time, Strickland looked like his ceiling was an upper tier gate keeper. He knocked out Nordine Taleb. Then didn’t fight for 2 years. Came back to fight Jack Marshman. Beat him up for 3 rounds. Very lopsided. Then upsets and pummels up and coming contender Allen. Looks like in the 2 years Strickland has been gone, he’s got improved wrestling and has unlocked some power in his hands. His striking might even be a 70 now, but I’d like to see more from him before I grade the tool that high. Jotko is Jotko. Not much has changed. He hasn’t really evolved. I feel like he’s at his ceiling with well rounded near plus tools. The difference maker is going to be Strickland’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by 2nd round knockout.
Cody Stamann vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Alejandro Perez and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Tools: Stamamn has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz in his UFC debut.
- Key Wins: Beat Casey Kenney, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Tools: Dvalishvili has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
Does Dvalishvili really have 75 wrestling? I think so. His last fight was against vet John Dodson who had 65 wrestling. And Dvalishvili took him down again and again. Out classed him. It’s a championship grade too. But he needs to round out his game because he’ll run into trouble when going against elite grapplers like Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling. But for this fight, I think tool wise, Stamann and Dodson are pretty similar, except Dodson’s striking is probably slightly better. I expect Dvalishvili to win the way he usually does.
Chris’ Pick: Dvalishvili by decision.
Poliana Botelho vs Luana Carolina
- Poliana Botelho
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker, a 3-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat Lauren Mueller.
- Tools: Botelho has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Luana Carolina
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker and a 7-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Carolina has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).
Best value on the card right here. And it’s probably because the betting public misunderstands quick knockouts or submissions. Most people think a quick finish means the fighter is really terrible. And sometimes that’s true. But sometimes when you look at a fighter’s whole body of work, you can find quick finishes to be fluky. Look at Carolina’s last fight. Submitted in less than 2 minutes. Terrible, right? Well, Carolina slipped and fell. Ariane Lipski got on top. Carolina went for a heel hook. Then Lipski caught her in a deep knee bar and it was over. Not too many knee bar finishes in the UFC. Those things happen. So what did Carolina do before that? Fought Priscila Cachoeira, who I know has 55 striking. And Carolina completely out classed her on the feet. It was lopsided. Watching that again, I realized, I really under graded her striking. I now grade it 65 and that’s going to be enough to beat Botelho on the feet. Add in the fact that Carolina is over +200 in most books. That’s great value, folks.
Chris’ Pick: Carolina by decision.
Luana Pinheiro vs Randa Markos
- Luana Pinheiro
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker.
- Tools: Pinheiro has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Randa Markos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-10-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key WIns: Submitted Felice Herrig and Angela Hill. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision win over Carla Esparza.
- Tools: Markos has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
This fight is priced about right. Pinheiro around -175 at most books. Markos used to have better wrestling, but she’s 35 years old and amazingly had 19 UFC fights. This one marks 20 for her. Pinheiro probably has the better grappling. Might be able to get Markos to the ground. But more than likely this is a stand up fight. I haven’t seen too much of Pinheiro’s striking but based off her quick knockout win on The Contender, it’s likely she has a big power advantage over Markos.
Chris’ Pick: Pinheiro by 2nd round knockout.
Kai Kamaka III vs TJ Brown
- Kai Kamaka III
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-1 wrestler and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Kamaka has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- TJ Brown
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-8
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Brown has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Brown fought Danny Chavez in his last fight and his wrestling disappointed me. I’m very confident in grading Chavez’s wrestling as a 55. And he just canceled out Brown’s take down attempts. Kamaka is a bit of an unknown to me still. In his UFC debut, he looked great on short notice against Tony Kelley. Stuffed the take downs. 55 striking. But in the Jonathan Pearce fight, it’s hard to say if Pearce’s wrestling was better than Kamaka’s or if it was just Pearce’s pace and cardio that wore Kamaka down and finished him. I’m not sure, but either way, I don’t see Brown being able to take Kamaka down.
Chris’ Pick: Kamaka III by decision.
Loma Lookboonmee vs Sam Hughes
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Beat Jinh Yu Frey. Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Tools: Lookboonmee has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Tools: Hughes has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Part of me wanted to pick Hughes here. I think -350 for Lookboonmee is too heavy. Now I’m seeing some books pricing Lookboonmee at -400 and even -420. That’s pretty heavy. I see value in Hughes as a dog that has a chance. I asked myself, does Lookboonmee really have 55 wrestling? I watched her last fight with Frey. Saw Lookboonmee stuffed the take downs. Then thought, well, Lookboonmee used to fight at 105 lbs. So did Frey. They’re smaller. Hughes is bigger. Hughes might be able to take her down. But Lookboonmee’s last fight before Frey was Angela Hill. I thought, okay, I’m going to rewatch this fight and Hill’s wrestling will be way better. She’s bigger. But Lookboonmee held her own. Hill’s wrestling is slightly better, a 60. But Hughes’ wrestling isn’t there yet. I grade her wrestling as a 55. Lookboonmee, even though she’s pricey, is very likely to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Lookboonmee by decision.
Andres Michailidis vs KB Bhullar
- Andreas Michailidis
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 wrestler and a 9-3 grappler.
- Tools: Michaildis has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- KB Bhullar
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Bhullar has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Michailidis is going to dominate this fight. He fought Modestas Bukauskas in his UFC debut at 205 lbs. Going in, I thought Michailidis was more of a wrestler. But his striking did pretty good. Bukauskas got the better of it, but it wasn’t a blow out. And then the fluky ending happened where the fight was called because Michailidis tried to lean against the cage after the 1st round was over but the cage door was open and he fell backwards a little. Now, Michailidis is moving down to 185 lbs. And he takes on Bhullar who got wiped out in less than 2 minutes against Tom Breese. Bhullar has average tools across the board. All 8 of his wins have been over tomato cans. Zero quality wins. I haven’t seen it yet but there’s a real possibility Michailidis has 60 striking. Either way, Michailidis is a near lock to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Michailidis by 1st round knockout.
Felipe Colares vs Luke Sanders
- Felipe Colares
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over Domingo Pilarte.
- Tools: Colares has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Luke Sanders
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: Sanders has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Colares hasn’t fought in over a year. His last fight with Montel Jackson, kind of showed him to be a submission specialist. Jackson dominated Colares on the feet but kept trying to use his wrestling to take the fight to the ground. I’m not sure why. Hopefully for him, he’s improved his striking because I don’t think Sanders will make the same tactical mistake.
Chris’ Pick: Sanders by 1st round knockout.