Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori
- Paulo Costa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. Split decision over Yoel Romero.
- Tools: Costa has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-3-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Tools: Vettori has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
Part of me doesn’t want to grade Costa’s striking a 65. Part of me says it’s a 70. Based on what he did with Uriah Hall and Yoel Romero. And the Costa that fought Adesanya was a different Costa. It seemed like Costa was intimidated and couldn’t let his hands go. His striking was a 65 in that title fight. Vettori on the other hand put up a more competitive fight with Adesanya. Got some take downs. Landed some strikes. Vettori’s 70 striking is real, albeit with 60 power. I don’t pick based off projection unless I have to. And I don’t want to project which Costa shows up in this fight. Based off of how both of these guys looked in their last fight, Vettori has the better striking. Costa does have more power, but this is a 5 round fight. Vettori’s cardio is way better. And he’s durable. I think Vettori should be priced around -200, so when I see that the line has opened up with him at -140, I think there’s some value there.
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.
Grant Dawson vs Rick Glenn
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Michael Trizano. Beat Nad Narimani.
- Tools: Dawson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Rick Glenn
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Kevin Aguilar.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Silva. Beat Gavin Tucker. Split decision wins over Dennis Bermudez and Phillipe Nover.
- Tools: Glenn has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
It might appear to some that Dawson deserves to go down a notch after almost losing to Santos. But that’s because people might not realize how good Santos is. He’s very, very good. But rarely fights. In any case, Dawson’s tools are still legit. His grappling could be a 70 now, which is why I’m confident in him beating Glenn. Despite how improved Glenn looked at his new weight class at 155 lbs. He could very well be a better fighter at lightweight, but he’s going to be a smaller lightweight, so I don’t see Glenn’s wrestling being better than the 55 I have him graded at right now. Dawson at -300 is about right, but I see that price getting heavier as we get closer to the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by 1st round submission.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards
- Jessica-Rose Clark
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-6
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sarah Alpar. Beat Paige VanZant.
- Tools: Clark has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Yanan Wu.
- Tools: Edwards has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Really interesting fight. On paper, you could say that it’s going to be close, but that Edwards should win because of her having more power. But based on how Clark bullied Alpar around, she might be unlocking KO power. I have her power graded as a 50 for now, but it’s possible it could be a 60, matching up with what Edwards has. And I’m pretty surprised Clark is a -175 favorite coming in. I thought Edwards would be favored around -150. Lot of value on Edwards. But I’m picking Edwards because I try not pick based on projection when I don’t have to and I’m more confident in Edwards’ power for now.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by 2nd round knockout.
Seung Woo Choi vs Alex Caceres
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Youssef Zalal and an 8-1 grappler.
- Tools: Choi has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alex Caceres
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-10
- Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
- Key Wins: Beat Chase Hooper and Kevin Croom.
- Tools: Caceres has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
Choi’s knockout over Erosa looked really good and it’s possible that he’s unlocking more power in his hands, but for now, I still have his power graded a 55. Caceres best path to winning here is getting Choi down and catching him in a submission. As long as Choi avoids that, he should win here with his striking. But I’m going nowhere near betting this fight with Choi at -275. That’s a trap. Caceres is a live dog with his grappling and better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Choi by decision.
Dwight Grant vs Francisco Trinaldo
- Dwight Grant
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlo Pedersoli. Split decision wins over Alan Jouban and a well rounded 12-3 fighter.
- Tools: Grant has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Francisco Trinaldo
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 16-7
- Key Losses: Lost to James Vick.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert, Chad Laprise, Paul Felder, and Evan Dunham. Beat John Makdessi and Bobby Green.
- Tools: Trinaldo has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Trinaldo’s last couple fights, he hasn’t been as interested in using his wrestling. But he’s going to need to in this fight because Grant probably has more power than he does. Although I could be wrong on that. I see Trinaldo doing what he needs to do to win this fight and that’s take Grant down as often as he can and grind it out. I’ve seen Trinaldo at -120 and that’s priced right. A part of me says Trinaldo should be closer to -175, but the threat of Grant knocking Trinaldo out is real.
Chris’ Pick: Trinaldo by split decision.
Nicolae Negumereanu vs Ike Villanueva
- Nicolae Negumereanu
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over Aleksa Camur.
- Tools: Negumereanu has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Ike Villanueva
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 18-12
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker.
- Tools: Villanueva has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
I have Villanueva graded with 55 striking for now, but the issue with him is that it’s always all or nothing in the 1st round. Negumereanu is durable. Has cardio. I see Negumereanu clinching with Villanueva against the fence. Tiring him out. Then taking over in the 2nd round.
Chris’ Pick: Negumereanu by 3rd round knockout.
Jun Yong Park vs Gregory Rodrigues
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi.
- Tools: Park has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Tools: Rodrigues has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Rodrigues was a heavy favorite going into his Contender fight with Jordan Williams and got upset. Since then, he’s showed why he went in there a heavy favorite, winning 3 in a row, including a win over Todorovic. It’s possible Rodrigues’ grappling could be more of a 60 than a 55. Park might take Rodrigues down a couple times, because that’s what he does. But that’s a dangerous place for Park considering how Rodrigues can end the fight there. On the feet, Rodrigues has a big power advantage. I’m surprised this is a pick em type fight with Park a slight favorite at -120. I would’ve opened the lines with Rodrigues as a -200 favorite.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 2nd round knockout.
Mason Jones vs David Onama
- Mason Jones
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 6-2 grappler, and a 12-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Jones has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- David Onama
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Onama has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Onama looks like a promising prospect. He trains at Glory MMA. Probably a bright future. But despite the undefeated record and all 8 wins coming by finish, he hasn’t fought anyone anywhere close to the level of Jones. He’s going to get the stiffest test of his career on a few days notice. Jones has proven 65 near plus striking. I just don’t see how Jones loses here. Jones is at -500 right now. It’s heavy, but I think justified.
Chris’ Pick: Jones by 2nd round knockout.
Tabatha Ricci vs Maria Oliveira
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Ricci has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Maria Oliveira
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-4
- Tools: Oliveira has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m pretty surprised that Ricci opens as a -210 favorite. In my opinion, Oliveira should be around a -125 favorite. Should be close to a pick em. Yes, Ricci is way better than she looked in her debut against Manon Fiorot. That was at 125 lbs. But Ricci’s natural weight class is 115 lbs, where this fight will be at. With Oliveira, yes she was starched on The Contender, but starched by current title contender Marina Rodriguez. Plus Oliveira was 21 years old at the time. I have both fighters graded the same, but I have more confidence in Oliveira’s power than I do Ricci’s. I think it’s possible Ricci’s power could be as low as a 45. She only has 1 career knockout.
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by 2nd round knockout.
Jamie Pickett vs Laureano Staropoli
- Jamie Pickett
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker.
- Tools: Pickett has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Laureano Staropoli
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Beat Thiago Alves.
- Tools: Staropoli has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
Close fight. Staropoli likely has better cardio. Pickett has better wrestling, more power. I can see Pickett getting the better of it early. Landing more powerful shots. But Staropoli is durable, will stick around and probably win the 3rd round. Pickett will have to mix in some take downs to win in a fight that could go either way.
Chris’ Pick: Pickett by split decision.
Jai Herbert vs Khama Worthy
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Tools: Herbert has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Khama Worthy
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-7
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Kyle Nelson, Billy Quarantillo, and Matt Bessette.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith. Submitted Luis Pena and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Worthy has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Herbert has started 0-2 in the UFC, but he got beat by contender Renato Moicano and was doing well against Francisco Trinaldo before getting knocked out in the 3rd. Despite that, his striking is a legit 65 that’s better than what Worthy’s got. Striker vs striker. Herbert will get it done.
Chris’ Pick: Herbert by 2nd round knockout.
Jeff Molina vs Daniel Lacerda
- Jeff Molina
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Qileng Aori and a 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Molina has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
- Daniel Lacerda
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Lacerda has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Molina put on a real show in his last fight with Qileng. Cardio was great. Poured it on in the 3rd when Qileng started to gas. Bright future. But as much as I like Molina, I like Lacerda even more. Molina is the known commodity. -160 favorite. Great value on Lacerda at +130. His only loss was due to a TKO from an arm injury. I watched Lacerda take on a 5-2-1 grappler. And Lacerda was dominant. Dominated the striking. The grappler took Lacerda down. And a couple minutes later Lacerda got the submission. I like Lacerda’s striking better than Molina’s.
Chris’ Pick: Lacerda by decision.
Livinha Souza vs Randa Markos
- Livinha Souza
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker and a 14-1 grappler. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat Ashley Yoder and a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Tools: Souza has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
- Randa Markos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-11-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key WIns: Submitted Felice Herrig and Angela Hill. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision win over Carla Esparza.
- Tools: Markos has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
This fight could go either way. Markos started off her UFC career pretty strong. Picking up wins over the likes of Esparza, Torres, Hill, Herrig. Those are really strong wins. But fast forward to 2021 and she has a losing UFC record, has lost 4 in a row, lost 5 of her last 6, granted she’s faced a super tough strength of schedule. There’s no way Markos gets this fight on the ground, but I don’t think she’d want to anyway with Souza’s grappling. On the feet, it’s a coin flip. They’re very equal. So I have to use projection to pick here and I think Souza has more runway in her career. Souza priced at -140 is about right.
Chris’ Pick: Souza by split decision.
Jonathan Martinez vs Zviad Lazishvili
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Thomas Almeida.
- Tools: Martinez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Zviad Lazishvili
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Lazishvili has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Martinez’s 65 striking is still intact even though he got knocked out by Davey Grant. We now know Grant’s striking is real. That said, I don’t know what Lazishvili has to offer for Martinez. Lazishvili is a grappler, won’t be able to take Martinez down.
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by 1st round knockout.