Michelle Waterson vs Marina Rodriguez
- Michelle Waterson
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Tools: Waterson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas. Beat Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Rodriguez has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
Rodriguez is such a lock in this fight. I don’t buy into the whole Waterson is a vet, she’s fought everybody argument. Past fights don’t determine future fights. Skills determine future fights. Waterson’s striking is definitely a 60. She lacks knockout power. And her grappling isn’t good enough to control Rodriguez on the ground all fight. I think Rodriguez is starting to unlock power in her striking. I don’t think this fight goes past the 2nd round.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
Donald Cerrone vs Alex Morono
- Donald Cerrone
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 23-12
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza. Knocked out Alexander Hernandez. Beat Al Iaquinta, Eddie Alvarez, and Ben Henderson.
- Tools: Cerrone has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alex Morono
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zak Ottow. Beat Kenan Song and Max Griffin.
- Tools: Morono has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
I’m changing my pick on this one. Originally was picking Cerrone. But I have to recognize that not only is he regressing, he’s also not the same fighter at 170 lbs as he is at 155 lbs. Niko Price out struck Cerrone, but the fight ended in a draw because of a point deduction on Price. I also had Price’s graded as a 50. Maybe he improved it to a 55. The fact that Cerrone tried multiple times to take Price down and couldn’t, I have to grade Cerrone’s grappling as a 55. With Morono, he’s sneaky good. Barely lost to Anthony Pettis last time out. Striking was pretty close, but Pettis’ power advantage edged out the win. Before that, Morono beat Rhys McKee, who could be a pretty good prospect. Got knocked out quick in 30 seconds to Khaos Williams. No shame. That happens. Before that, out struck Max Griffin, who’s looking increasingly good himself. The only thing that concerns me in this fight is Morono taking it on 5 days notice. He usually has good cardio. He should win the first 2 rounds here. But the fact that Morono is a +175 makes it pretty good value.
Chris’ Pick: Morono by decision.
Neil Magny vs Geoff Neal
- Neil Magny
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 20-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Lorenz Larkin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means.
- Tools: Magny has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Geoff Neal
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Perry and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed.
- Tools: Neal has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Yes, Michael Chiesa was able to take Magny down repeatedly in their last fight and won because of it. But I think that has more to do with Chiesa possibly having some special 75 grade grappling. I’ve watched Magny so many times and since he started training at Factory X, his wrestling is definitely a 70. But his stock is down. Neal, despite getting out classed by Stephen Thompson, is supposed to be the up and coming contender. And he might be. But Magny is an even worse matchup for him than Thompson. I see Magny’s pace and relentless take down attempts will wear on Neal. Tire him out. And Magny will take over like he usually does in the later stages of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Magny by decision.
Maurice Greene vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Maurice Greene
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich. Lost to Jared Hughes.
- Key Wins: Submitted Gian Villante. Knocked out Junior Albini. Split decision win over Jared Hughes.
- Tools: Greene has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-2 at heavyweight. 6-5 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Beat Adam Wieczorek.
- Rogerio de Lima has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
The biggest jump in weight classes is between light heavyweight and heavyweight. The reality is the Rogerio de Lima is a smaller heavyweight who used to fight at 205 lbs. He’s looked better at heavyweight. Had better cardio. But Greene is a full size heavyweight. I expect Greene to do the same thing Alexandr Romanov did to Rogerio de Lima.
Chris’ Pick: Greene by 2nd round submission.
Diego Ferreira vs Gregor Gillespie
- Diego Ferreira
- Age: 36
- UFC record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Beneil Dariush.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov.
- Tools: Ferreira has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).
- Gregor Gillespie
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yancy Medeiros. Submitted Vinc Pichel.
- Tools: Gillespie has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
I’m changing my pick. Originally I was going to pick Ferreira, but I wasn’t giving Gillespie’s striking enough credit. Sure, he got knocked out in spectacular fashion in his last fight. But after rewatching the Gillespie vs Lee fight and watching it more closely, Gillespie does really well in his striking with Lee. They were about even until Lee caught him. Knockouts happen sometimes. Ferreira has improved his striking too, but I don’t think it’s on the level of Gillespie. Fight should be on the feet. I see Gillespie edging him out.
Chris’ Pick: Gillespie by decision
Amanda Ribas vs Angela Hill
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Randa Markos and MacKenzie Dern.
- Tools: Ribas has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
- Angela Hill
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michelle Waterson and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Ashley Yoder and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Tools: Hill has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Ribas has true, legit 70 grappling. She held her own with MacKenzie Dern. Took Marina Rodriguez down and kept her their for a full round. Her grappling is on another level compared to Hill’s wrestling and take down defense. Ribas also has better striking, more power. She’s really better everywhere. Combined that with Ribas’ price of -200. Love the value here. Ribas is one of my more confident picks on this card.
Chris’ Pick: Ribas by 2nd round submission.
Phil Hawes vs Kyle Daukaus
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
- Tools: Hawes has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Daukaus has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
How good is Daukaus’ striking? We’re gonna find out. So far, he’s gone against other fighters with (probably) 50 striking like Brendan Allen and Dustin Stoltzfus and done okay. He might be able to take Hawes down a couple times but I doubt he’ll be able to keep him there. On the feet, everyone knows of Hawes’ power. I think Hawes will blitz Daukaus to try and get him out early.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.
Michael Trizano vs Ludovit Klein
- Michael Trizano
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over Luis Pena
- Tools: Trizano has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 4-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat an 11-2 striker.
- Tools: Klein has above average striking (60). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
It’s not that often that a UFC commentator labels a fighter as a title contender after one UFC win, but that’s the label Paul Felder used when describing Klein’s upside. And we didn’t see too much of him. His debut fight only lasted a minute, so it’s a little early for me to grade his striking as a 65, although I’m tempted. I suppose Trizano has a chance to win here with his wrestling if Klein’s grappling isn’t the 55 I think it is. Klein at anywhere near -250 I think is decent value as he should have a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Klein by 2nd round knockout.
Tafon Nchukwi vs Jun Yong Park
- Tafon Nchukwi
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker. Beat Jamie Pickett.
- Tools: Nchukwi has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker.
- Tools: Park has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Nchukwi reminds me of a 185 lb version of Francis Ngannou. Also, his speed for the weight class is crazy. And despite all the muscle mass, he’s got pretty good cardio too. Park, is just okay. He’s well rounded, but doesn’t have any tools that stand out. Average across the board. Nchukwi hasn’t been in MMA that long, only has 5 pro fights, but he already looks like a potential title contender. And even if I’m wrong on Park and his wrestling is a little better than I think, say a 55, it’s not going to be enough to take Nchukwi down.
Chris’ Pick: Nchukwi by 2nd round knockout.
Christian Aguilera vs Carlston Harris
- Christian Aguilera
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-7
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 7-5 fighter. Split decision loss to an 11-6 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Aguilera has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 15-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Submitted a 17-1 grappler. Beat Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Harris has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Harris isn’t afraid to fight however he needs to fight to win. Dull or not. On the feet, it could be close. Aguilera has more power. But Harris will use his wrestling to push Aguilera against the fence. Maybe take him down a few times. Could be a boring fight, but Harris should win.
Chris’ Pick: Harris by decision.