Edson Barboza vs Giga Chikadze
- Edson Barboza
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 145 lbs. 14-8 UFC record at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Beat Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
- Tools: Barboza has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cub Swanson. Beat Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Tools: Chikadze has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Barboza to me is starting to look like an actual title contender at 145 lbs, despite his age. I was wrong when I graded his striking a 65. It’s at least a 70. When he fought Burgos, He out struck Burgos by a little bit in the 1st, but then the 2nd was close. It’s possible Barboza was starting to slow down. But we’ll never know because Barboza knocked Burgos out early in the 3rd. With Chikadze, he might be unlocking the power in his hands now. That’s 2 consecutive 1st round KOs over Cub Swanson and Jamey Simmons. And the fight before that, he was close to knocking out Morales in the 3rd. But I’m not completely convinced his power is a 70. 4 of his 6 UFC wins are decisions. And even though he did get the KO over Swanson, body shot KOs are a little fluky, they don’t happen that often. And Simmons is pretty average. Fringe UFC level fighter. Not a surprise Chikadze got the KO. I can confidently say the power is at least a 60. I could be wrong, but I’m not sold on his power being a 70 yet. So I think there’s decent value with Barboza at a close to pick em price. I expect the striking to be close, but Barboza should have more power and that’ll be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Barboza by 2nd round knockout.
Bryan Battle vs Gilbert Urbina
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Tools: Battle has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has average grappling (50).
- Gilbert Urbina
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Tools: Urbina has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Battle was getting beat in his last fight on TUF with Andre Petroski. But Petroski made a mistake, kept his neck out for too long on a single leg and got caught in a choke. Those happen sometimes. Like flash knockouts. But when Battle was able to show it, his striking looked like a 55. Urbina seems to have close to the grappling that Petroski has. Battle might get taken down a couple times, but he should be able to get back up and out strike Urbina. Could be a close fight.
Chris’ Pick: Battle by decision.
Ricky Turcios vs Brady Hiestand
- Ricky Turcios
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision over Steve Garcia.
- Tools: Turcios has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Brady Hiestand
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 10-4 fighter.
- Tools: Hiestand has fringe average striking (45) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Yes, Hiestand has 55 wrestling. He’s pretty decent for a guy with 6 pro fights, But he’s a bit one dimensional and I see Turcios being able to easily expose him in the stand up. Turcios has way better experience. Fought tougher guys on TUF. Probably has better cardio. Turcios should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Turcios by decision.
Kevin Lee vs Daniel Rodriguez
- Kevin Lee
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 0-1 at 170 lbs. 11-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jake Matthews, Edson Barboza, and Gregor Gillespie. Submitted Magomed Mustafaev, Francisco Trinaldo, and Michael Chiesa.
- Tools: Lee has near plus striking (65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
The more time that goes by, the less bad the Charles Oliveira loss looks for Lee. Matter of fact, he was winning that fight using his wrestling to stay on top of Oliveira, landing strikes. But then Oliveira caught him in a choke at the start of the 3rd round and it was over, just like that. Rodriguez gets the biggest step up in competition in his career. A big spot for him. But I haven’t seen him show the tools he’s going to need to beat Lee. Specifically with the wrestling. Even though Lee is moving back up to 170 lbs, he should be strong enough to take Rodriguez down and go to work.
Chris’ Pick: Lee by 1st round submission.
Andre Petroski vs Micheal Gillmore
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Tools: Petroski has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
- Micheal Gillmore
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-3
- Tools: Gillmore has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average wrestling (45).
Chris’ Pick: Petroski by 1st round submission.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Makhmud Muradov
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Tools: Meerschaert has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Makhmud Muradov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 25-6
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andrew Sanchez, Trevor Smith, a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Beat Alessio Di Chirico.
- Tools: Muradov has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
Muradov was way more dominant over Andrew Sanchez than I remember. Out struck him by about a 2 to 1 clip. And I’m pretty confident that Sanchez’s striking is a 60. Which means I’m going to upgrade Muradov’s striking to a plus 70 tool. And Sanchez only attempted one take down. Didn’t get close. Which means that I have to grade Muradov’s wrestling a 60. As far as this fight goes, Meerschaert will probably be able to get Muradov on the ground a couple times. But that will be the only time Muradov faces any real danger in this fight. I was originally going to pick Meerschaert, but I forgot how much Muradov has improved his wreslting. Muradov is a bit too heavy for me at -450. In my opinion, Meerschaert is a live underdog because of his ability to catch a quick submission.
Chris’ Pick: Muradov by 2nd round knockout.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Alessio di Chirico
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price.
- Tools: Alhassan has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alessio di Chirico
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Eric Spicely. Lost to Bojan Velickovic.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley. Split decision win over Julian Marquez.
- Tools: Di Chirico has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Pretty unpredictable fight. Because I’m not too sure what to think of either guy. I had di Chirico coming into the Buckley fight with 55 striking. Then knocked Buckley out in a little over 2 minutes. Di Chirico’s striking definitely isn’t a 65. Is it a 60? Could be, that’s where I have it graded for now. But we only saw that improved striking for 2 minutes. And Alhassan has continued to not look like the same guy he used to be. He’s lost 3 in a row now. On paper, this could be a close fight, but projection wise, it’s easy to see that both guy’s careers are heading in opposite directions.
Chris’ Pick: di Chirico by decision.
Sam Alvey vs Wellington Turman
- Sam Alvey
- Age: 35
- UFC record: 10-10-1
- Key Draws: Fought Da Un Jung to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Prachnio.
- Tools: Alvey has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
- Wellington Turman
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 striker and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker.
- Tools: Turman has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Turman showed some real good promise when he made his UFC debut, almost beating Karl Roberson. And he still does have promise, but he’s still young and the guys he lost to are really good. So why am I picking a guy in Alvey who seems over the hill? Because it’s the worst style matchup for Turman. A 60 grade tool is a great foundational block for any prospect. But Alvey has sneaky wrestling, will be able to stuff the take downs. And Turman’s chin hasn’t held up well as he’s been knocked out in the 1st round of his last 2 fights.
Chris’ Pick: Alvey by 2nd round knockout.
Dustin Jacoby vs Darren Stewart
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 14-5-1
- UFC Record: 3-0-1 in his second UFC stint at 205 lbs.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Maxim Grishin and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jacoby has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Darren Stewart
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-5 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Kevin Holland and Edmen Shahbazyan.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd. Beat Bevon Lewis. Split decision win over Deron Winn.
- Tools: Stewart has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
There’s a little bit of a risk in picking Stewart due to him moving up to 205 lbs. Plus he looked extremely flat in his last fight with Eryk Anders. But I’m betting on that being because the weight cut to 185 lbs was just too much on him. Yes, Jacoby has helium. And to the eye, it looked like he out struck Cutelaba. But how much of the striking was impacted by Cutelaba gassing so early in the fight from going so wrestling heavy in the 1st round? I’m not sure, but I’ve upgraded Jacoby’s striking to a 65, albeit with only 55 power. And that’s why I’m picking Stewart, because I think he’ll have a big power advantage. Jacoby is a smaller light heavyweight too.
Chris’ Pick: Stewart by decision.
Vanessa Demopoulos vs JJ Aldrich
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Demopoulos has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Beat Polyana Viana and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Tools: Aldrich has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
It was only 37 seconds, but it looks like Demopoulos has made some improvements in her striking. Unfortunately for her, she takes on a really tough matchup in Aldrich, who’s going to make this a stand up fight. It’s possible that Demopoulos could have more power, could land a KO. But more than likely, Aldrich will be able to use her superior striking to win on points.
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
Pat Sabatini vs Jamall Emmers
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Sabatini has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 17-14 striker. Knocked out by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Tools: Emmers has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Sabatini is still a mystery to me because I really haven’t seen too much of his striking. Because his grappling is so dominant and he usually sticks to that most of his fights. I have his wrestling graded as a 60 for now, but it could be a 65 based on how dominant he was over Connelly. But I like Emmers in this fight because he should have the better striking. Emmers is far from a lock though. Sabatini could get a few take downs. Might have more power than Emmers. But the price seems right to me, Emmers at -125.
Chris’ Pick: Emmers by decision.
Leomana Martinez vs Guido Cannetti
- Leomana Martinez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler and a 3-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Martinez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Guido Cannetti
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Enrique Briones.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Cannetti has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Based on how these guys looked in their last fights, this could be closer than people think. Cannetti might be underestimated. He did look good in the 1st round when he fought Marlon Vera. But he’s 41 years old. Doesn’t fight that often. Projection wise, there could be some regression and Martinez is coming in with a decent amount of hype.
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.