Lewis vs Gane, Aldo vs Munoz, Chiesa vs Luque Fight Picks – UFC 265 – August 7, 2021

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane

  • Derrick Lewis
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 16-5
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
  • Tools: Lewis has near plus striking paired with near plus plus power (65-75). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Ciryl Gane
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 6-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser.
  • Tools: Gane has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has above average grappling (60).

This is the Lewis vs Volkov fight all over again. Except Gane is a slightly better striker. And I don’t know why Lewis is such a heavy underdog. He just cashed against Curtis Blaydes at +380. Two things. Lewis’ last 2 fights, this is a different guy. He was blah when he barely beat Blagoi Ivanov and Ilir Latifi. I then pick Aleksi Oleinik to beat him. But a different, more in shape Lewis showed up. Was able to get back to his feet when taken down. And he looked even better than I could have imagined against Blaydes. Amazingly, Blaydes scored 0 take downs in that fight. Zero! It’s possible Lewis’ wrestling could be a 70 now. Look, I really like Gane. When he fights Francis Ngannou, and he will, I think Gane has a decent chance to win. But he plays a dangerous game at heavyweight. And that’s trying to win with volume vs power. And here, he needs to go 5 rounds without getting knocked out by Lewis. So that’s why I said I see Volkov vs Lewis playing out here again. Gane will be winning the fight. He’s going to out land Lewis. Lewis will have a hard time hitting Gane. But then Lewis will eventually land the power shot and all he needs is one clean shot. Plus, don’t be surprised if Lewis clinches Gane against the fence or even takes Gane down. I think Lewis actually has a wrestling advantage. But with Lewis being a +270 underdog, come on. Total disrespect. How can you not pick him when he’s priced like that?

Chris’ Pick: Lewis by 2nd round knockout.


Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz

  • Jose Aldo
  • Age: 34
  • UFC/WEC Record: 1-2 at 135 lbs. 19-6 overall.
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Marlon Vera, Urijah Faber, and Frankie Edgar.
  • Tools: Aldo has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
  • Pedro Munhoz
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 9-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Jimmie Rivera and Brett Johns.
  • Tools: Munhoz has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).

I’m still a little skeptical about Aldo’s move down to 135 lbs so late in his career. Especially after all the stories I read over the years that he was going to have to move up to 155 lbs because he had such a hard time making 145 lbs. But I probably should stop doubting him at this point. I thought he beat Marlon Moraes. And he looked good against Petr Yan, but lost that because Aldo doesn’t have the cardio to go past 3 rounds. Then he actually used his 70 wrestling to beat Vera. Normally he only uses his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet, but the striking was close. Vera even won the 1st round. So Aldo took Vera down in the 3rd and controlled him there to win the fight. This is a fight that the public thinks is a pick em and I don’t. I think Aldo should be at least -250. Munhoz won’t be able to get the fight on the ground. On the feet, I think Aldo’s striking is better, but even if I’m wrong and Munhoz comes in with 70 striking, Aldo will still have a big power advantage. This is only a 3 round fight. I don’t see how Aldo loses here.

Chris’ Pick: Aldo by 1st round knockout.


Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque

  • Michael Chiesa
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 4-0 at 170 lbs. 11-4 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Beneil Bariush. Beat Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos.
  • Tools: Chiesa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus plus grappling (80).
  • Vicente Luque
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 13-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Submitted Tyron Woodley.
  • Tools: Luque has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).

I know I’m kinda going out on a limb here. I know that the oddsmakers and the betting public see this as a close fight. I don’t. And I see an inefficiency here. Chiesa should be priced at around -300. Look, I understand why people see this as a close fight. Luque is coming off a win over a “wrestler” in Woodley. Luque also submitted him. But there’s a bunch of things to look at. Luque hasn’t fought a wrestler in years. He knocked out Belal Muhmammad in a little over a minute before Muhammad could go for the take downs. Yeah, that could happen here. Since then, the best wrestler Luque has fought was Barbarena. With Woodley, he’s a shell of his former self. Going into that fight, I down graded his wrestling to a 60, with how he was dominated by Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. And I’ll admit, Woodley looked a little better against Luque. He was very aggressive. Maybe he had 65 wrestling that night. But Luque tagged him and it was over. I’ve even upgraded Luque’s grappling to a 65, even though I’m not that confident. It could still be a 60. With Chiesa, I’m really not sure why people are under rating him. I really research Neil Magny going into him fighting Chiesa. And I’m very confident in saying Magny has 70 wrestling. I picked Magny to beat Chiesa. Then I saw Chiesa easily get the take down. Control Magny on the ground. Towards the middle of the fight, I thought, okay, Chiesa is going to lose steam, Magny is going to start doing what he does, really take over in the second half. But Chiesa dominated him for all 5 rounds. Easy take downs. Out grappled a 70 wrestler, with plus cardio, the whole fight. How do I not grade Chiesa’s grappling tool an 80 after that fight? That really was Khabib like dominance. So I’m looking at how this fight plays out and guys, Magny has better grappling than Luque. Magny had more of a chance to keep it on the feet. And don’t forget, I’m not even confident Luque’s grappling is a 65, it could be a 60. Long story short, yes, if this fight stays on the feet, Chiesa will eventually get knocked out. But it won’t stay on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Chiesa by 1st round submission.


Tecia Torres vs Angela Hill

  • Tecia Torres
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 9-7
  • Key Wins: Beat Sam Hughes, Michelle Waterson, and Brianna van Buren.
  • Tools: Torres has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
  • Angela Hill
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 7-7
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michelle Waterson and Claudia Gadelha.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Maryna Moroz and Ashley Yoder. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
  • Tools: Hill has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).

Hill has really been improving her last few fights. She lost split decisions to Waterson and Gadelha, but then bounced back to out class Yoder. And after the Yoder win, I can’t deny that her striking is now a 65. Which is making me change my pick from Torres to Hill. Now, don’t get me wrong. Torres has looked much better too her last couple fights. But I’m less sure about her wrestling. It could be a 55. Van Buren was able to take her down a couple times and have some success in the clinch with Torres. I’m also picking Hill because she should have more power. But these are slight differences. It’s going to be a close fight.

Chris’ Pick: Hill by split decision.


Casey Kenney vs Yadong Song

  • Casey Kenney
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 5-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Cruz.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Nathaniel Wood, Ray Borg, Heili Alateng and Manny Bermudez.
  • Tools: Kenney has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70).
  • Yadong Song
  • Age: 23
  • UFC Record: 5-1-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Arantes and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera.
  • Tools: Yadong has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

When Kenney first came into the UFC, he looked really one dimensional. Since then, he’s been steadily improving his striking. Especially in his last 2 fights. Last fight with Dominick Cruz shows up as a L on his record, but the striking was pretty close to equal. The fight was closer to a draw than a Cruz win. It’s possible Yadong’s wrestling could be a 65. He did get taken down a few times by Kyler Phillips. But he also took Phillips down and stayed on top at the end of the fight. I think Kenney is a pretty safe pick because he’s got two legit paths to win. Although taking Yadong down would be safer as Yadong will have a power advantage.

Chris’ Pick: Kenney by decision.


Rafael Fiziev vs Bobby Green

  • Rafael Fiziev
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Renato Moicano. Beat Marc Diakiese.
  • Tools: Fiziev has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Bobby Green
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 6-6-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
  • Key Wins: Beat Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
  • Tools: Green has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).

When this fight was first announced. I thought Fiziev would be priced around -450. To my surprise, when the odds came out, he was only at -300. Then I was surprised again to be public money coming in on Green. To me, this is a case where the majority of the betting public is not completely familiar with Fiziev. Yes, I thought Green won his last fight with Thiago Moises. But Fiziev’s striking is on another tier. And the power difference is vast. Green is pretty durable but I don’t see this fight going the distance.

Chris’ Pick: Fiziev by 2nd round knockout.


Drako Rodriguez vs Vince Morales

  • Drako Rodriguez
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Aiemann Zahabi.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and a 5-1 striker.
  • Tools: Rodriguez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Vince Morales
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 1-4
  • Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat a 7-1 striker.
  • Tools: Morales has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

Really close fight. Before the odds came out, I thought I might be able to get Rodriguez at + money, being that he was upset and knocked out by Aiemann Zahabi in his last fight. But that’s that the case as he’s priced at about -150. To me, Morales doesn’t look like the same guy he was when he fought Yadong Song. He has close to 60 striking in that fight. But then his last fight was against a 60 striker in Chris Guttierez. And he was totally out classed on the feet. Maybe because the leg kicks did serious damage early. Maybe Morales striking has regressed to a 50? For that reason, plus I think Rodriguez is better on the ground, I give Drako a slight edge here.

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.


Alonzo Menifield vs Ed Herman

  • Alonzo Menifield
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Menifield has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Ed Herman
  • Age: 40
  • UFC Record: 13-11
  • Key Losses: Lost to CB Dollaway. Split decision loss to Gian Villante.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Patrick Cummins. 
  • Tools: Herman has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

If you look at Herman’s record, you’ll see a submission win over Mike Rodriguez. But everybody who saw that fight knows what really happened. Rodriguez knocked Herman out with a body shot, but because the referee thought the blow was below the belt, Herman was saved and got a time out. Look, I get why the UFC made this fight. Menifield has lost 2 of his last 3 fights. And the losses came against durable veterans. Devin Clark is very durable. Menifield gassed himself out going for the finish. And the good Ovince St Preux showed up against Menifieild. Was a close fight until OSP knocked him out. Yes, Herman has a history of being durable. But he’s now 40 years old. For all intents and purposes, he was knocked out in his last fight. Looking at the tools, Menifield has a monster advantage. All Menifield has to do is stay patient and not gas out if he can’t get Herman out early.

Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round knockout.


Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne

  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 5-6
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
  • Key Wins: Beat Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
  • Tools: Kowalkiewicz has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Jessica Penne
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Lost to Danielle Taylor.
  • Key Wins: Split decisions over Lupita Godinez and Randa Markos
  • Tools: Penne has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).

Close fight. It’s priced about where it should be with Kowalkiewicz a slight -130 favorite. Kowalkiewicz was out classed in her last fight, but it was against a top 5 contender in Xiaonan Yan. Meanwhile Penne’s last fight was against prospect Lupita Godinez. Pretty vast difference. Although Penne looked really good considering she hasn’t fought in 4 years. But that fight with Godinez was as close as it gets. The judges could’ve gone either way on the decision. Here in this fight, I see Penne being able to get a couple take downs here and there. But Kowalkiewicz will get back up and should get the better of the striking. This fight could really come down to who the judges are and how much they score take downs.

Chris’ Pick: Kowalkiewicz by decision.


Manel Kape vs Ode Osbourne

  • Manel Kape
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 15-6
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker.
  • Tools: Kape has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Ode Osbourne
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 9-3
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Osbourne has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

Yes, Osbourne looks flashy. His striking is slightly above average. A 55 grade. But Kape has proven to be on another level. I was skeptical going into his UFC debut against Alexandre Pantoja. The betting line was a pick em. Pantoja won, but it wasn’t the landslide I thought we’d see. Kape held his own and stuffed the one take down attempt by Pantoja. Kape is better everywhere, will mix and match his wrestling, but ultimately will get the KO.

Chris’ Pick: Kape by 2nd round knockout.


Miles Johns vs Anderson dos Santos

  • Miles Johns
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
  • Tools: Johns has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Anderson dos Santos
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 21-8
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to Andre Ewell.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 17-4 grappler.
  • Tools: dos Santos has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).

Dos Santos’ grappling has proved to be better than I thought. He was able to take Andre Ewell down a couple times. He submitted Martin Day in the 1st round. But he’s not going to be able to get to his grappling going against a 60 wrestler in Johns. Johns is coming off a big knockout over Natividad. 3rd career KO in 11 wins. Perhaps he’s found some power in his hands.

Chris’ Pick: Johns by 2nd round knockout.


Victoria Leonardo vs Melissa Gatto

  • Victoria Leonardo
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 8-3
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0-1 striker. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
  • Tools: Leonardo has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Melissa Gatto
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 6-0-2
  • Key Draws: Fought a 9-4-1 striker to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Karol Rosa.
  • Tools: Gatto has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Gatto’s grappling tool is tough to figure out. On the one hand, she has 6 wins and 4 of them are submissions. Her last submission win? Over Karol Rosa, who’s gone 3-0 in the UFC so far. But. In the Rosa fight, Gatto was getting out grappled. But. When Gatto was on her back, she caught Rosa in a kiumra and got the submission. And then there’s the fight before that. Gatto fought a 9-4 wrestler. The hard part in figuring out what to grade Gatto’s wrestling, is her opponent would take Gatto down and I’m not too sure how hard Gatto tried at getting back up. She’s confident off her back, was going for submissions. Most of that fight with the wrestler, Gatto was on her back. She didn’t get the submission and the fight ended up being a split draw. So I think that’s something she needs to learn is that in the UFC, you don’t get too many wins being content to fight off your back the whole fight. That could happen here with Leonardo. But Gatto hasn’t fought for 3 years. Long layoff. I think she’ll be smart to keep this fight on the feet where she has a striking advantage.

Chris’ Picks: Gatto by decision.


Johnny Munoz vs James Simmons

  • Johnny Munoz
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-1
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Tools: Munoz has fringe average striking (45) and above average grappling (60).
  • Jamey Simmons
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 7-3
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Simmons has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I understand why Munoz is more than a 2 to 1 favorite. He made his UFC debut against Joseph Nathan Maness and the judges got it wrong. Munoz won that fight, dominated in the wrestling. Has 60 wrestling. He’s a good prospect, albeit a little one dimensional. And then Simmons makes his UFC debut against Giga Chikadze. Gets knocked out in about 4 minutes. So I understand. But what I think a lot of people don’t know is that the Chikadze fight was at 145 lbs. Simmons usually fights at 135 lbs. Simmons fought on short notice. This Munoz fight is at 135 lbs. And when Simmons grappled with Chikadze, the bigger guy, he didn’t do that bad. Now with a full training camp, I think Simmons might be taken down, but he should be able to get back up. Being that a lot of judges seem to be more impressed by striking than wrestling lately, I’m picking Simmons because he should get the better of the striking and with him priced at around +185, it’s worth the roll of the dice.

Chris’ Pick: Simmons by decision.

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