Darren Till vs Derek Brunson
- Darren Till
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-3-1 overall. 1-1 at 185 lbs.
- Key Draw: Fought Nicolas Dalby to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone. Beat Stephen Thompson. Split decision over Kelvin Gastelum.
- Tools: Till has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Derek Brunson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 13-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edmen Shahbazyan and Uriah Hall. Beat Kevin Holland, Ian Heinisch, and Elias Theodorou.
- Tools: Brunson has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
Striker vs wrestler. That’s really what this fight comes down to. Brunson has revitalized his career by focusing on and improving his wrestling. It’s now a 70 grade tool. But he’s not the only one with improved wrestling. I had Till with 60 wrestling going into his fight with Robert Whittaker. Whittaker who has 65 wrestling. Whittaker tried to go for a few take downs. Didn’t get close. Till stuffed all of them. So I’m grading Till’s wrestling a 65 now. But it’s possible it could even be a 70. Will Brunson get some take downs? Probably. He’s a better wrestler than Whittaker. But unlike Holland, Till should be able to get back up. The fight is 5 rounds. Lots of time to stand and striker where he’ll have a big advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Till by decision.
Tom Aspinall vs Serghei Spivac
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Jake Collier and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Aspinall has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tai Tuivasa and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Tools: Spivac has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).
Aspinall looks like a guy that will be fighting for the heavyweight tile in the next few years, but Spivac is the worst style matchup for him and Spivac is also starting to resemble a title contender himself. Aspinall did show some impressive grappling with Arlovski, but Spivac is on a whole other level. That was clear when Spivac convincingly out grappled Andrei OIeinik. Spivac is going to be able to take Aspinall and that’ll be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by 2nd round submission.
David Zawada vs Alex Morono
- David Zawada
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Ramazan Emeev and Danny Roberts.
- Key Wins: Submitted Abubakar Nurmagomedov and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out a 12-4 grappler, a 10-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Zawada has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Alex Morono
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Kenan Song and Max Griffin.
- Tools: Morono has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
I was really confident in Ramazan Emeev going into the Zawada fight. But Emeev barely squeaked by, won a split decision, due to Zawada coming in with improved striking. Despite the 1-2 UFC record, Zawada is someone that could stick around and win some UFC fights. But Morono is a bad matchup for him. It’s possible Zawada has more power and could get the knockout, but it’s pretty likely Morono wins on points, coming in with confidence after knocking out Cerrone.
Chris’ Pick: Morono by decision.
Khalil Rountree vs Modestas Bukauskas
- Khalil Rountree
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders.
- Tools: Rountree has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Bukauskas has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
The careers of both of these guys are going in opposite directions. For awhile, Rountree looked like he had some potential, but suddenly retired. Then came back and lost to Marcin Prachnio. I can’t decide if Rountree’s striking is a 55 or a 60, but I have it as a 60 for now. Bukauskas though really impressed me in his fight with Michel Oleksiejczuk. Fight was super close. Oleksiejczuk won mostly because he had better cardio in the 3rd. I’m pretty confident Bukauskas has the better striking at this point.
Chris’ Pick: Bukauskas by 2nd round knockout.
Luigi Vendramini vs Paddy Pimblett
- Luigi Vendramini
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Fares Ziam.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessin Ayari.
- Tools: Vendramini has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 16-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Julian Erosa.
- Tools: Pimblett has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
Being how popular Pimblett is in the UK, I’m really surprised the UFC would serve him up such a tough matchup in his UFC debut. But I’m even more surprised that Vendramini finds himself the underdog. I don’t get it. Vendramini has legit 60 grappling. Even if I’m under rating Pimblett’s grappling and it’s more like a 65, he’s still not going to be good enough to keep Vendramini down the majority of the fight. Vendramini will force most of this fight on the feet. Pimblett’s weakness. I think Vendramini should be a -250 favorite and this price is easily the best value on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Vendramini by 2nd round knockout.
Molly McCann vs Ji Yeon Kim
- Molly McCann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Beat Ariane Lipski.
- Tools: McCann has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ji Yeon Kim
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nadia Kassem. Split decision over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian.
- Tools: Kim has above average striking (60). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Really tough fight to pick. Kim showed in her last fight, even though she lost to Alexa Grasso, she looked much improved. Grasso out struck her, but it wasn’t a blow out. Here’s the main question for me. Grasso beat Kim. Then fought Maycee Barber right after that. And I know for sure Grasso showed off 70 striking against Barber. So the question is, when did her striking improve to that level. Was it the Barber fight? Or was it the Kim fight? Because there’s a decent possibility Grasso had 70 striking in the Kim fight and Kim’s striking could be more like a 65 vs a 60. I’m picking Kim for that reason, plus her wrestling should be slightly better. Might be able to mix in a take down or two if she wants.
Chris’ Pick: Kim by split decision.
Jack Shore vs Liudvik Sholinian
- Jack Shore
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Split decision over Hunter Azure.
- Tools: Shore has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Liudvik Sholinian
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Vince Cachero and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Sholinian has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Shore’s last fight with Azure was the first time I’ve really seen his striking. Because all of his fights so far, he just takes his opponent down and dominates them. Which made most people in the betting public think he had 65 grappling. And he was priced as such, a -180 favorite over a 55 wrestler in Azure. And unlike the others, Azure was able to repeatedly get back up and force Shore to strike. Shore’s striking was better than I thought. 60 tool, albeit with 50 power. Shore barely escaped with a split decision win, due to his many take downs. Sholinian is a good matchup for Shore because he has 55 wrestling just like Azure. But Sholinian’s striking is only a 50 with 40 power. Shore should cruise on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Shore by decision.
Charles Jourdain vs Julian Erosa
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-3-1
- UFC Record: 2-2-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Jourdain has near plus striking (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Sean Woodson.
- Tools: Erosa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
It’s possible Erosa can get Jourdain down. And Erosa can definitely threaten with with grappling. But Jourdain should be able to get back up. Will have the better striking. Jourdain at -200 is priced about where it should be.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by 2nd round knockout.
Dalcha Lumgiambula vs Marc Andre Barriault
- Dalcha Lungiambula
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 16-3 striker.
- Tools: Lungiambula has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Barriault has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Very interesting fight. Now, I don’t normally pick fights based on projection. But projecting the cardio of both of these guys is pretty predictable. Barriault having some of the best cardio and Lungiambula some of the worst. Barriault might have a 1-3 UFC record, but he has proven to be durable. Hasn’t been finished in any of his 3 losses. Lungiambula will start fast, get a couple take downs. Try to get Barriault out early. But when he fails to do that, Barriault will start defending more take downs and take over the fight before Lungiambula completely runs out of gas in the 3rd.
Chris’ Pick: Barriault by 3rd round knockout.