Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland
- Uriah Hall
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 13-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Split decision over Antonio Carlos Jr.
- Tools: Hall has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Krzysztof Jotko and Court McGee. Split decision over Tom Breese.
- Tools: Strickland has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
I’m really glad that I got to watch Strickland against a well known commodity like Jotko to really gauge the improvement in his tools. And yeah, he’s for real. Jotko has 65 striking and 65 wrestling. Jotko didn’t even try to take him down. And that’s telling because on the feet, Jotko got pieced up. I’m talking about Strickland out landing at almost a 2 to 1 clip. It was to the point where I’m almost considering grading Strickland’s striking a 75 or downgrading Jotko’s striking to a 60, but I’m not sure. What I am sure is that at the very least, I can grade Strickland’s striking as a 70. The other huge thing that has changed for Strickland is that he’s now fighting at middleweight and he looks like a different guy. And he wasn’t a bad fighter at 170 lbs. He has a 23-3 pro record and his only 3 losses were to Kamaru Usman, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Quality guys. WIth Hall, it’s really hard to gague how much improvement he’s made the past couple years at Fortis. He only fought once last year. Knocked out Anderson Silva. But the fight was pretty slow until the knockout happened, and Silva’s striking was probably at a 60 going into that fight. Then there was the Chris Weidman fight where Weidman broke his leg 17 seconds into the fight. So that’s my only concern in picking Strickland. We really don’t know how much Hall has gotten better. But I make my picks based off of what we do know, not projection. And based on that, I have Strickland as the better striker. But also, I expect him to have way better cardio. I see Hall getting tired towards the championship rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by 4th round knockout.
Rani Yahya vs Kyung Ho Kang
- Rani Yahya
- Age: 36
- UFC/WEC Record: 16-7-1
- Key Draws: Fought Enrique Barzola to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Joe Soto.
- Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders.
- Tools: Yahya has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Kyung Ho Kang
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over Pingyuan Liu.
- Tools: Ho Kang has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Both of these guys are hard to grade because of how inactive they’ve been. Ho Kang hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. Yahya has been fighting once a year since 2018, although this match up will be his 2nd fight of 2021. I’m pretty sure that Yahya’s grappling tool is a 65. His last fight with Ray Rodriguez was the best he’s been in a while, dominating a 55 grappler in Rodriguez. I’m pretty sure Ho Kang has 60 wrestling. But it might be a 65. Meaning that Yahya should get some take downs here and there, but Ho Kang will be able to get back up. On the feet, I’m very confident Ho Kang has the better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Ho Kang by decision.
Cheyanne Buys vs Gloria de Paula
- Cheyanne Buys
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 striker.
- Tools: Buys has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Gloria de Paula
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: de Paula has above average striking (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
I was originally going to pick de Paula but I’m changing my pick to Buys because I forgot how bad de Paula’s grappling is. She took on Jinh Yu Frey, who has 55 wrestling. Got taken down. Couldn’t get up. And I know Buys has 55 wrestling based on how she did with Montserrat Conejo. My only concern in picking Buys is that she she prefers to stand and strike in fights, but I think de Paula will get the better of her there. Hopefully, for my sake, she decides to take de Paula down.
Chris’ Pick: Buys by decision.
Jared Gooden vs Niklas Stolze
- Jared Gooden
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
- Tools: Gooden has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Niklas Stolze
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to an 11-12 grappler in 2017.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-2 striker.
- Tools: Stolze has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average grappling (60).
Stolze is pretty similar to Gooden’s last opponent Abubakar Nurmagomedov. 55 striking. 60 grappling, although Abubakar is more of a wrestler. I see this fight going pretty similar. Plus Gooden is taking this fight on less than 1 week’s notice vs Stolze who’s had a full camp. One of Gooden’s best attributes is his cardio, but it won’t be as strong here.
Chris’ Pick: Stolze by decision.
Bryan Barbarena vs Jason Witt
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Randy Brown. Lost to Chad Laprise.
- Key Wins: Beat Warlley Alves.
- Tools: Barberena has above average (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jason Witt
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 18-7
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Matt Semelsberger and a 6-3 striker. Submitted by a 24-10 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter and a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Tools: Witt has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Witt is who he is. 34 years old. 25 pro fights. Has 55 wrestling. Rest of his tools are average. I don’t see how he gets it done with Barbarena who’s fought way tougher competition. Witt’s best tool is his wrestling. He won’t be able to use it here.
Chris’ Pick: Barbarena by 2nd round knockout.
Collin Anglin vs Melsik Baghdasaryan
- Collin Anglin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-0 striker.
- Tools: Anglin has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Melsik Baghdasaryan
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Baghdasaryan has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
After watching the 1st round of Baghdasaryan’s fight on The Contender with Dennis Buzukja, it seemed like a guarantee that Baghdasaryan would run out of gas and lose this fight. He blitzed way too hard going for the finish. But surprisingly, he settled down in the 2nd, was way more efficient with his striking, and amazingly at the end of the fight, seemed like the fresher fighter. Which is really important in this fight with Anglin because Anglin won his last fight with cardio. Assuming Baghdasaryan doesn’t gas himself out, he should have the better striking. And I think Baghdasaryan should be heavier than where he’s priced at right now at -150.
Chris’ Pick: Baghdasaryan by decision.
Chris Greutzemacher vs Rafa Garcia
- Chris Gruetzemacher
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov.
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Greutzemacher has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Rafa Garcia
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 10-3 striker. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Garcia has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
From the eye test, I wanted to give Garcia’s striking a 60, from what I saw him do with Nasrat Haqparast. But looking at the number of strikes landed, it’s got to be a 55. And the shots he landed looked powerful. Yet, he only has 1 career knockout over 11 wins so the power has to be a 45. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Garcia’s striking takes a leap forward here. I know Greutzemacher has 50 striking. He got pieced up by Alexander Hernandez in his last fight. He landed almost no strikes. I’m pretty confident in Garcia winning here.
Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.
Kai Kamaka III vs Danny Chavez
- Kai Kamaka III
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to TJ Brown.
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-1 wrestler and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Kamaka has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Danny Chavez
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 6-2 grappler. Split decision over a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Chavez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Really close fight. I have both fighters graded exactly the same except for one difference and that’s the power. I see this fight playing out on the feet. Strikes landed will be close to equal. But Chavez should land the more powerful, impactful shots.
Chris’ Pick: Chavez by decision.
Jinh Yu Frey vs Ashley Yoder
- Jinh Yu Frey
- Age: 36
- Pro/Amateur Record: 13-8
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision loss to Jodie Esquibel.
- Key Wins: Beat Gloria de Paula, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Tools: Frey has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ashley Yoder
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to MacKenzie Dern and Randa Markos.
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Granger.
- Tools: Yoder has striking that’s a little above average (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Chris’ Pick: Yoder by split decision.
Ryan Benoit vs Zarrukh Adashev
- Ryan Benoit
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Josh Sampo and Ben Nguyen. Split decision loss to Heili Alateng.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sergio Pettis.
- Tools: Benoit has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
- Zarrukh Adashev
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 3-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler in his pro debut in 2015.
- Tools: Adashev has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
I’m not sure what happened with Benoit in his last fight with Tim Elliott. He was looking good. I had him as a 60 striker going into that fight. But Elliott surprisingly out struck him. So has Elliott elevated his striking game to a 65? Or is Benoit’s stand up closer to a 55. I’m not confident, but for now, I’m downgrading his striking to a 55. But I am confident in his wrestling being a 60. As for Adashev, he lost to Su Mudaerji last time out, but he did much better in the 2nd half of the fight once he figured out how to beat Su’s reach and get on the inside. Adashev’s striking could be a 60, but just like Benoit, I have the striking tool as a 55 for now. But I’m picking Benoit because he’s going to have a big wrestling advantage and all he has to do is use it. Which is no lock because he usually likes to stand and trade.
Chris’ Pick: Benoit by decision.
Orion Cosce vs Philip Rowe
- Orion Cosce
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Orion Cosce has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
- Philip Rowe
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 grappler.
- Tools: Rowe has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Rowe reminds me a lot of Cosce’s last opponent, Matt Dixon. Except Rowe is more of a grappler than a wrestler. But I do think Rowe’s striking is a little better than Dixon’s. I think for Cosce to win this fight, he’s got to really push the pace like he did with Dixon. And hope that Rowe starts to tire towards the end of the fight. Cosce should be slightly better on the ground. Cosce is a 2 to 1 favorite in a lot of books, but in my opinion, it’s a way closer fight than that. I think Cosce should be priced closer to -125.
Chris’ Pick: Cosce by split decision.