Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont
- Aspen Ladd
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yana Kunitskaya. Beat Sijara Eubanks.
- Tools: Ladd has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
- Norma Dumont
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
- Tools: Dumont has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has plus wrestling (70) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Holly Holm gets hurt. Knee injury. She’s out. Ladd steps in. Fascinating fight. Because everyone saw how much better Dumont was at 145 lbs when she fought Felicia Spencer. And the way Dumont out struck Spencer, it’s possible her striking could be a 70, but I have it at a 65 for now. Same thing very well could happen for Ladd and she’s been torturing her body to make the cut to 135 lbs. But how she looks at 145 lbs is a big unknown. But I’m going to pick Ladd because the one thing that is known is that Dumont does not have KO power. 6 career wins. 0 knockouts. Meanwhile Ladd has 9 career wins and 6 knockouts. Big power, although most of the KO’s happen from ground and pound.
Chris’ Pick: Ladd by 2nd round knockout.
Andre Arlovski vs Carlos Felipe
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 10-10 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell.
- Tools: Arlovski has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Carlos Felipe
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-0 striker. Split decision wins over Jake Collier and Justin Tafa.
- Tools: Felipe has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
These guys are so even matched on paper, except Felipe’s wrestling might be slightly better. Arlovski has been turning back so many younger heavyweights. As recently as last year, I thought Arlovski’s striking might have been a 65 when he out struck Tanner Boser. But he took on Chase Sherman last time out and the fight was as close as it gets. Striking was close to equal. And I know for a fact Sherman has 60 striking. Because Sherman just fought Parker Porter and Porter out struck Sherman. And I also know for a fact that Porter doesn’t have 70 striking. Maybe a 65? I can’t say Porter has 60 striking because that would mean Sherman has 55 striking and I know Arlovski’s striking hasn’t regressed that much. So Porter with 65 striking. Sherman with 60 striking. Arlovski with 60 striking. And projection wise, you always have to look at Arlovski’s age, being 42 years old and knowing that at some point, the regression will happen. Meanwhile Felipe is only 26 years old, really young for a heavyweight. He could come in better.
Chris’ Pick: Felipe by split decision.
Jim Miller vs Erick Gonzalez
- Jim Miller
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 21-15
- Key Wins: Submitted Roosevelt Roberts and Clay Guida.
- Tools: Miller has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Erick Gonzalez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Humberto Bandenay.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 7-0-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Gonzalez has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
I really don’t see Gonzalez having any chance of winning here. I watched him struggle and lose to Humberto Bandenay. Yes, the same Bandenay that has well rounded 50 tools and went 1-3 in the UFC before being released. And Bandenay used his wrestling and clinch game to get it done. So what do you think happens here with Miller’s established 60 wrestling?
Chris’ Pick: Miller by 1st round submission.
Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno Silva
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Fiorot has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Mayra Bueno Silva
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
- Tools: Bueno Silva has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average grappling (60).
Despite only being two UFC fights in, Fiorot is already looking like a potential title contender. The most important question of this fight is how good is Fiorot’s wrestling. And I have it graded as a 60, based on what did with Leonardo, who has 55 grappling. Fiorot even took Leonardo down. Bueno Silva showed improved striking in her last fight with de la Rosa. It’s now a 60. But for all this talk of Bueno Silva having big power, I don’t agree with that. She’s got 7 pro wins and only 1 knockout. The KOs just aren’t there. But even if I’m wrong and Bueno Silva does have 60 power, it’s not going to matter. The biggest problem for Bueno Silva in this fight is going to be Fiorot’s likely cardio advantage. Bueno Silva really slowed down in the 3rd against de la Rosa. Fiorot looks like she has plus cardio. Will put a pace on Bueno Silva and I think by mid fight Bueno Silva will fold.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by 2nd round knockout.
Julian Marquez vs Jordan Wright
- Julian Marquez
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Alvey, Darren Stewart, and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Marquez has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Jordan Wright
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Wright has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I have to project a bit to pick this fight because both are so evenly matched. Marquez’s grappling is slightly better, but I don’t think he leans on it to win the fight. So the question I ask myself in picking this fight, is which guy is more likely to come in with improved striking and I’d say Wright. Based on what he did last time out to Pickett, it’s very possible his striking is closer to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Wright by 2nd round knockout.
Andrew Sanchez vs Bruno Silva
- Andrew Sanchez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Beat Khalil Rountree and Markus Perez.
- Tools: Sanchez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 20-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Tools: Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
I was looking forward to seeing how well Silva’s striking would do against Turman, but that never came to fruition. They just grappled the whole time. Back and forth, until Silva, who was in top control, knocked Turman out. It’s very possible that Silva’s striking is a 60, but I can’t grade him there when I haven’t seen it. And the fights I’ve watched of Silva outside the UFC, to me, it’s a 55 grade. But I could be wrong. With Sanchez, we know what we’re getting. Although, after Sanchez knocked Turman out, there was a thought that maybe he was starting to unlock more power, but then he got knocked out by Makhmud Muradov. This fight is a complete coin flip. I’m picking Sanchez because I think he’s going to land more strikes. I can also see Silva looking good early and Sanchez putting a pace on him. Tiring Silva out. Then Sanchez winning the fight in the 2nd half.
Chris’ Pick: Sanchez by split decision.
Danny Roberts vs Ramazan Emeev
- Danny Roberts
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Mike Perry and Michel Pereira.
- Key Wins: Split decision win over David Zawada.
- Tools: Roberts has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ramazan Emeev
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat Sam Alvey. Split decision over David Zawada.
- Tools: Emeev has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
I’m confident in grading Emeev’s wrestling a 65 based on how he did with Anthony Rocco Martin a couple years ago. So in my opinion, his last fight with Zawada and it being so close has more to do with Zawada improving than Emeev being over rated. Roberts hasn’t fought in close to 2 years. And I’m pretty sure his grappling is a 55 with the way he got taken down and arguably was out grappled by Zelim Imadaev. I think Emeev wins the way he normally wins here.
Chris’ Pick: Emeev by decision.
Loopy Godinez vs Luana Carolina
- Lupita Godinez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Tools: Godinez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Luana Carolina
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker and a 7-0 wrestler. Split decision over Poliana Botelho.
- Tools: Carolina has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
When Godinez fought Penne and Godinez lost by split decision, I didn’t think too much of it. Godinez is young in her career. Penne is okay, not great. 60 wrestling. But then Penne fought Karolina Kowalkiewicz. And I know for a fact Kowalkiewicz’s wrestling is at least a 55. And Penne took her down like it was nothing. Submitted Kowalkiewicz in the 1st round. I was impressed. I upgraded Penne’s grappling to a near plus 65. Which also means Godinez’s wrestling is more like a 65. And she proved it when she dominated Juarez from start to finish with her wrestling. Carolina is an elite prospect with 65 striking. I could see her possibly fighting for the 115 lb title one day. But Godinez and her wrestling is just the worst matchup for Carolina.
Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.
Ludovit Klein vs Nate Landwehr
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 17-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 4-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat an 11-2 striker.
- Tools: Klein has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice).
- Tools: Landwehr has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I really thought that Klein was robbed in his last fight with Michael Trizano. The striking was close to equal. Klein landed the more powerful shots and mixed in a few take downs too. I’m confident that Klein’s striking is at least a 60. Could be a 65. And Klein’s cardio held up against Trizano too, which is a big deal. I don’t see any path to victory for Landwehr.
Chris’ Pick: Klein by decision.
Danaa Batgeral vs Brandon Davis
- Danaa Batgerel
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Submitted an 8-2 grappler.
- Tools: Batgerel has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Brandon Davis
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Giga Chikadze and Kyung Ho Kang.
- Key Wins: Submitted Randy Costa.
- Tools: Davis has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
We never really got to see what Davis could do at 135 lbs because he kept taking short notice fights. But the 2 he had at bantamweight were his best. Submitting (surviving) Randy Costa. And a split decision loss to Kyung Ho Kang. Davis also has a split decision loss to Giga Chikadze at 145 lbs that’s aged well. He takes on another really tough dude in Batgeral, but it’s at 135 lbs. And I was skeptical of Batgeral when he came into the UFC, because of his lack of quality wins outside the octagon. But he’s looked really good his last couple fights. This will be a close fight. Batgeral has more power. But Davis is really durable and can survive 1st round storms, like he with Costa. And I’m actually switching my pick because of that. Batgeral has two 1st round knockouts in a row. I don’t think his cardio is that great. I see him taking it to Davis in the 1st. Then gassing out and Davis taking over the fight somewhere at the halfway point.
Chris’ Pick: Davis by split decision.
Ariane Carnelossi vs Istela Nunes
- Ariane Carnelossi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Na Liang and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Carnelossi has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Istela Nunes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
- Tools: Nunes has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Nunes is better than the betting public thinks. Right now Carnelossi is at -190, which is too heavy. I’m picking Carnelossi because the one big advantage she has in this fight is her power. But if she doesn’t get the knockout, the striking should be really close and could go either way. I can see Nunes having a speed and cardio advantage that could give Carnelossi problems in the 2nd half of the fight and she’s definitely a live under dog at +155.
Chris’ Pick: Carnelossi by 2nd round knockout.