Dustin Poirier vs Connor McGregor
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 19-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Connor McGregor, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Tools: Poirier has near plus plus striking (75) and plus grappling (70).
- Conor McGregor
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and Donald Cerrone. Majority decision over Nate Diaz.
- Tools: McGregor has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
McGregor showed in his last fight, he still has his skills. He showed up with his 75 striking. He actually out struck Poirier for most of the fight. But Conor has one main weakness that hasn’t gone away. And that’s his lack of cardio. McGregor’s success has been built upon quick knockouts. But when he takes on someone durable like Nate Diaz, he’s in trouble. I picked Conor to knock Poirier out in their 2nd fight. But Poirier’s chin held up. And that’s really what this fight comes down to. It’s not about the leg kicks. Yes, I know Poirier’s calf kicks deadened the nerves of McGregor’s legs. And that led to Poirier knocking him out. But even if he didn’t land the leg kicks, Poirier still would’ve won. Because McGregor’s real issue is he hasn’t fixed his cardio. And with how rich he is, and the fact that this fight is taking place 6 months after the last fight, I doubt Conor’s cardio has gotten that much better. Also, that was the first time Conor has been knocked out in his career. He really should’ve given his chin more time to recover. I’ve seen fighters come back too quick from knockouts, only to get knocked out again. Poirier is like Nate Diaz with power. Has better grappling than Diaz. Durable. Won’t get tired. It’s the worst stylistic match up there is for McGregor. Normally, I wouldn’t be confident in picking someone based on cardio. Because how a fighter uses their gas tank is pretty unpredictable. Any fighter can choose to be efficient or reckless with their gas tank in any given fight. But I’ve watched both so many times. I’m very confident if nothing else, Poirier’s goal early in the fight will be the same as it was in the last fight and it’s to tire Conor out. Wear on him. Take him down. Make him use energy to get back up. I wouldn’t call this a lock pick because McGregor does have a puncher’s chance. It’s possible he could knock Poirier out early. But it’s very likely Poirier’s chin holds up again and it’ll only be a matter of time before McGregor gets tired again.
Chris’ Pick: Poirier by 3rd round knockout.
Stephen Thompson vs Gilbert Burns
- Stephen Thompson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
- Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Jorge Masvidal, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque.
- Tools: Thompson has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-4 overall. 5-1 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Alex Oliveira and Mike Davis. Beat Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Tools: Burns has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
So before picking this fight, I did a deep dive on Burns’ grappling. Because that’s what this fight comes down to. It’s clear Thompson has the better striking. Burns would have a chance as he has more power. But could Burns take Thompson down? I’ve looked closely at Burns’ last 4 fights. He fought 65 grappler Gunnar Nelson. And the grappling was equal. Then he fought Maia, back when he still had 70 grappling. And Maia got the better of the grappling before Burns knocked him out. Then Burns fought Woodley and this is what threw me off. At the time, Woodley just lost the title so when Burns was able to take Woodley down and control him, I said hey, Burns’s grappling has improved to a 70. Then Burns fought Usman and we didn’t see them grapple. Usman probably could’ve got Burns down, but why would he want to give Burns a chance at a submission? And in the past year, we’ve seen Woodley to be a shell of his former self. So I have to downgrade Burns grappling to a 65. I have Thompson’s wrestling as a 65, but it might be a generous grade. It’s possible it could be a 60. But the betting public seems to agree with my grades as Thompson is a -165 as I write this a week before the fight. It’s not a lock, but Thompson seems most likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Thompson by decision.
Greg Hardy vs Tai Tuivasa
- Greg Hardy
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Allen Crowder.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maurice Greene and Juan Adams. Beat Yorgan de Castro.
- Tools: Hardy has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Tai Tuivasa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Tuivasa has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This is a very shaky pick for Hardy. These guys might not look exactly the same, but their skills are. I could see Hardy clinching with Tuivasa against the fence to tire him out. I think Hardy has better cardio. But this is a the definition of a coin flip fight. These guys will trade strikes and one of them is likely to fall. I’m confident in saying both of their striking is a 65 grade. But I think Hardy’s game plan is going to use his slight wrestling advantage to tire Tuivasa out first before fully engaging him in the strikes.
Chris’ Pick: Hardy by 2nd round knockout.
Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya
- Irene Aldana
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ketlen Vieira. Submitted Bethe Correira. Split decision over Lucie Pudilova.
- Tools: Aldana has near plus striking (65). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Yana Kunitskaya
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1 at 135 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Ketlen Vieira, Marion Reneau, and Lina Lansberg.
- Tools: Kunitskaya has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
I was very surprised to find out Aldana is coming into this fight as the favorite. Just looking at both fighters UFC records can raise a red flag in that. Looking at the skills, Aldana really hasn’t been challenged by someone with the wrestling and strength that Kunitskaya has. And yeah, Aldana fought ace grappler Vieira, but they traded strikes the whole fight. Vieira made the tactical error of not trying to get Aldana down. Plus I also have Kunitskaya graded as a better striker, although I’d say Aldana has more power. And I’m not super confident in giving Kunitskaya a 70 grade. It’s a shaky one. Could be a 65. But the last time we really saw Kunitskaya strike, she was out landing Aspen Ladd. Kunitskaya has 2 legit paths to win and if you can get her at + money, that’s solid value.
Chris’ Pick: Kunitskaya by decision.
Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: O’Malley has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Kris Moutinho
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 17-12 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker. Beat a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Moutinho has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
When I heard than original opponent Louis Smolka got hurt, I simultaneously felt bad for Smolka, losing out on the opportunity to fight O’Malley. But I also got excited over O’Malley getting a tougher opponent. A more competitive fight. But instead, in steps Moutinho. So I thought, okay, maybe the matchmakers know something I don’t about Moutinho. Despite the 9-4 pro record, maybe he’s had a bit of a breakout. But I watched Moutinho’s last fight with a decent opponent. And by decent, I mean the fighter had a 3-0 pro record. And … Moutinho won the fight. Knocked his opponent out. But Moutinho got hit a lot. The 3-0 fighter probably had 50 striking. Maybe 55 striking. Sadly, the 1st round was close. But Moutinho took over and won because his opponent gassed out. And I say sadly because I know what O’Malley is going to do to him. Look, the UFC wants O’Malley to win impressively on a Conor McGregor main card. That’s all this is. O’Malley has also gotten hurt a lot. Smolka was a winnable fight. But replacing him with Moutinho shows the UFC doesn’t want to take any chances. They want to build new stars. The only way O’Malley loses this fight is if he gets injured.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by 1st round knockout.
Carlos Condit vs Max Griffin
- Carlos Condit
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 9-9
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Oliveira.
- Key Wins: Beat Court McGee.
- Tools: Condit has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Max Griffin
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Alex Oliveira and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry.
- Tools: Griffin has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I have both guys grade exactly the same except Condit has some grappling whereas Griffin doesn’t. Only difference. So we really have to base this pick on projection, which I don’t like doing. But Griffin has been having a breakout of sorts his last 2 fights. He seems to have unlocked some power. With Condit, yeah, he’s won 2 in a row too, but they were over Court McGee and Matt Brown. I think it’s likely that Griffin’s strikes are going to do way more damage.
Chris’ Pick: Griffin by decision.
Michel Pereira vs Niko Price
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Submitted an 8-2 striker. Beat Khaos Williams.
- Tools: Pereira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Niko Price
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.
- Tools: Price has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Pereira seemed to have a breakout of sorts when he fought Zelim Imadaev, by out striking him by more than a 4 to 1 clip. Pereira was just really hard to hit. Then he fought Williams and I think that match up really showed where his skills are at. Williams actually out struck Pereira, but not by much, giving Pereira a 60 striking grade, to pair with his 60 wrestling. Price is a known commodity. All 6 of his UFC wins are finishes. Some over some good names like Brown and Means. And he only loses to top guys, except for Abdul Razak Alhassan, who knocked Price out in 43 seconds. Quick knockouts happen sometimes. Price also should have beat Donald Cerrone, but he didn’t because he got a point taken away for poking Cerrone in the eye. Based on what I’ve seen from both guys, Price is the better striker and I’m pretty confident he’ll knock Pereira out.
Chris’ Pick: Price by 2nd round knockout.
Dricus du Plessis vs Trevin Giles
- Dricus du Plessis
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter.
- Tools: du Plessis has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Tools: Giles has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Absolute coin flip fight and it’s priced as such with many books pegging it as a pick em. Giles has looked better as of late, but he barely beat Dolidze. I actually scored that fight for Dolidze. I’m pretty confident Giles is well rounded with 55 tools. Du Plessis is the big question mark. And he’s a good example why I watch previous fights. My memory said du Plessis dominated in his UFC debut with Markus Perez. Knocked him out in the 1st round. I was ready to grade his striking a 60. But I rewatched it, and the striking was pretty close to even. And it’s even possible you could say Perez was slightly ahead in trades. And it’s even possible that du Plessis got off to a slow start because of the octagon jitters. For now, I’m grading du Plessis with 55 tools to be safe. It’s possible he’s better than that and it’s enough for me to project du Plessis to win.
Chris’ Pick: du Plessis by decision.
Ryan Hall vs Ilia Topuria
- Ryan Hall
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Beat Darren Elkins.
- Tools: Hall has above average striking (60) and has near plus grappling (65).
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 grappler and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Damon Jackson and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Youssef Zalal.
- Tools: Topuria has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
Hall is one of the most enigmatic fighters in the UFC. He’s incredibly tough to grade. He’s only fought 4 times in the last 6 years. He’s 36 years old. On paper, he looks like he’s probably on his way out. He had beat average guys like Artem Lobov. Beat BJ Penn and Gray Maynard who were both way past their prime. But then in his last fight, he takes on a quality fighter in Elkins. Hall’s grappling is a 65. He got the better of the grappling. But he came in with improved striking. He even dropped Elkins several times. But it wasn’t with combos. He did it with spinning stuff or big looping shots. Topuria looks like he might be unlocking KO power as he’s coming off a knockout over Jackson. But it was only his 2nd career knockout. But really, who knows who’s going to win this fight because who knows how Hall is going to look. But I’m going to pick Topuria because I do think he’ll land more volume in the striking.
Chris’ Pick: Topuria by split decision.
Jessica Eye vs Jennifer Maia
- Jessica Eye
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3 in the UFC at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Viviane Araujo and Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision win over Katlyn Chookagian.
- Tools: Eye has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Jennifer Maia
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi.
- Tools: Maia has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus grappling (70).
Maia is the first woman to win a round against Valentina Shevchenko in a long time. And that’s because after losing to Katlyn Chookagian, Maia came into the Calderwood fight with improved 70 grappling. Eye has pretty much stayed the same fighter. 65 striking. 55 power. 60 wrestling. She’s been consistent. Although in her last fight with Calderwood, she got out struck pretty bad and part of me was wanting to downgrade the striking to a 60, but I’m not ready to do that yet. She’s been too consistent in her other fights. But the real problem for Eye here is that I see Maia doing the exact same thing Cynthia Calvillo did to her which is take her down and be able to control her there.
Chris’ Pick: Maia by decision.
Omari Akhmedov vs Brad Tavares
- Omari Akhmedov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Marvin Vettori to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tom Breese. Beat Ian Heinisch and Zak Cummings.
- Tools: Akhmedov has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou.
- Tools: Tavares has above average striking paired with average power (60-50) and near plus wrestling (65).
Tavares surprised me in his last fight. He’s kind of plateaued on the striking. Lots of fights in the UFC. He is who he is. But his last fight with Antonio Carlos Jr, he showed improved wrestling. Carlos Jr got nowhere close to taking him down. First time I’ve seen an improved Tavares in awhile. And his new 65 wrestling tool will be able to stuff Akhmedov’s take downs. But I got to give Akhmedov some credit too. I’ve slightly been under rating his striking. Since he moved up to 185 lbs, he barely lost a stand up battle with Marvin Vettori, lost a majority decision. Out struck a 60 striker in Heinisch. And he also got the better of the striking with a 60 striker in Chris Weidman. I think it’s even possible the striking tool could be close to a 70, but I’m not sure. I’m pretty sure it’s at least a 65. I’m pretty surprised Akhmedov is the underdog here. Great value.
Chris’ Pick: Akhmedov by decision.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Jerome Rivera
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to a well rounded 19-7 fighter and a 6-5 grappler.
- Key Wins: Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
- Tools: Zhumagulov has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Jerome Rivera
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Tools: Rivera has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Rivera is better than his record. Tyson Nam and Francisco Figueiredo are really good. He gets another doozy of an opponent here. And I’d also argue Zhumagulov is much better than his win indicates. Even though he’s started 0-2 in the UFC, he really could have won both fights. Both were very close decisions. And he also has wins over current UFC fighters Tagir Ulanbekov and Tyson Nam. His significant power advantage over Rivera is why he’s -375 in a lot of books. The price is a little heavier than I’d like, but it’s still very likely Zhumagulov wins.
Chris’ Pick: Zhumagulov by 2nd round knockout.
Alen Amedovski vs Yaozong Hu
- Alen Amedovski
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by John Phillips.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, another well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Amedovski has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Yaozong Hu
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Cyril Asker and Rashad Coulter.
- Tools: Yaozong has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
For the UFC to book Amedovski against Krzysztof Jotko in his UFC debut shows the confidence the organization has in him. Amedovski did okay in the stand up, but got taken down repeatedly and couldn’t get up. No shame there. Amedovski’s 2nd UFC fight was meant to be a soft landing with John Phillips, but Phillips knocked him out in 16 seconds. He finally returns after a near 2 year lay off. Yaozong is an Olympic silver medalist wrestler. But he hasn’t really looked the part in the UFC yet. Granted, he made his debut with only 2 pro fights. His last one against Rashad Coulter, I could only grade his wrestling a 50. Average. But he hasn’t fought in 2 and a half years. He’s 26 years old now. And now he’s cutting down to 185 lbs for the first time. You’d think he’s going to come in improved, but who knows how much. This is a tough fight to pick because both of these guys haven’t fought in a long time. Who knows how improved they gotten. Yoazong will be bigger at middleweight. Maybe his wrestling is more effcetive. Maybe he can take Amedovski down just like Jotko did. It’s possible. But my best educated projection is maybe Yaozong improves his wrestling to a 55. Not good enough to keep Amedovski down. And even if Yaozong’s striking improves, there should be enough margin for Amedovski to get the better of him.
Chris’ Pick: Amedovski by decision.